Dailies.

The free daily publications, published in full. Each one carries the whole system inside it — the commentary roadsigns to the radars, Hormuz feeds the oil and inflation reads.

• Global Market Commentary2026-10-27

  Global Market Commentary — 27 Oct 2026

  **A Monday of relief with the Fed, Big Tech and oil all still ahead.** The S&P gained **0.70% to 7,676.77** and the Nasdaq Composite **0.82% to 26,169.38**, recovering the 22-23 October drop; semiconductors rose **2.8%** (Philadelphia index 11,083) but are still **12.2% lower** in October, and the Nasdaq 100 is **-0.9%** on the week while the Russell 2000 is **+2.1%**. VIX **18.39**.

• Greece News Run2026-10-27

  Greece News Run — 27 Oct 2026

  **Athens fell to a three-month low on Friday, bounced on Monday, and now waits for the bank prints from Thursday.** The General Index closed **26 October at 2,569.82 (+1.56%)** after **2,530.46 on 23 October, its lowest since 28 July**. The driver was external and unchanged: Brent Dec settled **115.81 on 26 October (116.72 on 23 October)**, TTF reached **EUR 96.68/MWh**, and the French long end pressed on bank multiples.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-10-27

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Oct 2026

  We now put the bad outcome over the next 90 days at 48%, up from 40%. Most of that is aligning this monitor with our Iran report; the news adds 2 points. A fourth tanker was hit and Iran declared the Strait closed, but none has sunk and about 14 mb/d still gets out. Oil keeps leaving through the Strait at about 14 million barrels a day, in escorted batches on a US-run route. Iran attacks ships on that route but has not sunk a full tanker.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-30

  Delphic QuickTakes — 30 Sep 2026

  **The most important number on the tape this morning was set before the data that is supposed to decide it.** The 30-year printed **5.613%** on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year **5.29%**, the highest since 2007; both eased into the Asia session (30y **5.56%**, 10y **5.23%**).

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-30

  Global Market Commentary — 30 Sep 2026

  **The long end made its highs on Monday, before the print that is supposed to decide it.** The 30-year traded **5.613%** intraday, the highest since June 2002, and closed **5.566%** (+1.9bp); the 10-year printed **5.29%**, the highest since 2007, and closed **5.236%**, flat on the day and **+27.5bp on the week**.

• Greece News Run2026-09-30

  Greece News Run — 30 Sep 2026

  **Athens is back above 2,700 and above its 20-day, carried by the banks for three sessions, INTO a global long end that printed its highest yields since 2002 on the same day.** That is the whole tension of the tape. The Greek ten-year followed the US thirty-year up - **4.38% on Friday, a 4.48% high on Tuesday, 4.44% this morning** - and the spread to Bunds did not move, so the discount-rate shock has reached the sovereign.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-30

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 30 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile), velocity MIXED, and the physics are improving on evidence that is monthly and multi-source rather than a single print.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-27

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile), velocity MIXED, and the two vectors have swapped sides since 23 September. THE DIPLOMACY DETERIORATED: Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan on Saturday, offered no counter-proposal, and is reported to see a renewed bombing campaign as likely; refuelling and surveillance aircraft were observed near the Strait afterwards and the Houthis sent drones at Riyadh for the first time in years.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-15

  Delphic QuickTakes — 13 Sep 2026

  The UST 10-year printed **5.016%** on the eve of a near-certain hike, and the entire move was REAL — the breakeven and the 5y5y forward both FELL. **Two corrections today, both ours.** We published an equity risk premium of -0.19% on a record low; on the anchor our own valuation standard specifies it is **+0.20%**, the 8th percentile since 1982 — thin, not negative. And on Hormuz, an LNG carrier DID transit and gas DOES have a ship-to-ship workaround.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-15

  Global Market Commentary — 13 Sep 2026

  **THE 10-YEAR BROKE 5%, AND THE WHOLE MOVE IS REAL — BREAKEVENS WENT THE OTHER WAY. THAT IS TIGHTENING WITH CREDIBILITY, AND IT IS WORSE FOR EQUITIES, NOT BETTER.**

• Greece News Run2026-09-15

  Greece News Run — 13 Sep 2026

  **The upgrade is the event, and the upgrade is largely in the price.** Greece formally moves from Advanced Emerging to Developed Market status with FTSE Russell on **21 September**, thirteen years after the 2016 downgrade, with a parallel STOXX upgrade putting nine Greek names into the Europe 600. Thirty-two names enter the FTSE Developed indices. This is a genuine structural re-rating of the market's investor base: the buyer pool shifts from EM-mandated funds, for whom Greece was a meaningful weight, to DM-mandated funds, for whom it is **0.072% of the FTSE Developed index**. **That asymmetry is the whole trade and it cuts both ways.** The passive flow is mechanical and modest — roughly $400m net — against an index that has already run to a 17-year high in anticipation.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-15

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 13 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile), velocity MIXED. **This edition withdraws the gas near-zero, which this file has run as its single most load-bearing fact for two months.** We have said that no LNG carrier has transited since 11 July, and that gas — unlike crude — has no ship-to-ship workaround and therefore no way around the Strait at all. Both halves are wrong. The Qatari carrier **Al Maruna**, loaded in early August, was in the Gulf of Oman on the morning of **8 September** bound for Port Qasim and arriving 10 September; it cleared the Strait around 7-8 September.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-13

  Delphic QuickTakes — 13 Sep 2026

  Friday's August CPI came in above consensus on the core — +0.3% m/m against 0.2% — and took implied odds of a 16 September hike to roughly 88%. Equities rallied anyway, snapping a four-session losing streak, because Brent reversed about three per cent off a ~$108 intraday high to close $104.61. That is a market telling you it thinks the energy shock, not the Fed, is the binding constraint. Two things should temper it: copper fell 4.5%, the first wobble in the one growth leg that was firm; and our own Hormuz file today withdraws a claim it has carried for weeks.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-13

  Global Market Commentary — 13 Sep 2026

  **THE CPI RAN HOT, THE MARKET RALLIED ANYWAY, AND THE BARREL EXPLAINS WHY.** Friday's August CPI delivered exactly the print we said would decide Wednesday: **core +0.3% m/m against a 0.2% consensus**, headline +0.4%, taking implied 16 September hike odds to roughly **88%**. And equities **rallied** — **S&P 500 7,656.98 (+0.86%)**, **Dow 52,573.29 (+0.98%)**, **Nasdaq Composite 26,333.04 (+0.96%)** — snapping a four-session losing streak, with **VIX down 11.2% to 15.84**. **The barrel did that, not the inflation print.** Brent closed **$104.61**, up 3.5% on Thursday but roughly **3% BELOW its ~$108 intraday high**, and it was that reversal the equity market bought. **Copper fell 4.5%.** Read the week honestly: a hot core, a near-certain hike, a 10-year at **4.97%** — and a tape that has decided the energy shock is the binding constraint, not the Fed.

• Greece News Run2026-09-13

  Greece News Run — 13 Sep 2026

  **Athens closed the week at a 17-year peak, and it got there on the day a US rate hike became a near certainty — which tells you what kind of market this now is.** The General Index finished Friday at **2,726.49 (+1.07%)** on turnover near **EUR 325m**, through the high set a week earlier, with the **banks index up 2.20% to 3,271.23** — outperforming a European bank sector that rose 1.46% and a global tape that rallied only because oil reversed off its intraday high. **Piraeus +2.81%, Alpha +2.61%, National +1.96%.** A rate-sensitive banking system leading on the day the August US core CPI printed hot and September hike odds moved to roughly 88% is a market that has decided higher-for-longer is good for its largest sector, and is willing to say so five sessions before the **18 September rebalance** and eight before the **21 September Developed Market reclassification**. **The supporting evidence is structural, not sentiment.** Greek banks are approaching **EUR 400bn in total assets** with capital buffers built out of four years of high profitability; the out-of-court debt settlement mechanism has passed **EUR 20.5bn**; Greece is borrowing at better rates than larger eurozone economies on the strength of primary surpluses; and Athens is being talked about as a hedge-fund location, with at least one manager reported in talks with the authorities. **The bill still arrives on the other side.** Diesel is approaching **EUR 2/litre**, gas is near **EUR 82/MWh**, and the winter is being described domestically as a triple trap of empty heating-oil reserves, fuel pressure and rising wholesale power costs.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-13

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 13 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING), velocity back to STALLED. This edition leads with a correction to something this file has asserted for weeks, because it is the most important thing we learned. WE HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE US POSTURE. Every recent edition has carried the line that the operative American activity in this corridor is a BLOCKADE and interdiction posture and explicitly NOT convoy escort — citing Operation Project Freedom's launch and pause on 4-5 May and a judgement that the Strait is too tight for alongside escort.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-11

  Delphic QuickTakes — 11 Sep 2026

  The ECB raised to 2.50% unanimously, told the market inflation stays well above target for an extended period, and declined to pre-commit to anything — so the market priced 88bp more tightening into September 2027. Add the hottest annual PPI of 2026 and a Houthi ground offensive that took a Red Sea port, and the US 2-year moved 17bp with the 10-year through 4.97%. But take the move apart before calling it a de-anchoring: real yields carried 10.5 of the 13.2bp, the 5y5y forward did not move, and gold fell 2.5%. This is orderly tightening, not a loss of faith.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-11

  Global Market Commentary — 11 Sep 2026

  **THE ECB CALLED ITS OWN HIKE A 'NO-BRAINER' AND THE BOND MARKET TOOK IT LITERALLY.** The ECB raised to **2.50%** unanimously and told the market **'inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period'** — a hawkish surprise. Markets now price a further **88bp of tightening** peaking in September 2027. Add a hot **August PPI (+0.4% m/m, 5.4% y/y — the highest 12-month reading of 2026)** and **Brent through $105** on the Houthi seizure of Mokha, and the curve broke: **UST 2y +17.0bp to 4.594%**, **10y +13.2bp to 4.973%**, **30y 5.378%**. Wall Street fell a **fourth straight session** (**S&P 7,591.70, -0.58%**).

• Greece News Run2026-09-11

  Greece News Run — 11 Sep 2026

  **The ECB hiked, called it a no-brainer, and Greek banks were the one part of Europe that liked it.** The General Index closed 10 September at **2,697.58 (-0.15%)** on turnover of about **EUR 394m**, but the **banks index rose 0.45% to 3,200.83** - outperforming both a European bank sector that was flat-to-lower and a global tape having its fourth straight down day. **Alpha led at +1.72%**, and **Eurobank had its outlook raised to positive** by a ratings agency in the same session. That is a rate-sensitive banking system behaving exactly as it should on the day its central bank raised to **2.50%** and told the market **inflation stays well above target for an extended period**, with officials already signalling October and **88bp of further tightening** now priced to a September 2027 peak. **The other half of the ledger is where it hurts.** Greek 10-year yields sold **9.3bp to 4.242%** in a synchronised euro-area move, and the domestic cost base is now the government's hardest file: **unleaded near EUR 2.10/litre**, **wholesale power toward EUR 200/MWh**, European gas at four-year highs, and **Brent at $108**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-11

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 11 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING), velocity DETERIORATING. This edition opens with a correction against ourselves, because the most useful thing we found today refutes something we published yesterday. WE RE-SPECIFY THE TRIGGER WE ARMED. On 10 September we put a fifth Phase-1 trigger on the board — a VLCC-exit stall persisting past roughly ten days — on the observation that no very large crude carrier had cleared Hormuz outbound since 2 September.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-10

  Delphic QuickTakes — 10 Sep 2026

  Brent settled $101.21 on 9 September, its first close above $100 since July, and Wall Street fell for a third straight session. The more useful fact is what happened at the long end: the 10-year closed at 4.841%, a level last seen before 1 November 2023, on the very day the Treasury tripled its buyback of longer-dated debt to $6bn — an operation the market called too small. When a tripled official bid is waved away as insufficient, the level is not a supply problem. Today the ECB raises to 2.50% into euro-area inflation of 3.3%; tomorrow the US August CPI decides a 16 September FOMC that already carries a ~57% chance of a hike.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-10

  Global Market Commentary — 10 Sep 2026

  **THE ENERGY SHOCK NOW HAS TWO CENTRAL BANKS IN FRONT OF IT — AND BOTH DECIDE THIS WEEK.** Brent **SETTLED $101.21 on 9 September (+3.4%)**, its first close above $100 since July, and marks **$101.09**. Wall Street fell for a **third straight session** — **S&P 500 7,636.36 (-0.48%)**, **Dow 52,380.66 (-0.77%)** — while the **UST 10y jumped 6.5bp to 4.841%**, **a level last seen before 1 November 2023** — and it did so on the day the Treasury tripled its longer-dated buyback to **$6bn**, an operation the market judged **too small**. Europe took it harder: **DAX -1.66%**, **Euro Stoxx 50 -1.58%**, and a synchronised euro-area bond selloff — **Bund +7.7bp, BTP +11.0bp, GGB +10.9bp**. **The ECB decides today** (25bp to 2.50%, ~99% priced) into euro-area August inflation of **3.3%** with **energy at +14.3%**; the **US August CPI lands tomorrow**; the **FOMC is Wednesday 16 September with a HIKE at ~57%**.

• Greece News Run2026-09-10

  Greece News Run — 10 Sep 2026

  **The index barely moved and the composition moved violently - that is the energy shock arriving inside Athens rather than on top of it.** The General Index closed 9 September at **2,701.69 (-0.18%)** on turnover of about **EUR 428m**, 40 advancers against 64 decliners. Underneath: **HELLENiQ +6.29% to EUR 17.73** and **Motor Oil +3.38% to EUR 67.20** as Brent settled **$101.21**, its first close above $100 since July; **PPC +2.75%**, **OTE +2.13%**; and the **banks index -1.14%**, in line with European banks at **-1.15%**. **Read the bank move as beta, not as a Greek story** - and read the refiner move as the war's transmission channel into the Greek accounts. **The bill for the same shock lands on the other side of the ledger today.** Greek **August HICP re-accelerated to 3.7%** from 2.7% in July, comfortably above the euro-area **3.3%**; heating oil is flagged toward **EUR 1.90/litre**, wholesale power runs near **EUR 183/MWh** and gas near **EUR 79/MWh**, with new diesel and heating-oil measures under consideration.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-10

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING), and the reason to keep reading is not the badge but what moved underneath it. THE TANKER WAR HAS BECOME A CAMPAIGN. On the night of 8 September CENTCOM destroyed FIVE Iranian crude carriers in a single action — M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1 and M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, M/T Derya near Kharg Island — and published video of the Riesco SINKING. That is the largest single day of tanker destruction of this war, and it followed the three-hull strike of 5 September by seventy-two hours.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-08

  Delphic QuickTakes — 8 Sep 2026

  US markets were shut Monday for Labor Day, so the last cash close is Friday 4 September — and the weekend did the work instead. Brent settled $97.00 on 7 Sep and marks $97.61, a six-week high and +16.8% on the month, after a sharp 5 September US-Iran exchange and a second strike on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery. That breaks the $96-100 settle we ourselves named as a tip-to-Phase-1 trigger, and today we log it fired and cut our own Hormuz throughput estimate from 14.0 to 8.6 mb/d.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-08

  Global Market Commentary — 8 Sep 2026

  **THE ENERGY SHOCK ARRIVES ON A TAPE THAT WAS SHUT.** US markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, so the last US cash close is **Friday 4 September** — and while the tape was dark, oil did the work. **Brent settled $97.00 on 7 Sep and marks $97.61**, a six-week high, **+16.8% on the month**, on a US-Iran exchange that sharpened on 5 Sep and a second strike on Saudi Aramco's **Jizan refinery (400 kb/d)** on 7 Sep. Europe held: **DAX 26,007 (-0.41%)**, **Athens 2,702.54 (+0.04%) — a 17-year closing high**. Asia sold off overnight.

• Greece News Run2026-09-08

  Greece News Run — 8 Sep 2026

  **Athens closed at a 17-year high on the eve of its own re-rating, and the whole index is now a reclassification trade.** The General Index finished 7 September at **2,702.54 (+0.04%)**, its highest close since October 2009, with the banks index at an **11-year high** and HELLENiQ through a **27-year high**. The driver is structural: **FTSE Russell and STOXX have reclassified Euronext Athens from Emerging to Developed, effective 21 September, with the rebalancing trade on the afternoon of 18 September** - the first eurozone market to reverse a 2013 demotion, with MSCI expected in 2027.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-08

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING). Two things changed on this refresh and BOTH cut against our prior read; we publish both rather than re-draw the lines. FIRST, THE TRIGGER FIRED. We wrote that a Brent daily SETTLE above ~$96-100 would tip full Phase 1. Brent SETTLED $97.00 on 7 Sep and marks $97.61 on 8 Sep — +16.8% on the month, RE-STRESS armed, a six-week high. That line broke. We log it FIRED. SECOND, WE CUT OUR OWN THROUGHPUT NUMBER. The 4 Sep edition made a 'KEY CORRECTION' putting dark-adjusted flow at ~13-16 mb/d and implied openness ~66-70%.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-04

  Delphic QuickTakes — 4 Sep 2026

  The 3 Sep tape RALLIED on a Fed VOICE, not the data. **Gov. Waller signalled he would support HOLDING** in September if disinflation continues, flipping **CME Sept-hike odds ~63% → a coin-flip (~50%)**; the 10y fell ~5bp to ~4.75% and the market ran — **S&P +1.12% to 7,752, Nasdaq 100 +1.30%, Dow +1.15%**, the semis-led move OVERRUNNING Broadcom's light Q4 guide. Both risk AND haven bid: **gold +2.4% (~$4,470)** as real yields fell, VIX ~14.5.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-04

  Global Market Commentary — 4 Sep 2026

  **A dovish-Waller rally — read it in layers.** **(1) The Fed VOICE moved the tape, not the data.** **Gov. Waller signalled he would support HOLDING** in September if disinflation continues ('give disinflation a chance'), flipping **CME Sept-hike odds ~63% → a coin-flip (~50%)**; the 10y fell ~5bp to ~4.75% and equities ran — **S&P +1.12% to 7,752, Nasdaq 100 +1.30%, Dow +1.15%**, the semis-led move OVERRAN Broadcom's light Q4 guide.

• Greece News Run2026-09-04

  Greece News Run — 4 Sep 2026

  **The read (Thursday 3 Sep, the 3 Sep close).** The Athens tape RALLIED with the world - the **General Index +1.62% to 2,691** - broad and cyclical, as a global **dovish-Waller repricing** (a Fed Governor signalled a September hold, flipping US hike odds ~63%->~50%) lifted risk. **Viohalco +6.2%, Cenergy +3.7%** led, the banks firmed +2-3% (Alpha +2.72%, NBG +2.39%), and Motor Oil +2.95% (HELLENiQ -1.52% the laggard).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-04

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING, consolidating). The vector stays RE-ESCALATING off the 31 Aug double tanker strike (the 7th hull hit since the 14 Jul blockade) and the US retaliation on 1 Sep — strikes on IRGC positions INSIDE Iran, a kinetic exchange but NOT a chokepoint-closing event.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-21

  Delphic QuickTakes — 21 Aug 2026

  Read the two sessions separately. Thursday 20 Aug the US **CASH** tape rolled over: the buyback relief faded and the long end re-broke higher — the broad market fell (**S&P 500 -0.8%, Dow -1.3% (~-700), Russell 2000 -1.4%** [CASH]), Walmart -9% on slowing US sales dragged the consumer, and the VIX closed 16.01.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-21

  Global Market Commentary — 21 Aug 2026

  **There is no US cash open yet — read the overnight precisely: US index FUTURES firmed on a memory-led bid, but the long end did not re-ease, so it is a relief bid INSIDE the higher-for-longer regime, not a yields-defeated all-clear.** **(1) Thursday's US CASH session rolled over.** The S&P fell **-0.84% (SPY 762.63)**, the Dow **-1.3% (~-700)**, the Russell 2000 **-1.4%** and Nasdaq Comp -1.0%, with breadth POOR and VIX at 16.01 — the buyback relief faded

• Greece News Run2026-08-21

  Greece News Run — 21 Aug 2026

  **The read (Friday 21 Aug, on the Thu 20 Aug close): the day's event is the FTSE Russell EM reshuffle at TONIGHT's close — the LAST EM rebalance before Greece's upgrade to DEVELOPED MARKET on 21 Sept 2026 — as the tape reclaims 2,600 and the refiners set fresh records.** The GI closed **2,599.44 (+0.23%)**, back above 2,600 and ~1% below the 17-yr high ~**2,628** (still +23.7% YTD), with the banks index steadying **+0.39% to 3,034.75** — a bounce off Wedne

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-21

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 21 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 → 1 TRANSITION (ESCALATING). The escalation HOLDS and hardens, now IN THE CORRIDOR: the first transit FATALITY of the campaign and the first SEIZURE since June both landed.

• Sunday Greek Press Digest2026-08-16

  Sunday Greek Press Digest — 16 Aug 2026

  **The re-rating is proven — and now MATURING.** The ATHEX closed the week at a 17-year high (GI 2,623.25, +0.31% on the week, YTD +23.7%), refiner-led: Motor Oil ripped +4.85% to a fresh ATH €55.10 on its confirmed MSCI add — the 'sell-the-news' did NOT materialise — and HELLENiQ set a record €14.57, both riding the Iran-Hormuz premium that is a POSITIVE for Greek refiners and tankers, the inverse of the drag elsewhere. But the developed-market flow story got re-cut (standalone FTSE a net outflow, STOXX-rescued; banks ~71% not ~90%; P/Es now a ~1% premium), so the next leg is corporate — M&A and consolidation (UniCredit at 29.8% of Alpha) and the fiscal doubleheader — not the passive bid.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-14

  Delphic QuickTakes — 14 Aug 2026

  Be precise, because our read and the market's diverge — and the QuickTakes must say ours. The market read the flat July **CPI/PPI headlines** as an all-clear on the Fed, priced the Sept-**HIKE** tail DOWN to **~35%** (2y to a new low ~4.14%) and ran risk to records — Thu 13 Aug the **S&P closed a record 7,798.99** (cleared 7,800), the Nasdaq-100 broke 30,000, the Russell 2000 also a record.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-14

  Global Market Commentary — 14 Aug 2026

  **The tape made new records — but on a rate read we FADE, so it's a chase, not an underwritten breakout.** **(1) There is NO flip to a cut — and the market's dovish read is one we fade.** Cross-checked to our 13-Aug US Macro Flash: the market read the flat July CPI/PPI **headlines** as an all-clear, priced the Sept-**HIKE** tail DOWN to ~35% (from ~50%) and ran the 2y to a new low **~4.14%**.

• Daily Greek Market & News Digest2026-08-14

  Daily Greek Market & News Digest — 14 Aug 2026

  **The read (Friday 14 Aug, on the Thu 13 Aug close): the MSCI verdict is IN — Motor Oil ADDED to the Standard index — and it SOLD THE NEWS; the ATHEX holds near its 17-year high on a thin pre-holiday tape.** The General Index closed Thu at **2,613.23 (-0.02%)** on light turnover (~€211.5m; the Fri 14 Aug pre-15-Aug-holiday session is not yet indexed).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-14

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 14 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the WAR PREMIUM BLEEDS, but on DEMAND not DE-ESCALATION, and the PHYSICAL throttle TIGHTENS even as the price falls. Brent round-tripped from its 12 Aug high (~$89.8) to ~$87.12 (WTI ~$81.37); gold eased -1.3% to ~$4,322.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-12

  Delphic QuickTakes — 12 Aug 2026

  Two forces hit the tape at once. **Last night**, after Tuesday's close, **CoreWeave** (rev +112%, backlog **$104bn -> $129bn** — ~$25bn of net-new contracted demand in under six weeks, capex raised to $35-39bn) and **Super Micro** (FY27 guide **$65-72bn vs ~$54bn** Street, gross margin **8% -> 16%**) beat and bid ~+9-10% after-hours — the strongest evidence yet that the hyperscaler-capex arc is meeting REAL contracted demand, but an INFRASTRUCTURE-layer (L1/L2) bid, not the m

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-12

  Global Market Commentary — 12 Aug 2026

  **The AI-infrastructure bid and the oil-inflation/CPI tail are COEXISTING, not one overriding the other — the market can rally on the backlog print and still respect the oil-core tail.** **(1) The AI beats are a durability signal, not froth — and they're rotating into infrastructure.** After Tuesday's close, **CoreWeave** (rev +112%, backlog **$104bn->$129bn** — ~$25bn of net-new contracted demand in under six weeks — FY26 capex raised to $35-39bn) and **Super Micro** (FY27 g

• Daily Greek Market & News Digest2026-08-12

  Daily Greek Market & News Digest — 12 Aug 2026

  **The read (Wednesday 12 Aug, on the Tue 11 Aug close): Athens firmed back near its 17-year high into TONIGHT'S MSCI verdict, with the oil surge handing the refiners a live tailwind.** The General Index closed Tue at **2,614.44 (+0.29%)**, back near Friday's high (the banking index +0.31% to ~3,055, +32.5% YTD, near 11-yr highs), and **HELLENiQ jumped +4.6%** with PPC +1.6% on the oil surge (Brent testing $90).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-12

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 12 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the ESCALATION PREMIUM RE-LOADS as fresh attacks on shipping puncture deal-optimism, and oil TESTS $90 — but the Strait is NOT freshly shut. The overnight climb is peripheral to Hormuz: Yemen’s government says Houthis killed SIX in a missile strike on a vessel in BAB AL-MANDEB (a SEPARATE chokepoint), and US CENTCOM disabled a blockade-runner — layered on collapsed Iranian/Kharg loadings and a hardline SNSC (Rezaei: ‘only our route’).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-11

  Delphic QuickTakes — 11 Aug 2026

  Monday was a quiet consolidation near Friday's record — the **S&P eased just -0.06% to 7,753.11** as the AI/speculative tail gave back (**Nvidia and AMD each -2.9%**, IREN -6.0%) and small caps softened (Russell -0.56%): the index held because money ROTATED, not because it topped.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-11

  Global Market Commentary — 11 Aug 2026

  **Monday consolidated near the record; overnight the oil-inflation tail re-armed hard, and the week is now a binary on CPI with $88 Brent as the live cross-current.** **(1) Monday was rotation, not a top.** The S&P eased just -0.06% to **7,753.11** (a whisker off Friday's record 7,757.64), but under the hood the AI/speculative complex took a breather — **Nvidia and AMD each -2.9%**, Micron -1.9%, IREN -6.0%, Bloom -4.0% — while small caps softened (Russell -0.56%); the index

• Greece News Run2026-08-11

  Greece News Run — 11 Aug 2026

  **The read (Tuesday 11 Aug, on the Mon 10 Aug close): Athens EASED off its 17-year high into tomorrow's MSCI verdict, and the oil surge hands the refiners a tailwind.** The General Index eased **-0.31% to 2,606.95** Monday, just off Friday's 17-yr high of 2,615 (banks near 11-yr highs — National at an 11-year high, ~€15bn cap; Piraeus a ~5-yr high; YTD ~+23%) — an orderly consolidation, not a franchise signal.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-11

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 11 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL MOVES BACKWARD and the WAR PREMIUM RE-BIDS HARD into CPI. The oil surge is DIPLOMATIC, not physical: on 10 Aug Trump REJECTED Iran’s reparations demand and COUNTER-demanded Iran pay the US ‘for the people they have killed and wounded with roadside bombs,’ and Tehran installed HARDLINER Mohsen Rezaei (IRGC commander 1981-97) as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council — the exact body that must sign the Oman corridor.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-10

  Delphic QuickTakes — 10 Aug 2026

  The payrolls-pivot risk-on held into the weekend — and the tell sharpened. Friday's July payrolls (**NFP -23k**, a contraction) took the Fed HIKE off the table and left the **S&P at a record 7,757.64** (the week the strongest since April).

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-10

  Global Market Commentary — 10 Aug 2026

  **The payrolls-pivot risk-on held into the weekend — but the twin bid sharpened, and the week is now a binary on CPI.** **(1) The record close held.** Friday's July payrolls (NFP **-23k**, a contraction) took the Fed HIKE off the table and ripped risk to records (**S&P 7,757.64**, the week the strongest since April); the radar, refreshed today, ratifies it — **Monetary EASED to +0.50** (the hike premium out), Growth held +0.86, Risk neutral -0.13.

• Greece News Run2026-08-10

  Greece News Run — 10 Aug 2026

  **The read (Monday 10 Aug, on the Fri 7 Aug close): Athens holds its 17-year high into a DOUBLE index catalyst — the MSCI review Wednesday and the FTSE/S&P developed-market reclassification on 21 Sept.** The General Index closed Fri at **2,615** (+0.25%, a 5th straight close above 2,600; week +1.8%, banks at 11-year highs, YTD +23%), and Monday opened FIRM (the banking index above 3,000).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-10

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STAYS UNSIGNED and a TANKER WAS STRUCK during ‘final-stage’ talks — talks close while the war continues.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-08

  Delphic QuickTakes — 8 Aug 2026

  The week turned on Friday's jobs number — and left a tell. July payrolls printed **-23,000** (an outright contraction vs a +83k consensus), with **-103k of revisions** and participation down to 61.4%; that pulled the Fed **hike** the market had feared off the table (**September hike odds 42%, from 58%**), rallied bonds (**2Y 4.19%, 10Y 4.60%**), and ripped risk to **records** — the **S&P to 7,757.64**, the Nasdaq to a record, the week the strongest since April.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-08

  Global Market Commentary — 8 Aug 2026

  **The 72-hour arc resolved into a payrolls pivot with a twist — and the twist is the twin bid.** **(1) The week's engine was Friday's payrolls.** July NFP printed **-23,000** — an outright contraction vs a +83k consensus — with **-103k of revisions** to May/June and participation down to 61.4% (the 4.1% unemployment rate fell for the wrong reason).

• Greece News Run2026-08-08

  Greece News Run — 8 Aug 2026

  **The read (Saturday 8 Aug, on the Fri 7 Aug close): Athens held its 17-year high through a strong corporate season and a whippy global week — the General Index closed Fri at 2,615 (+0.25%), a 5th straight close above 2,600.** The **week +1.7%** (banks +2.5% to 11-year highs), **YTD +23.3%**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-08

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STAYS UNSIGNED and its LEAKED TERMS turn HAWKISH — oil RE-BID even THROUGH a dovish US payrolls shock. Five days past target the Iran-Oman channel is STILL unsigned (Rubio ‘progress not finality’), and the leaked draft is TOUGHER than first priced: BAR US/Israeli vessels, a 20% cargo fine, no parliament clearance, no reopening until the US lifts its port blockade — a narrow navigation channel, not the US package.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-06

  Delphic QuickTakes — 6 Aug 2026

  The dividend gave some back. The Bessent/Trump 'Wednesday or Thursday' Iran signature **did not land** — Rubio called it 'progress but not finality,' and what is taking shape is a **narrow Iran-Oman navigation channel**, not the broad US package, with the Strait still physically shut. So the war premium **re-bid**: **Brent +2.3% to $79.80**, and **gold +2.3%**. A weak **ADP (+44k vs ~70k)** added a growth scare — the **2-year eased to 4.18%, the 10-year to 4.61%**.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-06

  Global Market Commentary — 6 Aug 2026

  **The de-escalation dividend is not a straight line — on 6 Aug it partly reversed.** **(1) The deal stalled, and the war premium re-bid.** The Bessent/Trump 'Wednesday or Thursday' signature did NOT land — Rubio called it 'progress but not finality,' and what is taking shape is a **narrow Iran-Oman navigation channel** (coordinates agreed, a joint statement 'in the final stage'), not the broad US-brokered package Washington wanted, with the Strait still physically shut.

• Greece News Run2026-08-06

  Greece News Run — 6 Aug 2026

  **The read (Thursday 6 Aug): Athens holds its 17-year high but consolidates beneath it — METLEN reported H1 TODAY a clean BEAT, the season's last big leg, while the banks take profit and the GLOBAL tape turns risk-off.** On the latest close (5 Aug) the General Index held near **2,623** (its highest since 2009), but the **banking index eased ~1.2%** — profit-taking after the record run: **National €16.17 (-1.8%)**, **Eurobank €4.48 (-1.4%)**, Piraeus €10.05 (-0.5%), Alpha €4.4

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-06

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 6 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STALLS UNSIGNED and the PRICE RE-BIDS toward the FLOW. The Wed/Thu (5-6 Aug) signature SLIPPED — Rubio ‘progress but not finality’; Iran and Oman agreed the navigable-channel COORDINATES but the joint statement is only ‘in the final stage,’ and it is a NARROW Iran-Oman arrangement, not the broad US package. With the reopening trade partly unwound, Brent RE-BID +2.3% to $79.80 and GOLD +2.3% — the war premium creeping back.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-05

  Delphic QuickTakes — 5 Aug 2026

  The de-escalation dividend is now flowing through the whole chain. On the nearing Iran deal, **Brent held its crash to $78** (5 Aug) — roughly **−10% off the ~$87 pre-deal level** — and, the confirmation we were waiting for, the **10-year finally eased to 4.60%** (−10bp) and the **2-year to 4.20%**: the oil relief is being **ratified by rates**, fading the hawkish-hike pressure.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-05

  Global Market Commentary — 5 Aug 2026

  **The de-escalation dividend has now flowed through the entire chain.** **(1) Oil crashed and, this time, rates followed.** **Brent held its crash to $78** (5 Aug) — roughly **−10% off the ~$87 pre-deal level** — and the piece that had been missing arrived: the **10-year eased to 4.60%** (−10bp) and the **2-year to 4.20%**.

• Greece News Run2026-08-05

  Greece News Run — 5 Aug 2026

  **The read (Wednesday 5 Aug): Athens HOLDS its 17-year high but ROTATES beneath it — the banks take profit after the 4-Aug surge while the H1 corporate season delivers across industrials, utilities and energy.** The General Index sits near **2,630-2,640** (its highest since 2009; the 4 Aug close was 2,628.73), flat-to-firm on the day, but the **banking index eased ~0.7%** — mild profit-taking, not a reversal: **Piraeus €10.04 (-0.6%)**, NBG €16.37 (-0.6%), Eurobank €4.54 (fla

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-05

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 5 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DE-ESCALATION deepens toward a DEAL, the PRICE racing AHEAD of the FLOW. Oil kept crashing — Brent to $78 (5 Aug, ~-10% off the ~$87 pre-deal level) — and, the confirmation, the US 10Y EASED to 4.60% (the S&P at a store record 7,736). The deal is CLOSE (Treasury/Trump aim Wed/Thu; a 60-day Oman-Iran interim — free movement, mines cleared in 30 days).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-04

  Delphic QuickTakes — 4 Aug 2026

  The trade we flagged arrived. On the **2 Aug Iran deal framework** (the US attack called off, the Strait to re-open), Monday **3 Aug repriced it hard**: **Brent crashed ~4.8% to a 3-week low ~$84** (intraday −7%), the **10-year fell off its ~4.74% cycle high**, and risk **ripped** — the **S&P +1.5% to ~7,600**, the Nasdaq +2.1%, the **Dow to a RECORD close (53,178)**, and **Amazon closed above $3 trillion** (the 2nd US company ever) on AWS.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-04

  Global Market Commentary — 4 Aug 2026

  **The week resolved its two big questions and then the weekend re-opened a third.** **(1) The AI-capex verdict finished SPLIT.** The mega-cap prints adjudicated the trillion-dollar-build debate as a **within-complex re-sort, not a top**: **Amazon +12%** (AWS re-accelerating) and Microsoft's Azure blowout were REWARDED, while **Apple -7.4%** (~-8.6% two-day; soft Services, a China miss, a light guide, no AI product) was PUNISHED — the market now discriminates on who is MONETIS

• Greece News Run2026-08-04

  Greece News Run — 4 Aug 2026

  **The read (Tuesday 4 Aug, on the 3 Aug 17-YEAR HIGH): the risk-on from the 2 Aug Iran deal framework (oil crashing, US markets to records) carried Athens to its highest close since Nov 2009 — the General Index +1.64% to 2,611.77 on 3 Aug (YTD +23%), the banking index +2.43% to an 11-year high (3,036).** The banks LED on their record H1 numbers (all four beat/raised, ~€2.5bn aggregate) and a wave of sell-side upgrades — a domestic securities house sees the biggest upside in *

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-04

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2, but the DE-ESCALATION is now PRICED. The 2 Aug deal framework (US attack called off, the Strait to re-open) did what we flagged: Monday Brent GAPPED DOWN ~4.8% to a 3-week low ~$84 (intraday −7%), the 10Y fell off its cycle high, risk rallied hard (Amazon $3trn, Dow a record).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-31

  Delphic QuickTakes — 31 Jul 2026

  The week's fear reversed. On 30 Jul the tape **REBOUNDED hard**, erasing the post-FOMC rout: the S&P **+1.66% (7,438)**, the Nasdaq **+2.78%**, the Dow +1.19% — led by **MICROSOFT +15.5%**, a blowout (Azure AI run-rate +123%, capex +70% and the market REWARDED the spend). **3 of 4 hyperscalers won** (MSFT, Amazon +9%, Nvidia +2.7%); META -8% the exception (2026 capex $115-135bn without the monetisation), Apple soft (China).

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-31

  Global Market Commentary — 31 Jul 2026

  **The geopolitical relief faded, and two forces took over: a global semis rout and a hawkish Fed repricing.** **(1) The AI/semis de-rating RESURGED — and went global.** The 'contained semis correction' broadened into a worldwide **chip rout**: SanDisk **-11%** and Nvidia lower Monday, and this morning **Nvidia ~-5%, AMD -5.2%, SK Hynix -7.5%** pre-market, dragging **Nikkei -4.26%** and **Kospi ~-8%**.

• Greece News Run2026-07-31

  Greece News Run — 31 Jul 2026

  **The read (on Thursday 30 Jul's close): the H1 BANK SEASON IS DELIVERING RECORDS ACROSS THE BOARD — and the ATHEX has printed a 17-YEAR HIGH (2,571.90, +1.25%), the banking index +1.78%.** The demand-side proof is now IN: **Eurobank** reported adj.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-31

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 31 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2. DE-ESCALATION RESUMING, with the FIRST physical thaw. No new strikes on Iran soil since ~27 Jul; the 10-day ceasefire (Qatar/Egypt/Oman) is PROPOSED and RECEIVED by Iran but NOT signed. Brent has fallen to ~$86.99 (openness ~41%). The constructive tell: the anchored fleet is beginning to MOVE — Qatar's Al Areesh LNG exited 30 Jul (first in ~3 weeks), an ADNOC carrier reappeared, US Navy escorting some tankers.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-27

  Delphic QuickTakes — 27 Jul 2026

  This morning is a **geopolitical relief rally**. Over the weekend the **US and Iran PAUSED strikes**, and **Brent has TUMBLED ~6% to ~$91** (sub-$90 intraday) as the war premium unwinds — risk-on across the board: **US futures bid (S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq-100 +1.4%)**, Europe higher (Euro STOXX 50 +0.9%), Asia positive ex-Japan, **10Y -5bp to ~4.64%**, gold +2%.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-27

  Global Market Commentary — 27 Jul 2026

  **Stabilization, not recovery — a two-speed tape: the broad risk-off steadied while the AI de-rating narrowed and deepened into SEMIS.** **(1) The broad tape STABILISED.** The S&P held **+0.05% (~7,412)** and the Dow rose **+0.46%**; Europe was GREEN across the board (**STOXX 600 +0.82%, DAX +1.36%, CAC +0.88%**) — a relief rally as the oil spike pared. The panic leg of Thursday's risk-off did not extend.

• Greece News Run2026-07-27

  Greece News Run — 27 Jul 2026

  **The weekend read (on Friday 24 Jul's close): Athens BOUNCED +1.49% to 2,492.71 — a bank-led relief rally as Brent pared off $100 and Europe turned green; the mirror of Thursday, oil still the near-term master.** The **General Index CLOSED 2,492.71 (+1.49%**, one push short of 2,500), clawing back most of Thursday's -2.02% oil-driven drop (week +1.85%).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-27

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2. The STRIKE PAUSE: a PRICE relief the PHYSICAL has not yet followed. The US and Iran PAUSED strikes over the weekend, and Brent TUMBLED ~9% to ~$88.40 — naive openness rising to ~37% (from ~11% Friday) as the war premium unwinds. BUT the physical is unchanged: ~4 mb/d (~20%), ~448 vessels ANCHORED, no owners yet resuming. So the price is FRONT-RUNNING the flow — the Two-Clock divergence FLIPS: price (~37%) now runs AHEAD of the physical (~17-25%).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-24

  Delphic QuickTakes — 24 Jul 2026

  The chop resolved **DOWN** into a stagflation-tinged risk-off. Mega-cap leadership **CRACKED on earnings** — **Google -6.9%, Tesla -14.5%** — dragging the **S&P -1.2% (~7,430)**, the AI complex broadly lower (Micron +3.2% the lone DRAM exception).

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-24

  Global Market Commentary — 24 Jul 2026

  **The chop resolved DOWN — a stagflation-tinged risk-off, on mega-cap earnings cracks and oil through $100.** **(1) Equities — the de-rating resumed.** The S&P fell **-1.23% (~7,430)**, and this time the leadership CRACKED on earnings: **Google -6.89%** and **Tesla -14.52%** on soft results dragged the tape, with the AI complex broadly lower (**Nvidia -1.6%, AMD -2.3%, TSMC -1.3%**) — **Micron +3.2%** the lone exception, riding the DRAM upcycle.

• Greece News Run2026-07-24

  Greece News Run — 24 Jul 2026

  **The Friday read (on Thursday 23 Jul's close): the bank-led rally FULLY REVERSED — Athens -2.02% to 2,456 — as Brent broke $100 and the oil shock dragged Europe down; the decoupling is over, oil is the master.** The **General Index CLOSED 2,456.16 (-2.02%**, intraday low 2,433), back below 2,500 after the 21-22 Jul bank-led rally to 2,506.79.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-24

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 24 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Hormuz), but a SECOND CHOKEPOINT opens. The siege's TENTH day; Brent BREAKS $100 ($100.35), naive implied openness ~2%. But the break is NOT a Hormuz closure — it is the RED SEA: Houthis hit the Saudi tanker Encelia, Saudi PAUSED Red Sea shipments, the Petroline bypass under fire. The SIEGE WIDENED to two chokepoints.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-23

  Delphic QuickTakes — 23 Jul 2026

  Equities went nowhere in a two-sided **chop**: the AI complex split (**Nvidia +2.3%, AMD +1.5%** led, but **Micron -1.2%, Google -1.2%, Bloom -3.6%** stayed soft), the **S&P ~flat** — floor-vs-dead-cat still unresolved. The tape's driver shifted to **OIL**: Brent BROKE **$95 ($95.98)**, up ~8% in two days, on a genuine escalation — a **NEW Red Sea / Houthi front** hitting Saudi's bypass, the **US-Iran talks collapsing**, and a Trump infrastructure threat.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-23

  Global Market Commentary — 23 Jul 2026

  **Equities went nowhere in a two-sided chop; the day's real action was in OIL.** **(1) Equities — an indecisive, split tape.** The AI complex divided cleanly: **Nvidia +2.3%, AMD +1.5%** on the semis/scarcity side, but **Micron -1.2%, Google -1.2%** and the speculative tail soft (**Bloom -3.6%, Galaxy -2.4%**, IREN flat), with the **S&P ~flat (-0.12%)** and Apple -0.6%. No direction, low conviction — a market digesting, waiting on the next macro catalyst.

• Greece News Run2026-07-23

  Greece News Run — 23 Jul 2026

  **The Thursday read (on the 21-22 Jul close): Athens BREAKS OUT — a big BANK-LED rally decouples from the US chop — as the government's threads keep cutting ND's way and Aktor prices its €650m SCI.** The **General Index rallied to 2,506.79** — +2.08% on 21 Jul (a **bank-led breakout**) then a third straight gain (+0.24%) on 22 Jul, back above 2,500 and near the ~2,560 17-yr high (YTD +18%).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-23

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 23 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2, but SEVERE, at the EDGE of Phase 1. The siege's NINTH day; Brent BREAKS $95 ($95.98) and the PHYSICAL now CONFIRMS it. Implied openness COLLAPSED to ~15% (from ~37% on 21 Jul), and the flow AGREES: throughput ~5 mb/d (~20-25% of norm), transits -90% YoY, tanker dark-share ~70%. Price (~15%) and physical (~20%) CONVERGE on a SEVERE, REAL supply disruption — NOT a fear premium.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-21

  Delphic QuickTakes — 21 Jul 2026

  Friday's multi-front assault **reversed hard**. The complex that cratered ripped, led by the **most-beaten, most-shorted names** — **IREN +20.3%, Galaxy +9.9%**, the semis bouncing (**Micron +4.4%, AMD +3.1%**), and Friday's cracked leader **Google +1.8%** — while Friday's defensive winners gave it back (**Apple -2.6%, Tesla -2.5%**). Once again the **S&P was ~flat (+0.1%, ~7,515)**, masking a violent factor reversal — the mirror of Friday.

• Greece News Run2026-07-21

  Greece News Run — 21 Jul 2026

  **The Tuesday read (on Monday 20 Jul's close): the tape BASES — a first up-day breaks the five-session slide — while the government's week keeps cutting ND's way.** The **General Index closed 2,449.91, +0.11%** Monday (turnover €261m) — a modest gain, but the FIRST up-session after five down, off the ~2,560 17-yr high (YTD +15.4%).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-21

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 21 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The siege grinds into a SEVENTH day and the OIL HOLDS its gap: Brent CONSOLIDATED at $88.53 (CO1, from Mon's $88.10, +$0.4 — the weekend gap STICKS) in STEEP backwardation (CO1-CO12 +$11.91, ~15% front/12m) — acute near-term scarcity the market is NOT fading. Yet still a throttled corridor, not a closure: the model reads implied openness ~37% (SPOT) but ~92% at the 12m FORWARD (CO12 $76.62) — INTENSE-but-TEMPORARY.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-20

  Global Market Commentary — 20 Jul 2026

  **Friday's multi-front assault reversed hard, and the cross-asset tape is the mirror image of the session before.** **(1) Equities — the de-rating snaps back, led by the most-beaten names.** The complex that cratered Friday RIPPED: the speculative tail led it (**IREN +20.3%, Galaxy +9.9%**), the semis bounced (**Micron +4.4%, AMD +3.1%, TSMC +1.3%, Nvidia +0.6%**), and Friday's cracked mega-cap leader **Google bounced +1.8%**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-20

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 20 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The siege grinds into a SIXTH day and the OIL is RE-BIDDING: Brent GAPPED to $88.10 (CO1, from Fri's $84.5 (17 Jul)) in STEEP backwardation (CO1-CO12 +$11.4, ~13% front/12m) — pricing an ACUTE near-term scarcity. Yet still a throttled corridor, not a closure: the oil-decomposition model reads implied openness ~38% (SPOT) but ~92% at the 12m FORWARD (CO12 $76.69) — an INTENSE-but-TEMPORARY disruption.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-19

  Delphic QuickTakes — 19 Jul 2026

  The AI/momentum de-rating **deepened and broadened**. Having taken out the speculative tail (Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9%) and the semis (Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%; SOX -10.8%, ~$1.3trn erased), it is now cracking a **mega-cap leader — Google -4.4%**. Yet it is still a **factor unwind, not a broad crash**: the S&P only -0.54% (~7,507), **Apple resilient (+1.76%)**, energy rotating up.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-19

  Global Market Commentary — 19 Jul 2026

  **The AI/momentum de-rating is now a multi-front assault, and the cross-asset tape has to be read on four axes at once.** **(1) Equities — a factor unwind, but the mask is slipping.** The S&P is only **-0.54% (~7,507)**, yet underneath the AI complex is in open de-rating: **Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%, Nvidia -2.4%, TSMC -2.3%** (SOX -10.8%, ~**$1.3trn** of semi cap erased), the speculative AI-adjacents cratering (**Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9.0%, Galaxy -9.2%**).

• Greece News Run2026-07-19

  Greece News Run — 19 Jul 2026

  **The Sunday read (weekend press run): the government's week — both of the week's big developments cut its way — as the tape consolidates (-2.62% on the week to 2,447) with the re-rating INTACT.** The campaign moved past the handout war to the openly pre-negotiated **'day-after' government**: the EPPO's much-hyped **OPEKEPE farm-subsidy probe resolved BOUNDED** (four ND-MP misdemeanours + seven archivings, not the systemic indictment the opposition pre-sold — flipping it to '

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-17

  Delphic QuickTakes — 17 Jul 2026

  The AI/momentum de-rating **deepened and broadened**. Having taken out the speculative tail (Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9%) and the semis (Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%; SOX -10.8%, ~$1.3trn erased), it is now cracking a **mega-cap leader — Google -4.4%**. Yet it is still a **factor unwind, not a broad crash**: the S&P only -0.54% (~7,507), **Apple resilient (+1.76%)**, energy rotating up.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-17

  Global Market Commentary — 17 Jul 2026

  **The AI/momentum de-rating is now a multi-front assault, and the cross-asset tape has to be read on four axes at once.** **(1) Equities — a factor unwind, but the mask is slipping.** The S&P is only **-0.54% (~7,507)**, yet underneath the AI complex is in open de-rating: **Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%, Nvidia -2.4%, TSMC -2.3%** (SOX -10.8%, ~**$1.3trn** of semi cap erased), the speculative AI-adjacents cratering (**Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9.0%, Galaxy -9.2%**).

• Greece News Run2026-07-17

  Greece News Run — 17 Jul 2026

  **Friday: a soft, risk-off Athens tape — the domestic supply overhang meeting the GLOBAL AI/momentum drawdown — but the re-rating thesis was VALIDATED, not dented, by a Goldman upgrade and a Metlen surge.** The bourse was broadly heavy: **ELHA -4.7% (€4.43), GEK Terna -3.1% (€44.40), HELLENiQ -2.0% (€12.32), Cenergy -1.8%, Piraeus -1.6% (€9.10), NBG -1.2% (€14.72), Alpha -1.0% (€3.958), PPC -0.9%, Motor Oil -0.6% (€48.58), Eurobank -0.5% (€4.19), Aegean -0.3%**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-17

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 17 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The siege INTENSIFIES but still HOLDS. US strikes ran a THIRD day, the blockade is reinstated, and Iran hit TWO supertankers + struck US assets in Kuwait AND Bahrain; visible AIS-on transits down to ~7/day as ships run dark. Yet it is a throttled corridor, not a closure: Trump ABANDONED the 20% toll, Kharg is spared, and Brent $84.5 (not the $100-130 a shut Strait implies).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-16

  Delphic QuickTakes — 16 Jul 2026

  The blockade fired — CENTCOM's siege of Iran's ports went live and bit (a vessel disabled off Bandar Abbas; the US struck Abadan/Mahshahr) — realising the **SIEGE we forecast for three months**, now modal at 41. But the target set was bounded: **Trump DROPPED the toll**, Iran's reply was **intercepted**, the US **SPARED Kharg**, GL X survives. A **MANAGED siege, not a closure**.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-16

  Global Market Commentary — 16 Jul 2026

  **A BIFURCATED tape — not the relief rally the toll-drop headline implied.** Wednesday's close was **rotational, with a wide dispersion masked by a modest index**: **mega-cap tech LED** (**Apple +4.01%, Google +3.60%**) and **JPMorgan BEAT (+1.17%)** to firm the financials — but **memory/semis were HAMMERED** (**Micron -8.02%, AMD -3.46%**), so the **S&P only edged +0.40% to ~7,548** (SPY-derived), the mega-cap leadership papering over the semis wreck.

• Greece News Run2026-07-16

  Greece News Run — 16 Jul 2026

  **Wednesday 15 July was a Greece-specific bank-led pullback — a supply-overhang consolidation, NOT a geopolitics risk-off.** The **General Index closed -0.89% at 2,485.75** (back below 2,500), the **banking index -2.25%** the worst sector: **Eurobank -3.66% (€4.21), NBG -2.55% (€14.90), Alpha -2.01% (€3.997), Piraeus -1.43% (€9.246)**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-16

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 16 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The blockade FIRED, but it is a MANAGED siege, not a closure. CENTCOM's blockade of Iran's ports is in force and biting (a vessel disabled off Bandar Abbas; the US struck Abadan/Mahshahr) — but Trump DROPPED the toll, Iran's Kuwait reply was INTERCEPTED, the US SPARED Kharg, and GL X survives.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-14

  Delphic QuickTakes — 14 Jul 2026

  The escalation we flagged hardened, and the record broke. Over Monday Trump declared the US **'the Guardian of the Hormuz Strait'** and **PROPOSED a 20% toll on all cargo** (announced, NOT imposed — whether/how it is implemented is unknown), and CENTCOM announced a **blockade of Iranian ports** (to resume 14 Jul 4 p.m. ET); Iran struck **two UAE tankers** (Mombasa + Al Bahiyah, the first hull fatality).

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-14

  Global Market Commentary — 14 Jul 2026

  Markets **BROKE THE RECORD**. Monday's Iran/Hormuz escalation took the S&P off Friday's all-time high to **7,515.34 (-0.79%)**, the pain concentrated in tech/AI (**Nasdaq -1.55%**) while energy cushioned the Dow (-0.26%). The trigger was **Trump's Monday move — a PROPOSED 20% toll on all Hormuz cargo ('Guardian of the Strait'; announced, not imposed) plus an announced resumption of the blockade of Iranian ports**, on top of an Iranian strike on two UAE tankers.

• Greece News Run2026-07-14

  Greece News Run — 14 Jul 2026

  **The record held Monday — but Tuesday is a RISK-OFF sell-off, a fresh round of geopolitical liquidations with the banks the epicentre.** Athens closed **Monday 13 Jul at 2,512.07 (-0.05%)**, defending the 2,500 line (it never broke it; YTD +18.5%) — but on **Tuesday the early bid FADED**: by ~11:00 the **General Index was ~-1.2% at ~2,480, BELOW 2,500**, on a fresh round of geopolitical selling as Trump's **PROPOSED 20% Hormuz toll** (and CENTCOM's announced blockade; neithe

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-14

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 14 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). Phase-1 triggers ARMING but UNFIRED — we refuse to over-call closure. The policy track escalated hard (a PROPOSED 20% Hormuz toll, an announced blockade of Iranian ports, two struck UAE tankers), but the PHYSICAL evidence does not support active closure: CENTCOM says the Strait is OPEN, ~8 mb/d still transited (US DOE + Kpler, ~40-55% of normal, NOT ~20%), no terminal is struck (Kharg intact), mining is ARMED not FIRED (a recycl

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-13

  Delphic QuickTakes — 13 Jul 2026

  The pause we flagged as fragile **collapsed**. Over the weekend the IRGC struck the containership **GFS Galaxy** off Oman (11 Jul), the US ran a **third strike round** (~140 targets incl. Qeshm, 12 Jul), and — the defining fact — the IRGC Navy **FORMALLY DECLARED the Strait 'closed until further notice'**, the first legal closure claim of the cycle. Our SoH Monitor **DOWNGRADES to Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire, collapsed)**.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-13

  Global Market Commentary — 13 Jul 2026

  Markets opened **RISK-OFF this Monday** on an Iran/Hormuz **FLARE-UP — then SHOOK IT OFF and REBOUNDED**. The 10-11 Jul pause **COLLAPSED**: the IRGC struck the containership **GFS Galaxy** (11 Jul), the US ran a **third strike round** (~140 targets, Qeshm; 12 Jul), and the IRGC Navy **FORMALLY DECLARED the Strait 'closed'** — so our SoH monitor **DOWNGRADES to Phase 2** and **oil gapped +4%** (Brent ~$79).

• Greece News Run2026-07-13

  Greece News Run — 13 Jul 2026

  **A record Friday into a risk-off Monday that got bought — the structural bid intact, the oil flare a two-sided shock the tape shook off.** Athens closed **Friday 10 Jul at a record 2,513.22 (+0.84%)**, the banking index +1.23%, and **opened Monday RISK-OFF** as the Iran/Hormuz pause **collapsed** (Iran formally declared the Strait 'closed', the US ran a third strike round) — our SoH monitor **DOWNGRADES to Phase 2** and **Brent gapped +4%** to ~$79.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-13

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 13 Jul 2026

  DOWNGRADE — Phase 3 to Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire, collapsed). The 10-11 Jul pause broke: the IRGC struck the containership GFS Galaxy off Oman (11 Jul), the US ran a third strike round (12 Jul; ~140 targets, Qeshm), and the IRGC Navy FORMALLY declared the Strait 'closed until further notice' — the first legal closure claim of the cycle. But Phase 2, not Phase 1: CENTCOM denies the closure, the Strait is physically open, no oil-export terminal is struck (Kharg intact), no mining, and Brent is only ~$79 — the market is not pricing closure. Intraday, the market shook off the headlines as de-escalation signals re-emerged (Qatar/Pakistan mediating, technical talks continuing). The tip to Phase 1 (a Kharg/terminal hit, mining, a blockade, or Brent >$85) is unfired.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-10

  Delphic QuickTakes — 10 Jul 2026

  The bounce vindicated the call. After the hawkish June FOMC minutes lifted yields, the oil-driven jump reversed: the chip complex LED a rebound (SOXX +6% after the -12.9% rout; Micron +8%, AMD +7%) that carried the S&P +0.81% to 7,543.64, 10Y yields eased -2bp to ~4.54%, and oil fell (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3) as the Iran premium bled. We keep the hawkish minutes in view — a 9-8 split, Sept-hike odds ~69% — because a hot June CPI (14 Jul) is the one thing that could still bite. SoH holds Phase 3, tilting to de-escalation; SK Hynix's record ~$29bn ADR made the AI-memory demand signal good; Athens rebounded +0.18%.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-10

  Global Market Commentary — 10 Jul 2026

  The bounce vindicated the call. We refused to call the rate-relief bid refuted, and it re-validated: the chip complex LED a rebound (SOXX +6% after the -12.9% rout; Micron +8%, AMD +7%) that carried the S&P +0.81% to 7,543.64, yields EASED (10Y -2bp to ~4.54%) and oil FELL (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3) as the Iran premium bled. We keep the hawkish June FOMC minutes in view — a 9-8 split, Warsh's 'prices still too high,' Sept-hike odds up to ~69% — because a hot June CPI (14 Jul) is the one thing that could still harden the read. SoH holds Phase 3, tilting to de-escalation; SK Hynix's record ~$29bn ADR made the AI-memory demand signal good.

• Greece News Run2026-07-10

  Greece News Run — 10 Jul 2026

  The dip got bought. Athens rebounded +0.18% to 2,492.20 on 9 Jul (Large-Cap +0.26%, ~€261m turnover), reclaiming ground after the 8 Jul -2.14% sell-off as a global risk-on bounce lifted Europe. Energy led on a Pantelakis upgrade (HELLENiQ up, Motor Oil top pick); GEK Terna's €659.3m raise completed (32% over target) and Aktor signed a 20-yr US-LNG deal into Albania. Greek banks +24.7% YTD into the 29-31 Jul H1 run; the Iran premium is bleeding (Brent ~$76). Politics: MRB (9 Jul) has ND 29.0, ELAS 17.6, PASOK 11.1 — an 11.4-pt ND lead, Mitsotakis the clear top-PM (25.1%), ND win-probability 46.1%.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-10

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Jul 2026

  Phase 3 (partial reopening) HELD — now tilting to de-escalation. The US-Iran exchange continued past the 9 Jul Mashhad burial (a third US strike day; a 10 Jul strike near Ahvaz), so it is not a clean off-ramp — but the market is fading the premium, not building it: oil actually FELL (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3) despite the third strike day, no oil-export terminal has been struck (Kharg unhit), and there is no formal closure. Crucially the Doha channel is reactivating (Axios: 'extensive diplomatic efforts'; US envoys met Qatar's PM). The Strait is open — contested, thinner at ~12 visible transits/day plus a dark flow. The tell is the tape: oil bleeding the war premium. Downgrade to Phase 2 fires only on a terminal strike, a formal closure, or a Brent break through $85 — none in evidence, with oil falling.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-09

  Delphic QuickTakes — 9 Jul 2026

  The minutes came hawkish, the ceasefire 'ended' — and the tape held its nerve. The June FOMC minutes (Warsh's first) came hawkish, but the rate-relief bid was TESTED, not refuted: the 10Y +9bp jump was an oil-driven reaction now easing, and one oily day of rates does not break a regime — June CPI (14 Jul) is the real arbiter. Iran called the ceasefire 'over' but it is contained (Brent ~$80, gold fell); the SoH monitor holds Phase 3. The chip rout deepened (SOXX -12.9%) yet the index absorbed it on rotation, and SK Hynix's record ADR priced >7x oversubscribed — a loud AI-memory demand signal, with chips well bid this morning. Athens took the risk-off, -2.14%.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-09

  Global Market Commentary — 9 Jul 2026

  The arbiter leaned hawkish, but the jury is out. The June FOMC minutes (Warsh's first) came hawkish, and the rate-relief bid was TESTED — not refuted: the 10Y +9bp jump to ~4.57% was largely an oil-driven reaction, already fading as crude eases again today, and one oily day of rates is not a regime break. Iran declared the ceasefire 'over' but it is contained (Brent ~$80, gold fell) — our SoH monitor holds Phase 3. The chip rout deepened (SOXX -12.9%) yet the index absorbed it on rotation (Nasdaq +0.20%), and SK Hynix's record ADR priced >7x oversubscribed — an AI-memory demand signal. Athens took the risk-off, -2.14%. June CPI (14 Jul) is the real arbiter.

• Greece News Run2026-07-09

  Greece News Run — 9 Jul 2026

  A global risk-off dented the tape, not the thesis. Athens sold off -2.14% to 2,487.60 on 8 Jul (intraday below 2,470, -3.33%) in a broad European risk-off — the hawkish June FOMC minutes, Iran's ceasefire called 'over,' and a deepening US chip rout — with banks leading (banking index off >2.5% intraday, Alpha off >3%), breadth ~98:20 and ~€240m turnover. A pullback off 17-year highs, not a de-rating: Fitch's 1 Jul upgrade (Eurobank + NBG to BBB, Piraeus positive) and ~€2.83bn of payouts are intact into the 29-31 Jul H1 results, and Brent ~$80 is a HELLENiQ/Motor Oil refining tailwind. Politics: Interview (7 Jul) has ND 30.1, ELAS 17.4, PASOK 12.3 — the base case an ND-led government.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-09

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 9 Jul 2026

  Phase 3 (partial reopening) HELD — fragile / on-watch, not downgraded. The 8-9 Jul altercations are noisy but contained: Trump called the ceasefire 'over', the US ran a second strike round and Iran hit the Gulf a second night (Kuwait intercepted 2 ballistic missiles + 13 drones) — tit-for-tat amplified by the mourning week for the late Ayatollah Khamenei (burial Mashhad, 9 Jul). This is NOT an all-out resumption of the war. Is the Strait open? Yes — contested and softer (visible transits ~15-18/day plus a dark flow, no terminal struck, no formal closure). The tell that it is contained is the tape: oil is reasonably well-behaved (Brent ~$80, no supply-loss spike) and gold FELL to ~$4,030. We hold Phase 3 for another day or so; Phase 2 fires only if the altercations persist past the mourning week without an off-ramp, a terminal is struck, or a formal closure is declared.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-08

  Delphic QuickTakes — 8 Jul 2026

  A US-Iran exchange, a chip rout, and the minutes. Overnight the Hormuz tanker strike became a military exchange — US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets, Iran hitting Gulf bases — spiking Brent +6% to ~$78.8, while a second-day semiconductor rout dragged the Nasdaq -1.16% and yields rose the wrong way. The rate-relief bid is tested; the SoH monitor downgraded to Phase 3 (the Strait open but moving only ~30-35% of normal). Athens is the calm counterweight on Fitch's upgrades. The June FOMC minutes are the arbiter.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-08

  Global Market Commentary — 8 Jul 2026

  A stagflation-tinged tape into the June FOMC minutes. An overnight US-Iran kinetic exchange (US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets after the Hormuz tanker attacks; Iran hits Gulf bases) spiked Brent +6% to ~$78.8 and lifted yields, colliding with a second-day chip rout (Micron -4.7%) that dragged the Nasdaq -1.16%. The rate-relief bid is now tested, not refuted; the minutes (Warsh's first) are the arbiter. Athens is the calm counterweight, near its 2,560 record on Fitch's investment-grade upgrades.

• Greece News Run2026-07-08

  Greece News Run — 8 Jul 2026

  The record economy is now ratings-validated. Fitch upgraded Eurobank and National Bank to BBB and moved Piraeus to a positive outlook; the systemics are solidly investment-grade into the 29-31 Jul H1 results, with the sector paying ~€2.83bn from 2025 profits. Infra/energy compounds (EU cleared the DEI-Metlen storage JV; the VOAK Crete structure locked), and the Hormuz oil spike is a refining tailwind for HELLENiQ/Motor Oil. Politics: Interview (7 Jul) has ND 30.1, ELAS 17.4, PASOK 12.3, ~50% expecting early elections — the base case an ND-led government.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-08

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Jul 2026

  Downgrade — Phase 4 to Phase 3 (partial reopening) on a two-way US-Iran kinetic exchange (US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets; Iran hits Gulf bases). Is the Strait closed? No — it is open, but running only ~30-35% of normal and thinning: our view for today is visible transits ~15-25/day (down ~40-55%), dark share rising to ~58%, throughput ~4.5 mb/d, with at least four tankers turned back and the threat level 'severe'. Brent +6% to $78.78; the market prices ~70% open while the Strait physically moves ~one-third. A repeat strike, a boarding, a fee imposed, or a Brent +8% break tips it to Phase 2.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-07

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 7 Jul 2026

  Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on a quieter 7 Jul consolidation read — no fresh IRGC diversion or toll escalation on 6-7 Jul, but the IAEA line HARDENS: Gharibabadi extends Iran's access ban to all 20 declared nuclear sites (no inspections before a final deal + full sanctions relief; 'continuity of knowledge' on the uranium stockpile now broken). Diplomacy sits in the Khamenei-funeral hiatus (3-9 Jul); Doha regroups after 9 Jul, Vance calling talks 'going well'. Counts recover (36 transits on 5 Jul, ~35/day) and the dark sweep holds ~55% all-traffic; we hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d tracker over the official ~7 mb/d. Brent ~flat at $72.05 (WTI ~$69.1) on the glut + OPEC+ +188 kb/d; gold eases to ~$4,148 as the geopolitical-hedge bid softens — ~85% implied openness, ~$5/bbl residual. Gates intact and the kinetic stand-down holds, but the durability underwriting moved backward this week.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-06

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 6 Jul 2026

  Brent implies the Strait of Hormuz is ~85% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS, but the Mon 6 Jul reopen carries two fresh negatives that tighten the durability cap: Iran's toll dispute hardens (its ambassador to China says Iran 'will definitely charge service fees' for Strait transit, reframed as security/environmental fees with 'special treatment' for friendly nations), and IRGC VHF warnings plus patrol craft pushed ~6 vessels to divert or reverse in the US-backed southern corridor on both 4 and 5 Jul. Diplomacy is paused for Khamenei's 4-9 Jul state funeral. Brent firms to $72.10, gold ~$4,190; the dark sweep holds a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm.

• Greece News Run2026-07-05

  Greece News Run — 5 Jul 2026

  A weekend political refresh, read with our own view — not the papers'. Markets carry Friday's record (General Index +1.27% to 2,537, a 17-year high); the fuller Metron wave has ND ~30.4 (~120 seats), ELAS 17.1, PASOK 11.4 and SYRIZA collapsed to 1.4%. We reject the opposition's 'no polling dividend / isolated ND' line as its wish-cum-fear: sustained economic success is a latent, compounding ND asset (To Vima's own table has Mitsotakis leading most-suitable-PM 29 vs Tsipras 15), with cost-of-living the near-term cap and the autumn TIF the conversion lever. A Thessaloniki terror attack resets the agenda to security — a frame that favours ND and the right.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-04

  Delphic QuickTakes — 4 Jul 2026

  The Independence Day synthesis. US cash was shut, but the 3 Jul futures firmed — S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq 100 +1.17% (tech bounced), gold to a fresh $4,187. The cash that traded confirmed it: Europe to fresh highs, Athens to another record (2,537) led by Aktor/OTE/Avax at 5-year highs. The weekend's live variable is in Tehran, where the state funeral for the assassinated Supreme Leader (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha Hormuz talks.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-04

  Global Market Commentary — 4 Jul 2026

  A holiday tape with a signal. US cash was shut for Independence Day, but the futures that traded 3 Jul firmed — S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq 100 +1.17% (the semis/tech crack bounced), gold to a fresh $4,187, Brent $72.13. Europe (fresh highs) and Athens (another record, 2,537, +1.27%, led by Aktor/OTE/Avax at 5-year highs) confirmed it. The front end held the September-hike-priced-out level. The weekend wildcard: Iran's Khamenei state funeral (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha Hormuz talks.

• Greece News Run2026-07-04

  Greece News Run — 4 Jul 2026

  Athens made it four up-sessions and a fresh record — 2,537 (+1.27%), the highest since 2009 — while Wall Street sat out the July-4 holiday and Iran buried its Supreme Leader. Europe firmed alongside; the soft US jobs print keeps the Fed-hike tail off, capping the GGB back-up (~3.61%) and helping the banks into H1 results. The weekend risk is geopolitical: Khamenei's state funeral (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha Hormuz talks.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-04

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Jul 2026

  Brent implies the Strait of Hormuz is 87% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 4 Jul is a holiday read (US cash shut for Independence Day). The Doha round concluded with 'positive progress' on Hormuz maritime traffic and frozen funds, but is now paused for the multi-day state funeral of the assassinated Supreme Leader Khamenei (4-9 Jul); Iran issued a fresh Strait vessel-routing warning and the toll dispute stays unresolved. Brent parked low-$70s ($71.52), gold ~$4,139; the dark sweep holds a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-03

  Delphic QuickTakes — 3 Jul 2026

  The morning-after cross-desk synthesis. June payrolls came soft (+57k vs ~115k, -74k revisions) and the melt-up BOUGHT it: the 2Y fell, a September hike came off the table, and the Dow and S&P closed at records while gold ripped to $4,139. The Delphic Regime Radar's resilient tightening inflects into a rate-relief bid — with one crack: semis -4.5% a second day. Athens broke 2,500 to a 17-year high; a fresh Metron poll lands.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-03

  Global Market Commentary — 3 Jul 2026

  The jobs test breaks soft — and the tape takes it as relief. June payrolls printed just +57k (vs ~115k expected) with April/May revised down a combined 74k; because the miss quiets the Fed-hike debate, the 2Y fell to 4.137%, the Dow and S&P closed at records and gold surged +2.2% to $4,139. The one crack: semiconductors fell a second day (-4.5%), dragging the Nasdaq 100 -1.6%. The regime inflects from resilient tightening to a rate-relief bid.

• Greece News Run2026-07-03

  Greece News Run — 3 Jul 2026

  Athens ran through 2,500 to a fresh 17-year high (General Index +0.97% to 2,505.37; banking index +0.78% to 2,824.4), a third straight up-session that shrugged off the global semis wobble. Then the swing factor landed dovish: US June payrolls printed just +57k (vs ~115k), pulling the Fed-hike tail off and handing Greek duration a tailwind (GGB ~3.59%). GEK TERNA signed the VOAK (Crete) concession stake transfer.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-03

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 3 Jul 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 87% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 3 Jul is a quiet, price-led follow-through: the Doha technical track carries (working groups on mine-clearance; still no high-level meeting), the IAEA dispute unresolved. Brent steadies at $71.52 (+0.9%) with the glut still capping the tape; gold extends its surge to ~$4,139. The dark sweep holds a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm — the freshest granular print (1 Jul) just 4 fully AIS-off of 43 transits (~9%), with Kpler flagging >20M bbl waiting to sail.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-02

  Global Market Commentary — 2 Jul 2026

  The melt-up pauses into the jobs test — oil rolls over, gold surges. The S&P eased -0.21% off its record and the Nasdaq gave back -1.5% as the quarter-end chip leaders unwound; the tape de-risked ahead of June payrolls. Brent dropped -3% to $70.92 on the glut, gold surged +1.8% to ~$4,049, the 10Y held firm at ~4.48%. ADP already printed soft (98k).

• Greece News Run2026-07-02

  Greece News Run — 2 Jul 2026

  Athens recovered: the General Index climbed back toward 2,500, and GEK TERNA's surprise €659.3m raise was absorbed without dragging the tape. The global record melt-up paused with US yields still firm (10Y ~4.48%) into today's June jobs print; Brent dropped to $70.92 (-3%) as the oil glut reasserted — a disinflationary tailwind for Greek importers.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-02

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 2 Jul 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 88% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — and 2 Jul carries a modest constructive tilt on process: indirect/technical US-Iran talks are underway in Doha (working groups formed, mine-clearance first), though no high-level meetings yet. Brent drops to $70.92 as the glut reasserts; the dark sweep still frames a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-01

  Global Market Commentary — 1 Jul 2026

  A quarter-end melt-up: records into the H1 mark, but yields rose with it. The S&P closed +1.2% at a record 7,499, the Nasdaq 100 +2.37%, and the Dow logged a second straight record on a chip-led bid — sealing the best quarter since 2020. The tell was underneath: yields rose with the rally (10Y +9bp to 4.46%), both discounting the same stronger-growth outlook. June jobs (Thu) is the test.

• Greece News Run2026-07-01

  Greece News Run — 1 Jul 2026

  Athens lagged the global quarter-end melt-up: the General Index eased into the H1 close on bank pressure, but still booked a ~16% first half. GEK TERNA cleared a surprise €659.3m accelerated bookbuild overnight — the latest in a €5.5bn+ six-week wave of Greek equity issuance funding a domestic capex supercycle. US yields rose with Wall Street's records — a hawkish undertone Greek duration will feel.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-01

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 1 Jul 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 82% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — but 1 Jul is a diplomacy stall: Iran says the technical group is not meeting in Doha this week, and hardliners now demand nuclear deterrence as a precondition on top of Araghchi's 30-day 'total oversight'. Brent bounces to $73.13 on the stall; the gate re-based onto the ~55% all-traffic dark share now fails on both legs (barrels and opacity).

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-30

  Global Market Commentary — 30 Jun 2026

  The bounce arrived: AI relief + a restructuring bid reclaimed the 50-DMA into the H1 mark. After a five-session Nasdaq slide, mega-cap AI caught a broad relief bid (Nasdaq 100 +1.57%), carrying the S&P +0.76% to 7,410, back above its ~7,363 50-DMA — but partly on a ~$165bn quarter-end rebalance. Comcast +23% on an NBCU/Sky spin-off seeded a value-unlock trade; the reclaim is real but not yet confirmed.

• Greece News Run2026-06-30

  Greece News Run — 30 Jun 2026

  Athens rebounded with the global relief bounce, banks leading the bid off four down sessions as the index pushed back toward 2,470 into today's H1 close — but ADMIE took profit, falling 3.7% after its record run. NBG +2.6%, Piraeus +2.1%, Motor Oil +3.3%; the five-day Nasdaq slide snapped on a mega-cap AI relief rally. The rotation paused, not reversed, into quarter-end.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-30

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 30 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 83% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — and 30 Jun is the day diplomacy and the terms harden together: US-Iran technical talks convene in Doha, but Iran's FM Araghchi asserts Tehran's 'total oversight' of the Strait for 30 days and warns unilateral arrangements will delay reopening. Brent $72.63 (lowest since late-Feb); the dark sweep confirms a 50-80% shadow norm.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-29

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 29 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 78% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — but the reverser vector is live again: Trump alleges a ceasefire violation (drones over the Strait), a cargo ship was hit near Oman, and Iran's FM warns interference will delay the reopening, even as US-Iran talks move to Doha. Barrels stay contested (~5.1 mb/d tracker vs wire ~75%) and the shadow read carries (50-65% of all traffic dark).

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-27

  Global Market Commentary — 27 Jun 2026

  Week wrap: the AI unwind reasserts — rotation, not the Micron relief, was the signal. The Nasdaq logged a fifth straight losing session on data-centre-cost worries and a reported OpenAI IPO delay, yet the S&P held essentially flat (−2% on the week, just under its 50-DMA) as money rotated into defensives, value and cyclicals. Brent held $74.44; yields eased despite the hot 3.4% core PCE.

• Greece News Run2026-06-27

  Greece News Run — 27 Jun 2026

  The oil-disinflation trade kept winning the Greek tape into the Friday close and the H1 mark: ADMIE ripped +6.3% to lead the duration block, refiners caught the crude-crack bid, while banks softened after Alpha's AGM. Brent held $74.44; the global AI rotation into value/defensives suits the Greek mix into Tuesday's H1 close.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-27

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 78% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — but the near-term premium discharge paused: Brent held ~$74.44 (-20.6% 1m) while the curve steepened back to +$3.97 backwardation on a deeper 2026 glut, and a fresh Kpler read flags 94% of transits routing outside the IMO lane — a shadow normalisation, not a clean one. The gaps to Phase 5: barrels ~5.1 mb/d and a clean IAEA inspector entry.

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-26

  Global Market Commentary — 26 Jun 2026

  Hot PCE met by an oil crash — the market held. Core PCE (May) ran hot on the headline (3.4% y/y) but the monthly core was in-line; Treasury yields slipped and the S&P finished flat on its 50-DMA. The reason a 3.4% print did not bite: Brent crashed 4.8% to $72.86, its curve flipping into contango for the first time since the war — a powerful disinflationary offset.

• Greece News Run2026-06-26

  Greece News Run — 26 Jun 2026

  The oil crash rewires the Greek tape: with Brent down a 4th straight day to $72.86 and the curve flipping into contango, refiners and airlines catch the bid while banks fade a third day into today's Alpha AGM. Motor Oil +2.1%, HELLENiQ +0.9%, Aegean +1.7%; EUROB/ETE −2.4%. The deflating Hormuz premium is the disinflationary offset under Greek duration.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-26

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 26 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 78% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — the prompt spread flips to bearish contango for the first time since the war as crude near a pre-war low ($72.86, -22.7% 1m); Saudi tankers restart Gulf exports and Jun 24 ran 62 transits, just 5 dark (~8%). The holdbacks: barrels still ~5.1 mb/d and the IAEA inspector-access dispute that caps durability.

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-25

  Global Market Commentary — 25 Jun 2026

  Stabilised — and Micron resets the AI trade. The de-risking stabilised, then the catalyst that caused it was refuted: after the bell Micron printed a record fiscal-Q3 ($41.5bn revenue, $50bn FQ4 guide, ~86% gross margin). Core PCE (May), due 8:30 ET today, is the last gate on the rebound.

• Greece News Run2026-06-25

  Greece News Run — 25 Jun 2026

  A second, milder down day for the Greek tape — and the global cloud that caused it is lifting: the AI-doubt selloff stabilised, the US held its 50-DMA, and Micron's record print overnight refutes the AI-returns fear. Piraeus Port (PPA) +7.3% the standout; METLEN ex-div today, Alpha AGM tomorrow; sub-$77 Brent keeps the disinflation tailwind under the duration block.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-25

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 25 Jun 2026

  Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — transparency improves (Jun 23: 25 transits, 3 dark ~12%) and ~35M bbl of backlog clears, while Brent extends to $72.86 (-22.7% 1m, a pre-war low). But the key positive watch item flips negative: IAEA inspector access is now an open US-Iran dispute, re-arming verification/snapback risk inside the 60-day window.