Overnight & Global
The de-risking stabilised, and then the catalyst that caused it was refuted. The S&P closed −0.10% at 7,358 — holding its 50-DMA at 7,349 — the Dow added 0.35%, the Russell rose 0.41% and the VIX eased back to 18.6 (Reuters/TheStreet, 24 Jun). The bounce was deliberately set up around one event, and the event delivered: after the bell Micron printed a record fiscal-Q3 — revenue $41.5bn against its own $33.5bn guide midpoint, non-GAAP EPS $25.11 vs $19.15, and a fiscal-Q4 guide of $50bn ± $1bn at ~86% gross margin, with 2026 HBM fully booked and DRAM spot prices up 52% since January (StockTitan/S&P Global, 24 Jun). That is the hardest rebuttal yet to Tuesday's thesis that hyperscaler AI capex would not earn its return — the demand print arrived bigger than the bill. Asia ratified overnight (Nikkei +3.8%). The curve stayed quiet throughout — the 2Y at 4.20%, the 10Y at 4.49%, the 10Y real at 2.27% — leaving Core PCE (May), due 8:30 ET today, as the last gate on the rebound.
Session Read
United States — the anchor. A measured stabilisation: the S&P −0.10% at 7,358 held the 50-DMA, the Dow +0.35% and the Russell +0.41% as the rotation into duration-light cyclicals and defensives continued, while the Nasdaq 100 (−0.43%) lagged into the Micron print. The after-hours blowout — record $41.5bn revenue, $50bn FQ4 guide, ~86% gross margin (StockTitan, 24 Jun) — reframes the semis complex that led Tuesday's rout: the AI-memory cycle is accelerating, not rolling over, with HBM4 shipping for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin. The set-up into today is a semis rebound meeting the session's binding constraint — the May inflation print.
Europe. Euro Stoxx 50 −0.25% and DAX −0.62%, the early-week bounce fading. The session's outsized move was Rheinmetall, which crashed −18.6% to €949 — its worst day since 1989, ~€7.4bn of market value erased — after Berlin scrapped the multi-billion-euro F126 frigate programme, in which Rheinmetall was the expected lead contractor, in favour of eight smaller TKMS Meko A-200 vessels (CNBC, 24 Jun). The hit was largely company-specific — Hensoldt −3.3%, Renk −7.2%, Leonardo −4.7% fell far less — but it landed against a broader peace-dividend re-rating of the defence complex as investors weigh an end to the Ukraine and Middle East wars: the Forever War premium deflating alongside the Hormuz premium. The policy floor held — the ECB's first hike since 2023 (+25bp to a 2.25% deposit rate, 11 Jun) keeps EUR/USD at 1.137 and the Bund at 2.92% (−3bp) — and the Micron read-through is a tailwind for ASML and the European semi-cap chain into the open.
Asia / EM. Japan led the rebound — the Nikkei +3.8% overnight, recovering most of the week's drawdown even with the BoJ at 1.00% (its highest since 1995, 16 Jun) and JGB 10Y at 2.66%. Korea stabilised after Tuesday's twin circuit-breakers (Kospi −10%); MSCI EM steadied (EEM +0.1%) as the dollar-and-duration beta eased. USD/CNH held at 6.81. The Micron print is a direct positive for the Asian memory and semi-equipment names.
Greece — the franchise. The ATHEX took the imported high-beta de-risking but the import is reversing: a second mild down day Wed (banks −0.5/−1.7% into AGM week, GEK TERNA −0.5%, the infra block — ADMIE, Cenergy, PPC — flat, OTE +1.1% on the defensive bid) after Tuesday's broader fade, with the index off ~1% from Monday's 17-year high. The structural trade is intact: sub-$77 Brent compresses the cost of capital for the long-duration infra / utility / concession block (Cenergy +57% YTD, GEK TERNA +80%, ADMIE +51%), and the deflating Hormuz premium is a net Greek tailwind. Capital return is the live catalyst: Alpha's AGM Friday (€519m FY25 payout, €259m buyback) and METLEN's €600m buyback (running, ex-div €1.00 today) anchor it. The standout single name was Piraeus Port (PPA) +7.3%, bid into its 30 Jun AGM and a 4.85% dividend (€1.896, ex 3 Aug) on FY25 record revenue (€250.8m, +8.6%) — COSCO-controlled, thin free float.
Theme of the Day — Micron refutes the AI-doubt selloff
Tuesday's rout was priced on a single fear: that hyperscaler AI capex of ~$600–700bn (+36–71% YoY) would not earn its return, making long-duration, debt-funded growth the wrong place to be against a higher-for-longer Fed. Micron answered it with data. Record FQ3 revenue of $41.5bn — well above its own guide — a $50bn FQ4 guide at ~86% gross margin, 2026 HBM fully booked, and DRAM spot prices up 52% since January say AI demand is not just holding but accelerating through the memory chokepoint (S&P Global/StockTitan, 24 Jun). The capex bill and the demand print converged the right way. That reframes the de-rating as a positioning flush rather than a thesis break — provided the other half of Tuesday's scare, the rate path, does not reassert itself when Core PCE prints today. The FOMC's own June projections lifted 2026 core PCE to 3.3% and the end-2026 dot to 3.8% (one hike); a hot May print revives the real-yield pressure that no earnings beat can offset.
The Call
Two of the three questions that defined the drawdown resolved bullishly: the S&P held its 50-DMA and Micron's record FQ3 refuted the AI-returns doubt that caused the rout — the demand print landed bigger than the capex bill, and Asia ratified overnight. The cross-asset evidence had said rotation, not rupture all along — the curve barely moved, the dollar firmed only marginally, defensives and small-caps bid — and the fundamentals have now sided with that read. What is not yet settled is the third question, the one that defines the resilient-tightening regime: the rate path. Core PCE today is the arbiter. A cool print clears the Markets Radar's down-path signpost and the bounce earns a second leg; a hot print re-arms the real-yield scare that no earnings beat can offset. Structurally the bulls still hold the cards — 6.4% above the 200-DMA, the cycle half its median life, a deflating Hormuz premium cutting against the hawkish case. Net: the line held and the catalyst flipped; let Core PCE settle whether the regime's binding constraint loosens or bites.
