Dailies.

The free daily publications, published in full. Each one carries the whole system inside it — the commentary roadsigns to the radars, Hormuz feeds the oil and inflation reads.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-11

  Delphic QuickTakes — 11 Sep 2026

  The ECB raised to 2.50% unanimously, told the market inflation stays well above target for an extended period, and declined to pre-commit to anything — so the market priced 88bp more tightening into September 2027. Add the hottest annual PPI of 2026 and a Houthi ground offensive that took a Red Sea port, and the US 2-year moved 17bp with the 10-year through 4.97%. But take the move apart before calling it a de-anchoring: real yields carried 10.5 of the 13.2bp, the 5y5y forward did not move, and gold fell 2.5%. This is orderly tightening, not a loss of faith.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-11

  Global Market Commentary — 11 Sep 2026

  **THE ECB CALLED ITS OWN HIKE A 'NO-BRAINER' AND THE BOND MARKET TOOK IT LITERALLY.** The ECB raised to **2.50%** unanimously and told the market **'inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period'** — a hawkish surprise. Markets now price a further **88bp of tightening** peaking in September 2027. Add a hot **August PPI (+0.4% m/m, 5.4% y/y — the highest 12-month reading of 2026)** and **Brent through $105** on the Houthi seizure of Mokha, and the curve broke: **UST 2y +17.0bp to 4.594%**, **10y +13.2bp to 4.973%**, **30y 5.378%**. Wall Street fell a **fourth straight session** (**S&P 7,591.70, -0.58%**).

• Greece News Run2026-09-11

  Greece News Run — 11 Sep 2026

  **The ECB hiked, called it a no-brainer, and Greek banks were the one part of Europe that liked it.** The General Index closed 10 September at **2,697.58 (-0.15%)** on turnover of about **EUR 394m**, but the **banks index rose 0.45% to 3,200.83** - outperforming both a European bank sector that was flat-to-lower and a global tape having its fourth straight down day. **Alpha led at +1.72%**, and **Eurobank had its outlook raised to positive** by a ratings agency in the same session. That is a rate-sensitive banking system behaving exactly as it should on the day its central bank raised to **2.50%** and told the market **inflation stays well above target for an extended period**, with officials already signalling October and **88bp of further tightening** now priced to a September 2027 peak. **The other half of the ledger is where it hurts.** Greek 10-year yields sold **9.3bp to 4.242%** in a synchronised euro-area move, and the domestic cost base is now the government's hardest file: **unleaded near EUR 2.10/litre**, **wholesale power toward EUR 200/MWh**, European gas at four-year highs, and **Brent at $108**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-11

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 11 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING), velocity DETERIORATING. This edition opens with a correction against ourselves, because the most useful thing we found today refutes something we published yesterday. WE RE-SPECIFY THE TRIGGER WE ARMED. On 10 September we put a fifth Phase-1 trigger on the board — a VLCC-exit stall persisting past roughly ten days — on the observation that no very large crude carrier had cleared Hormuz outbound since 2 September.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-10

  Delphic QuickTakes — 10 Sep 2026

  Brent settled $101.21 on 9 September, its first close above $100 since July, and Wall Street fell for a third straight session. The more useful fact is what happened at the long end: the 10-year closed at 4.841%, a level last seen before 1 November 2023, on the very day the Treasury tripled its buyback of longer-dated debt to $6bn — an operation the market called too small. When a tripled official bid is waved away as insufficient, the level is not a supply problem. Today the ECB raises to 2.50% into euro-area inflation of 3.3%; tomorrow the US August CPI decides a 16 September FOMC that already carries a ~57% chance of a hike.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-10

  Global Market Commentary — 10 Sep 2026

  **THE ENERGY SHOCK NOW HAS TWO CENTRAL BANKS IN FRONT OF IT — AND BOTH DECIDE THIS WEEK.** Brent **SETTLED $101.21 on 9 September (+3.4%)**, its first close above $100 since July, and marks **$101.09**. Wall Street fell for a **third straight session** — **S&P 500 7,636.36 (-0.48%)**, **Dow 52,380.66 (-0.77%)** — while the **UST 10y jumped 6.5bp to 4.841%**, **a level last seen before 1 November 2023** — and it did so on the day the Treasury tripled its longer-dated buyback to **$6bn**, an operation the market judged **too small**. Europe took it harder: **DAX -1.66%**, **Euro Stoxx 50 -1.58%**, and a synchronised euro-area bond selloff — **Bund +7.7bp, BTP +11.0bp, GGB +10.9bp**. **The ECB decides today** (25bp to 2.50%, ~99% priced) into euro-area August inflation of **3.3%** with **energy at +14.3%**; the **US August CPI lands tomorrow**; the **FOMC is Wednesday 16 September with a HIKE at ~57%**.

• Greece News Run2026-09-10

  Greece News Run — 10 Sep 2026

  **The index barely moved and the composition moved violently - that is the energy shock arriving inside Athens rather than on top of it.** The General Index closed 9 September at **2,701.69 (-0.18%)** on turnover of about **EUR 428m**, 40 advancers against 64 decliners. Underneath: **HELLENiQ +6.29% to EUR 17.73** and **Motor Oil +3.38% to EUR 67.20** as Brent settled **$101.21**, its first close above $100 since July; **PPC +2.75%**, **OTE +2.13%**; and the **banks index -1.14%**, in line with European banks at **-1.15%**. **Read the bank move as beta, not as a Greek story** - and read the refiner move as the war's transmission channel into the Greek accounts. **The bill for the same shock lands on the other side of the ledger today.** Greek **August HICP re-accelerated to 3.7%** from 2.7% in July, comfortably above the euro-area **3.3%**; heating oil is flagged toward **EUR 1.90/litre**, wholesale power runs near **EUR 183/MWh** and gas near **EUR 79/MWh**, with new diesel and heating-oil measures under consideration.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-10

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING), and the reason to keep reading is not the badge but what moved underneath it. THE TANKER WAR HAS BECOME A CAMPAIGN. On the night of 8 September CENTCOM destroyed FIVE Iranian crude carriers in a single action — M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1 and M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, M/T Derya near Kharg Island — and published video of the Riesco SINKING. That is the largest single day of tanker destruction of this war, and it followed the three-hull strike of 5 September by seventy-two hours.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-08

  Delphic QuickTakes — 8 Sep 2026

  US markets were shut Monday for Labor Day, so the last cash close is Friday 4 September — and the weekend did the work instead. Brent settled $97.00 on 7 Sep and marks $97.61, a six-week high and +16.8% on the month, after a sharp 5 September US-Iran exchange and a second strike on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery. That breaks the $96-100 settle we ourselves named as a tip-to-Phase-1 trigger, and today we log it fired and cut our own Hormuz throughput estimate from 14.0 to 8.6 mb/d.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-08

  Global Market Commentary — 8 Sep 2026

  **THE ENERGY SHOCK ARRIVES ON A TAPE THAT WAS SHUT.** US markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, so the last US cash close is **Friday 4 September** — and while the tape was dark, oil did the work. **Brent settled $97.00 on 7 Sep and marks $97.61**, a six-week high, **+16.8% on the month**, on a US-Iran exchange that sharpened on 5 Sep and a second strike on Saudi Aramco's **Jizan refinery (400 kb/d)** on 7 Sep. Europe held: **DAX 26,007 (-0.41%)**, **Athens 2,702.54 (+0.04%) — a 17-year closing high**. Asia sold off overnight.

• Greece News Run2026-09-08

  Greece News Run — 8 Sep 2026

  **Athens closed at a 17-year high on the eve of its own re-rating, and the whole index is now a reclassification trade.** The General Index finished 7 September at **2,702.54 (+0.04%)**, its highest close since October 2009, with the banks index at an **11-year high** and HELLENiQ through a **27-year high**. The driver is structural: **FTSE Russell and STOXX have reclassified Euronext Athens from Emerging to Developed, effective 21 September, with the rebalancing trade on the afternoon of 18 September** - the first eurozone market to reverse a 2013 demotion, with MSCI expected in 2027.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-08

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING). Two things changed on this refresh and BOTH cut against our prior read; we publish both rather than re-draw the lines. FIRST, THE TRIGGER FIRED. We wrote that a Brent daily SETTLE above ~$96-100 would tip full Phase 1. Brent SETTLED $97.00 on 7 Sep and marks $97.61 on 8 Sep — +16.8% on the month, RE-STRESS armed, a six-week high. That line broke. We log it FIRED. SECOND, WE CUT OUR OWN THROUGHPUT NUMBER. The 4 Sep edition made a 'KEY CORRECTION' putting dark-adjusted flow at ~13-16 mb/d and implied openness ~66-70%.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-09-04

  Delphic QuickTakes — 4 Sep 2026

  The 3 Sep tape RALLIED on a Fed VOICE, not the data. **Gov. Waller signalled he would support HOLDING** in September if disinflation continues, flipping **CME Sept-hike odds ~63% → a coin-flip (~50%)**; the 10y fell ~5bp to ~4.75% and the market ran — **S&P +1.12% to 7,752, Nasdaq 100 +1.30%, Dow +1.15%**, the semis-led move OVERRUNNING Broadcom's light Q4 guide. Both risk AND haven bid: **gold +2.4% (~$4,470)** as real yields fell, VIX ~14.5.

• Global Market Commentary2026-09-04

  Global Market Commentary — 4 Sep 2026

  **A dovish-Waller rally — read it in layers.** **(1) The Fed VOICE moved the tape, not the data.** **Gov. Waller signalled he would support HOLDING** in September if disinflation continues ('give disinflation a chance'), flipping **CME Sept-hike odds ~63% → a coin-flip (~50%)**; the 10y fell ~5bp to ~4.75% and equities ran — **S&P +1.12% to 7,752, Nasdaq 100 +1.30%, Dow +1.15%**, the semis-led move OVERRAN Broadcom's light Q4 guide.

• Greece News Run2026-09-04

  Greece News Run — 4 Sep 2026

  **The read (Thursday 3 Sep, the 3 Sep close).** The Athens tape RALLIED with the world - the **General Index +1.62% to 2,691** - broad and cyclical, as a global **dovish-Waller repricing** (a Fed Governor signalled a September hold, flipping US hike odds ~63%->~50%) lifted risk. **Viohalco +6.2%, Cenergy +3.7%** led, the banks firmed +2-3% (Alpha +2.72%, NBG +2.39%), and Motor Oil +2.95% (HELLENiQ -1.52% the laggard).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-09-04

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Sep 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile — RE-ESCALATING, consolidating). The vector stays RE-ESCALATING off the 31 Aug double tanker strike (the 7th hull hit since the 14 Jul blockade) and the US retaliation on 1 Sep — strikes on IRGC positions INSIDE Iran, a kinetic exchange but NOT a chokepoint-closing event.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-21

  Delphic QuickTakes — 21 Aug 2026

  Read the two sessions separately. Thursday 20 Aug the US **CASH** tape rolled over: the buyback relief faded and the long end re-broke higher — the broad market fell (**S&P 500 -0.8%, Dow -1.3% (~-700), Russell 2000 -1.4%** [CASH]), Walmart -9% on slowing US sales dragged the consumer, and the VIX closed 16.01.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-21

  Global Market Commentary — 21 Aug 2026

  **There is no US cash open yet — read the overnight precisely: US index FUTURES firmed on a memory-led bid, but the long end did not re-ease, so it is a relief bid INSIDE the higher-for-longer regime, not a yields-defeated all-clear.** **(1) Thursday's US CASH session rolled over.** The S&P fell **-0.84% (SPY 762.63)**, the Dow **-1.3% (~-700)**, the Russell 2000 **-1.4%** and Nasdaq Comp -1.0%, with breadth POOR and VIX at 16.01 — the buyback relief faded

• Greece News Run2026-08-21

  Greece News Run — 21 Aug 2026

  **The read (Friday 21 Aug, on the Thu 20 Aug close): the day's event is the FTSE Russell EM reshuffle at TONIGHT's close — the LAST EM rebalance before Greece's upgrade to DEVELOPED MARKET on 21 Sept 2026 — as the tape reclaims 2,600 and the refiners set fresh records.** The GI closed **2,599.44 (+0.23%)**, back above 2,600 and ~1% below the 17-yr high ~**2,628** (still +23.7% YTD), with the banks index steadying **+0.39% to 3,034.75** — a bounce off Wedne

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-21

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 21 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 → 1 TRANSITION (ESCALATING). The escalation HOLDS and hardens, now IN THE CORRIDOR: the first transit FATALITY of the campaign and the first SEIZURE since June both landed.

• Sunday Greek Press Digest2026-08-16

  Sunday Greek Press Digest — 16 Aug 2026

  **The re-rating is proven — and now MATURING.** The ATHEX closed the week at a 17-year high (GI 2,623.25, +0.31% on the week, YTD +23.7%), refiner-led: Motor Oil ripped +4.85% to a fresh ATH €55.10 on its confirmed MSCI add — the 'sell-the-news' did NOT materialise — and HELLENiQ set a record €14.57, both riding the Iran-Hormuz premium that is a POSITIVE for Greek refiners and tankers, the inverse of the drag elsewhere. But the developed-market flow story got re-cut (standalone FTSE a net outflow, STOXX-rescued; banks ~71% not ~90%; P/Es now a ~1% premium), so the next leg is corporate — M&A and consolidation (UniCredit at 29.8% of Alpha) and the fiscal doubleheader — not the passive bid.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-14

  Delphic QuickTakes — 14 Aug 2026

  Be precise, because our read and the market's diverge — and the QuickTakes must say ours. The market read the flat July **CPI/PPI headlines** as an all-clear on the Fed, priced the Sept-**HIKE** tail DOWN to **~35%** (2y to a new low ~4.14%) and ran risk to records — Thu 13 Aug the **S&P closed a record 7,798.99** (cleared 7,800), the Nasdaq-100 broke 30,000, the Russell 2000 also a record.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-14

  Global Market Commentary — 14 Aug 2026

  **The tape made new records — but on a rate read we FADE, so it's a chase, not an underwritten breakout.** **(1) There is NO flip to a cut — and the market's dovish read is one we fade.** Cross-checked to our 13-Aug US Macro Flash: the market read the flat July CPI/PPI **headlines** as an all-clear, priced the Sept-**HIKE** tail DOWN to ~35% (from ~50%) and ran the 2y to a new low **~4.14%**.

• Daily Greek Market & News Digest2026-08-14

  Daily Greek Market & News Digest — 14 Aug 2026

  **The read (Friday 14 Aug, on the Thu 13 Aug close): the MSCI verdict is IN — Motor Oil ADDED to the Standard index — and it SOLD THE NEWS; the ATHEX holds near its 17-year high on a thin pre-holiday tape.** The General Index closed Thu at **2,613.23 (-0.02%)** on light turnover (~€211.5m; the Fri 14 Aug pre-15-Aug-holiday session is not yet indexed).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-14

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 14 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the WAR PREMIUM BLEEDS, but on DEMAND not DE-ESCALATION, and the PHYSICAL throttle TIGHTENS even as the price falls. Brent round-tripped from its 12 Aug high (~$89.8) to ~$87.12 (WTI ~$81.37); gold eased -1.3% to ~$4,322.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-12

  Delphic QuickTakes — 12 Aug 2026

  Two forces hit the tape at once. **Last night**, after Tuesday's close, **CoreWeave** (rev +112%, backlog **$104bn -> $129bn** — ~$25bn of net-new contracted demand in under six weeks, capex raised to $35-39bn) and **Super Micro** (FY27 guide **$65-72bn vs ~$54bn** Street, gross margin **8% -> 16%**) beat and bid ~+9-10% after-hours — the strongest evidence yet that the hyperscaler-capex arc is meeting REAL contracted demand, but an INFRASTRUCTURE-layer (L1/L2) bid, not the m

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-12

  Global Market Commentary — 12 Aug 2026

  **The AI-infrastructure bid and the oil-inflation/CPI tail are COEXISTING, not one overriding the other — the market can rally on the backlog print and still respect the oil-core tail.** **(1) The AI beats are a durability signal, not froth — and they're rotating into infrastructure.** After Tuesday's close, **CoreWeave** (rev +112%, backlog **$104bn->$129bn** — ~$25bn of net-new contracted demand in under six weeks — FY26 capex raised to $35-39bn) and **Super Micro** (FY27 g

• Daily Greek Market & News Digest2026-08-12

  Daily Greek Market & News Digest — 12 Aug 2026

  **The read (Wednesday 12 Aug, on the Tue 11 Aug close): Athens firmed back near its 17-year high into TONIGHT'S MSCI verdict, with the oil surge handing the refiners a live tailwind.** The General Index closed Tue at **2,614.44 (+0.29%)**, back near Friday's high (the banking index +0.31% to ~3,055, +32.5% YTD, near 11-yr highs), and **HELLENiQ jumped +4.6%** with PPC +1.6% on the oil surge (Brent testing $90).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-12

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 12 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the ESCALATION PREMIUM RE-LOADS as fresh attacks on shipping puncture deal-optimism, and oil TESTS $90 — but the Strait is NOT freshly shut. The overnight climb is peripheral to Hormuz: Yemen’s government says Houthis killed SIX in a missile strike on a vessel in BAB AL-MANDEB (a SEPARATE chokepoint), and US CENTCOM disabled a blockade-runner — layered on collapsed Iranian/Kharg loadings and a hardline SNSC (Rezaei: ‘only our route’).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-11

  Delphic QuickTakes — 11 Aug 2026

  Monday was a quiet consolidation near Friday's record — the **S&P eased just -0.06% to 7,753.11** as the AI/speculative tail gave back (**Nvidia and AMD each -2.9%**, IREN -6.0%) and small caps softened (Russell -0.56%): the index held because money ROTATED, not because it topped.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-11

  Global Market Commentary — 11 Aug 2026

  **Monday consolidated near the record; overnight the oil-inflation tail re-armed hard, and the week is now a binary on CPI with $88 Brent as the live cross-current.** **(1) Monday was rotation, not a top.** The S&P eased just -0.06% to **7,753.11** (a whisker off Friday's record 7,757.64), but under the hood the AI/speculative complex took a breather — **Nvidia and AMD each -2.9%**, Micron -1.9%, IREN -6.0%, Bloom -4.0% — while small caps softened (Russell -0.56%); the index

• Greece News Run2026-08-11

  Greece News Run — 11 Aug 2026

  **The read (Tuesday 11 Aug, on the Mon 10 Aug close): Athens EASED off its 17-year high into tomorrow's MSCI verdict, and the oil surge hands the refiners a tailwind.** The General Index eased **-0.31% to 2,606.95** Monday, just off Friday's 17-yr high of 2,615 (banks near 11-yr highs — National at an 11-year high, ~€15bn cap; Piraeus a ~5-yr high; YTD ~+23%) — an orderly consolidation, not a franchise signal.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-11

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 11 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL MOVES BACKWARD and the WAR PREMIUM RE-BIDS HARD into CPI. The oil surge is DIPLOMATIC, not physical: on 10 Aug Trump REJECTED Iran’s reparations demand and COUNTER-demanded Iran pay the US ‘for the people they have killed and wounded with roadside bombs,’ and Tehran installed HARDLINER Mohsen Rezaei (IRGC commander 1981-97) as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council — the exact body that must sign the Oman corridor.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-10

  Delphic QuickTakes — 10 Aug 2026

  The payrolls-pivot risk-on held into the weekend — and the tell sharpened. Friday's July payrolls (**NFP -23k**, a contraction) took the Fed HIKE off the table and left the **S&P at a record 7,757.64** (the week the strongest since April).

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-10

  Global Market Commentary — 10 Aug 2026

  **The payrolls-pivot risk-on held into the weekend — but the twin bid sharpened, and the week is now a binary on CPI.** **(1) The record close held.** Friday's July payrolls (NFP **-23k**, a contraction) took the Fed HIKE off the table and ripped risk to records (**S&P 7,757.64**, the week the strongest since April); the radar, refreshed today, ratifies it — **Monetary EASED to +0.50** (the hike premium out), Growth held +0.86, Risk neutral -0.13.

• Greece News Run2026-08-10

  Greece News Run — 10 Aug 2026

  **The read (Monday 10 Aug, on the Fri 7 Aug close): Athens holds its 17-year high into a DOUBLE index catalyst — the MSCI review Wednesday and the FTSE/S&P developed-market reclassification on 21 Sept.** The General Index closed Fri at **2,615** (+0.25%, a 5th straight close above 2,600; week +1.8%, banks at 11-year highs, YTD +23%), and Monday opened FIRM (the banking index above 3,000).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-10

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STAYS UNSIGNED and a TANKER WAS STRUCK during ‘final-stage’ talks — talks close while the war continues.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-08

  Delphic QuickTakes — 8 Aug 2026

  The week turned on Friday's jobs number — and left a tell. July payrolls printed **-23,000** (an outright contraction vs a +83k consensus), with **-103k of revisions** and participation down to 61.4%; that pulled the Fed **hike** the market had feared off the table (**September hike odds 42%, from 58%**), rallied bonds (**2Y 4.19%, 10Y 4.60%**), and ripped risk to **records** — the **S&P to 7,757.64**, the Nasdaq to a record, the week the strongest since April.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-08

  Global Market Commentary — 8 Aug 2026

  **The 72-hour arc resolved into a payrolls pivot with a twist — and the twist is the twin bid.** **(1) The week's engine was Friday's payrolls.** July NFP printed **-23,000** — an outright contraction vs a +83k consensus — with **-103k of revisions** to May/June and participation down to 61.4% (the 4.1% unemployment rate fell for the wrong reason).

• Greece News Run2026-08-08

  Greece News Run — 8 Aug 2026

  **The read (Saturday 8 Aug, on the Fri 7 Aug close): Athens held its 17-year high through a strong corporate season and a whippy global week — the General Index closed Fri at 2,615 (+0.25%), a 5th straight close above 2,600.** The **week +1.7%** (banks +2.5% to 11-year highs), **YTD +23.3%**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-08

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STAYS UNSIGNED and its LEAKED TERMS turn HAWKISH — oil RE-BID even THROUGH a dovish US payrolls shock. Five days past target the Iran-Oman channel is STILL unsigned (Rubio ‘progress not finality’), and the leaked draft is TOUGHER than first priced: BAR US/Israeli vessels, a 20% cargo fine, no parliament clearance, no reopening until the US lifts its port blockade — a narrow navigation channel, not the US package.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-06

  Delphic QuickTakes — 6 Aug 2026

  The dividend gave some back. The Bessent/Trump 'Wednesday or Thursday' Iran signature **did not land** — Rubio called it 'progress but not finality,' and what is taking shape is a **narrow Iran-Oman navigation channel**, not the broad US package, with the Strait still physically shut. So the war premium **re-bid**: **Brent +2.3% to $79.80**, and **gold +2.3%**. A weak **ADP (+44k vs ~70k)** added a growth scare — the **2-year eased to 4.18%, the 10-year to 4.61%**.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-06

  Global Market Commentary — 6 Aug 2026

  **The de-escalation dividend is not a straight line — on 6 Aug it partly reversed.** **(1) The deal stalled, and the war premium re-bid.** The Bessent/Trump 'Wednesday or Thursday' signature did NOT land — Rubio called it 'progress but not finality,' and what is taking shape is a **narrow Iran-Oman navigation channel** (coordinates agreed, a joint statement 'in the final stage'), not the broad US-brokered package Washington wanted, with the Strait still physically shut.

• Greece News Run2026-08-06

  Greece News Run — 6 Aug 2026

  **The read (Thursday 6 Aug): Athens holds its 17-year high but consolidates beneath it — METLEN reported H1 TODAY a clean BEAT, the season's last big leg, while the banks take profit and the GLOBAL tape turns risk-off.** On the latest close (5 Aug) the General Index held near **2,623** (its highest since 2009), but the **banking index eased ~1.2%** — profit-taking after the record run: **National €16.17 (-1.8%)**, **Eurobank €4.48 (-1.4%)**, Piraeus €10.05 (-0.5%), Alpha €4.4

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-06

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 6 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STALLS UNSIGNED and the PRICE RE-BIDS toward the FLOW. The Wed/Thu (5-6 Aug) signature SLIPPED — Rubio ‘progress but not finality’; Iran and Oman agreed the navigable-channel COORDINATES but the joint statement is only ‘in the final stage,’ and it is a NARROW Iran-Oman arrangement, not the broad US package. With the reopening trade partly unwound, Brent RE-BID +2.3% to $79.80 and GOLD +2.3% — the war premium creeping back.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-05

  Delphic QuickTakes — 5 Aug 2026

  The de-escalation dividend is now flowing through the whole chain. On the nearing Iran deal, **Brent held its crash to $78** (5 Aug) — roughly **−10% off the ~$87 pre-deal level** — and, the confirmation we were waiting for, the **10-year finally eased to 4.60%** (−10bp) and the **2-year to 4.20%**: the oil relief is being **ratified by rates**, fading the hawkish-hike pressure.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-05

  Global Market Commentary — 5 Aug 2026

  **The de-escalation dividend has now flowed through the entire chain.** **(1) Oil crashed and, this time, rates followed.** **Brent held its crash to $78** (5 Aug) — roughly **−10% off the ~$87 pre-deal level** — and the piece that had been missing arrived: the **10-year eased to 4.60%** (−10bp) and the **2-year to 4.20%**.

• Greece News Run2026-08-05

  Greece News Run — 5 Aug 2026

  **The read (Wednesday 5 Aug): Athens HOLDS its 17-year high but ROTATES beneath it — the banks take profit after the 4-Aug surge while the H1 corporate season delivers across industrials, utilities and energy.** The General Index sits near **2,630-2,640** (its highest since 2009; the 4 Aug close was 2,628.73), flat-to-firm on the day, but the **banking index eased ~0.7%** — mild profit-taking, not a reversal: **Piraeus €10.04 (-0.6%)**, NBG €16.37 (-0.6%), Eurobank €4.54 (fla

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-05

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 5 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2; the DE-ESCALATION deepens toward a DEAL, the PRICE racing AHEAD of the FLOW. Oil kept crashing — Brent to $78 (5 Aug, ~-10% off the ~$87 pre-deal level) — and, the confirmation, the US 10Y EASED to 4.60% (the S&P at a store record 7,736). The deal is CLOSE (Treasury/Trump aim Wed/Thu; a 60-day Oman-Iran interim — free movement, mines cleared in 30 days).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-08-04

  Delphic QuickTakes — 4 Aug 2026

  The trade we flagged arrived. On the **2 Aug Iran deal framework** (the US attack called off, the Strait to re-open), Monday **3 Aug repriced it hard**: **Brent crashed ~4.8% to a 3-week low ~$84** (intraday −7%), the **10-year fell off its ~4.74% cycle high**, and risk **ripped** — the **S&P +1.5% to ~7,600**, the Nasdaq +2.1%, the **Dow to a RECORD close (53,178)**, and **Amazon closed above $3 trillion** (the 2nd US company ever) on AWS.

• Global Market Commentary2026-08-04

  Global Market Commentary — 4 Aug 2026

  **The week resolved its two big questions and then the weekend re-opened a third.** **(1) The AI-capex verdict finished SPLIT.** The mega-cap prints adjudicated the trillion-dollar-build debate as a **within-complex re-sort, not a top**: **Amazon +12%** (AWS re-accelerating) and Microsoft's Azure blowout were REWARDED, while **Apple -7.4%** (~-8.6% two-day; soft Services, a China miss, a light guide, no AI product) was PUNISHED — the market now discriminates on who is MONETIS

• Greece News Run2026-08-04

  Greece News Run — 4 Aug 2026

  **The read (Tuesday 4 Aug, on the 3 Aug 17-YEAR HIGH): the risk-on from the 2 Aug Iran deal framework (oil crashing, US markets to records) carried Athens to its highest close since Nov 2009 — the General Index +1.64% to 2,611.77 on 3 Aug (YTD +23%), the banking index +2.43% to an 11-year high (3,036).** The banks LED on their record H1 numbers (all four beat/raised, ~€2.5bn aggregate) and a wave of sell-side upgrades — a domestic securities house sees the biggest upside in *

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-08-04

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Aug 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2, but the DE-ESCALATION is now PRICED. The 2 Aug deal framework (US attack called off, the Strait to re-open) did what we flagged: Monday Brent GAPPED DOWN ~4.8% to a 3-week low ~$84 (intraday −7%), the 10Y fell off its cycle high, risk rallied hard (Amazon $3trn, Dow a record).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-31

  Delphic QuickTakes — 31 Jul 2026

  The week's fear reversed. On 30 Jul the tape **REBOUNDED hard**, erasing the post-FOMC rout: the S&P **+1.66% (7,438)**, the Nasdaq **+2.78%**, the Dow +1.19% — led by **MICROSOFT +15.5%**, a blowout (Azure AI run-rate +123%, capex +70% and the market REWARDED the spend). **3 of 4 hyperscalers won** (MSFT, Amazon +9%, Nvidia +2.7%); META -8% the exception (2026 capex $115-135bn without the monetisation), Apple soft (China).

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-31

  Global Market Commentary — 31 Jul 2026

  **The geopolitical relief faded, and two forces took over: a global semis rout and a hawkish Fed repricing.** **(1) The AI/semis de-rating RESURGED — and went global.** The 'contained semis correction' broadened into a worldwide **chip rout**: SanDisk **-11%** and Nvidia lower Monday, and this morning **Nvidia ~-5%, AMD -5.2%, SK Hynix -7.5%** pre-market, dragging **Nikkei -4.26%** and **Kospi ~-8%**.

• Greece News Run2026-07-31

  Greece News Run — 31 Jul 2026

  **The read (on Thursday 30 Jul's close): the H1 BANK SEASON IS DELIVERING RECORDS ACROSS THE BOARD — and the ATHEX has printed a 17-YEAR HIGH (2,571.90, +1.25%), the banking index +1.78%.** The demand-side proof is now IN: **Eurobank** reported adj.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-31

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 31 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2. DE-ESCALATION RESUMING, with the FIRST physical thaw. No new strikes on Iran soil since ~27 Jul; the 10-day ceasefire (Qatar/Egypt/Oman) is PROPOSED and RECEIVED by Iran but NOT signed. Brent has fallen to ~$86.99 (openness ~41%). The constructive tell: the anchored fleet is beginning to MOVE — Qatar's Al Areesh LNG exited 30 Jul (first in ~3 weeks), an ADNOC carrier reappeared, US Navy escorting some tankers.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-27

  Delphic QuickTakes — 27 Jul 2026

  This morning is a **geopolitical relief rally**. Over the weekend the **US and Iran PAUSED strikes**, and **Brent has TUMBLED ~6% to ~$91** (sub-$90 intraday) as the war premium unwinds — risk-on across the board: **US futures bid (S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq-100 +1.4%)**, Europe higher (Euro STOXX 50 +0.9%), Asia positive ex-Japan, **10Y -5bp to ~4.64%**, gold +2%.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-27

  Global Market Commentary — 27 Jul 2026

  **Stabilization, not recovery — a two-speed tape: the broad risk-off steadied while the AI de-rating narrowed and deepened into SEMIS.** **(1) The broad tape STABILISED.** The S&P held **+0.05% (~7,412)** and the Dow rose **+0.46%**; Europe was GREEN across the board (**STOXX 600 +0.82%, DAX +1.36%, CAC +0.88%**) — a relief rally as the oil spike pared. The panic leg of Thursday's risk-off did not extend.

• Greece News Run2026-07-27

  Greece News Run — 27 Jul 2026

  **The weekend read (on Friday 24 Jul's close): Athens BOUNCED +1.49% to 2,492.71 — a bank-led relief rally as Brent pared off $100 and Europe turned green; the mirror of Thursday, oil still the near-term master.** The **General Index CLOSED 2,492.71 (+1.49%**, one push short of 2,500), clawing back most of Thursday's -2.02% oil-driven drop (week +1.85%).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-27

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2. The STRIKE PAUSE: a PRICE relief the PHYSICAL has not yet followed. The US and Iran PAUSED strikes over the weekend, and Brent TUMBLED ~9% to ~$88.40 — naive openness rising to ~37% (from ~11% Friday) as the war premium unwinds. BUT the physical is unchanged: ~4 mb/d (~20%), ~448 vessels ANCHORED, no owners yet resuming. So the price is FRONT-RUNNING the flow — the Two-Clock divergence FLIPS: price (~37%) now runs AHEAD of the physical (~17-25%).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-24

  Delphic QuickTakes — 24 Jul 2026

  The chop resolved **DOWN** into a stagflation-tinged risk-off. Mega-cap leadership **CRACKED on earnings** — **Google -6.9%, Tesla -14.5%** — dragging the **S&P -1.2% (~7,430)**, the AI complex broadly lower (Micron +3.2% the lone DRAM exception).

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-24

  Global Market Commentary — 24 Jul 2026

  **The chop resolved DOWN — a stagflation-tinged risk-off, on mega-cap earnings cracks and oil through $100.** **(1) Equities — the de-rating resumed.** The S&P fell **-1.23% (~7,430)**, and this time the leadership CRACKED on earnings: **Google -6.89%** and **Tesla -14.52%** on soft results dragged the tape, with the AI complex broadly lower (**Nvidia -1.6%, AMD -2.3%, TSMC -1.3%**) — **Micron +3.2%** the lone exception, riding the DRAM upcycle.

• Greece News Run2026-07-24

  Greece News Run — 24 Jul 2026

  **The Friday read (on Thursday 23 Jul's close): the bank-led rally FULLY REVERSED — Athens -2.02% to 2,456 — as Brent broke $100 and the oil shock dragged Europe down; the decoupling is over, oil is the master.** The **General Index CLOSED 2,456.16 (-2.02%**, intraday low 2,433), back below 2,500 after the 21-22 Jul bank-led rally to 2,506.79.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-24

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 24 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Hormuz), but a SECOND CHOKEPOINT opens. The siege's TENTH day; Brent BREAKS $100 ($100.35), naive implied openness ~2%. But the break is NOT a Hormuz closure — it is the RED SEA: Houthis hit the Saudi tanker Encelia, Saudi PAUSED Red Sea shipments, the Petroline bypass under fire. The SIEGE WIDENED to two chokepoints.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-23

  Delphic QuickTakes — 23 Jul 2026

  Equities went nowhere in a two-sided **chop**: the AI complex split (**Nvidia +2.3%, AMD +1.5%** led, but **Micron -1.2%, Google -1.2%, Bloom -3.6%** stayed soft), the **S&P ~flat** — floor-vs-dead-cat still unresolved. The tape's driver shifted to **OIL**: Brent BROKE **$95 ($95.98)**, up ~8% in two days, on a genuine escalation — a **NEW Red Sea / Houthi front** hitting Saudi's bypass, the **US-Iran talks collapsing**, and a Trump infrastructure threat.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-23

  Global Market Commentary — 23 Jul 2026

  **Equities went nowhere in a two-sided chop; the day's real action was in OIL.** **(1) Equities — an indecisive, split tape.** The AI complex divided cleanly: **Nvidia +2.3%, AMD +1.5%** on the semis/scarcity side, but **Micron -1.2%, Google -1.2%** and the speculative tail soft (**Bloom -3.6%, Galaxy -2.4%**, IREN flat), with the **S&P ~flat (-0.12%)** and Apple -0.6%. No direction, low conviction — a market digesting, waiting on the next macro catalyst.

• Greece News Run2026-07-23

  Greece News Run — 23 Jul 2026

  **The Thursday read (on the 21-22 Jul close): Athens BREAKS OUT — a big BANK-LED rally decouples from the US chop — as the government's threads keep cutting ND's way and Aktor prices its €650m SCI.** The **General Index rallied to 2,506.79** — +2.08% on 21 Jul (a **bank-led breakout**) then a third straight gain (+0.24%) on 22 Jul, back above 2,500 and near the ~2,560 17-yr high (YTD +18%).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-23

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 23 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2, but SEVERE, at the EDGE of Phase 1. The siege's NINTH day; Brent BREAKS $95 ($95.98) and the PHYSICAL now CONFIRMS it. Implied openness COLLAPSED to ~15% (from ~37% on 21 Jul), and the flow AGREES: throughput ~5 mb/d (~20-25% of norm), transits -90% YoY, tanker dark-share ~70%. Price (~15%) and physical (~20%) CONVERGE on a SEVERE, REAL supply disruption — NOT a fear premium.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-21

  Delphic QuickTakes — 21 Jul 2026

  Friday's multi-front assault **reversed hard**. The complex that cratered ripped, led by the **most-beaten, most-shorted names** — **IREN +20.3%, Galaxy +9.9%**, the semis bouncing (**Micron +4.4%, AMD +3.1%**), and Friday's cracked leader **Google +1.8%** — while Friday's defensive winners gave it back (**Apple -2.6%, Tesla -2.5%**). Once again the **S&P was ~flat (+0.1%, ~7,515)**, masking a violent factor reversal — the mirror of Friday.

• Greece News Run2026-07-21

  Greece News Run — 21 Jul 2026

  **The Tuesday read (on Monday 20 Jul's close): the tape BASES — a first up-day breaks the five-session slide — while the government's week keeps cutting ND's way.** The **General Index closed 2,449.91, +0.11%** Monday (turnover €261m) — a modest gain, but the FIRST up-session after five down, off the ~2,560 17-yr high (YTD +15.4%).

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-21

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 21 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The siege grinds into a SEVENTH day and the OIL HOLDS its gap: Brent CONSOLIDATED at $88.53 (CO1, from Mon's $88.10, +$0.4 — the weekend gap STICKS) in STEEP backwardation (CO1-CO12 +$11.91, ~15% front/12m) — acute near-term scarcity the market is NOT fading. Yet still a throttled corridor, not a closure: the model reads implied openness ~37% (SPOT) but ~92% at the 12m FORWARD (CO12 $76.62) — INTENSE-but-TEMPORARY.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-20

  Global Market Commentary — 20 Jul 2026

  **Friday's multi-front assault reversed hard, and the cross-asset tape is the mirror image of the session before.** **(1) Equities — the de-rating snaps back, led by the most-beaten names.** The complex that cratered Friday RIPPED: the speculative tail led it (**IREN +20.3%, Galaxy +9.9%**), the semis bounced (**Micron +4.4%, AMD +3.1%, TSMC +1.3%, Nvidia +0.6%**), and Friday's cracked mega-cap leader **Google bounced +1.8%**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-20

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 20 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The siege grinds into a SIXTH day and the OIL is RE-BIDDING: Brent GAPPED to $88.10 (CO1, from Fri's $84.5 (17 Jul)) in STEEP backwardation (CO1-CO12 +$11.4, ~13% front/12m) — pricing an ACUTE near-term scarcity. Yet still a throttled corridor, not a closure: the oil-decomposition model reads implied openness ~38% (SPOT) but ~92% at the 12m FORWARD (CO12 $76.69) — an INTENSE-but-TEMPORARY disruption.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-19

  Delphic QuickTakes — 19 Jul 2026

  The AI/momentum de-rating **deepened and broadened**. Having taken out the speculative tail (Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9%) and the semis (Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%; SOX -10.8%, ~$1.3trn erased), it is now cracking a **mega-cap leader — Google -4.4%**. Yet it is still a **factor unwind, not a broad crash**: the S&P only -0.54% (~7,507), **Apple resilient (+1.76%)**, energy rotating up.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-19

  Global Market Commentary — 19 Jul 2026

  **The AI/momentum de-rating is now a multi-front assault, and the cross-asset tape has to be read on four axes at once.** **(1) Equities — a factor unwind, but the mask is slipping.** The S&P is only **-0.54% (~7,507)**, yet underneath the AI complex is in open de-rating: **Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%, Nvidia -2.4%, TSMC -2.3%** (SOX -10.8%, ~**$1.3trn** of semi cap erased), the speculative AI-adjacents cratering (**Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9.0%, Galaxy -9.2%**).

• Greece News Run2026-07-19

  Greece News Run — 19 Jul 2026

  **The Sunday read (weekend press run): the government's week — both of the week's big developments cut its way — as the tape consolidates (-2.62% on the week to 2,447) with the re-rating INTACT.** The campaign moved past the handout war to the openly pre-negotiated **'day-after' government**: the EPPO's much-hyped **OPEKEPE farm-subsidy probe resolved BOUNDED** (four ND-MP misdemeanours + seven archivings, not the systemic indictment the opposition pre-sold — flipping it to '

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-17

  Delphic QuickTakes — 17 Jul 2026

  The AI/momentum de-rating **deepened and broadened**. Having taken out the speculative tail (Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9%) and the semis (Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%; SOX -10.8%, ~$1.3trn erased), it is now cracking a **mega-cap leader — Google -4.4%**. Yet it is still a **factor unwind, not a broad crash**: the S&P only -0.54% (~7,507), **Apple resilient (+1.76%)**, energy rotating up.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-17

  Global Market Commentary — 17 Jul 2026

  **The AI/momentum de-rating is now a multi-front assault, and the cross-asset tape has to be read on four axes at once.** **(1) Equities — a factor unwind, but the mask is slipping.** The S&P is only **-0.54% (~7,507)**, yet underneath the AI complex is in open de-rating: **Micron -5.7%, AMD -5.3%, Nvidia -2.4%, TSMC -2.3%** (SOX -10.8%, ~**$1.3trn** of semi cap erased), the speculative AI-adjacents cratering (**Bloom -13.6%, IREN -9.0%, Galaxy -9.2%**).

• Greece News Run2026-07-17

  Greece News Run — 17 Jul 2026

  **Friday: a soft, risk-off Athens tape — the domestic supply overhang meeting the GLOBAL AI/momentum drawdown — but the re-rating thesis was VALIDATED, not dented, by a Goldman upgrade and a Metlen surge.** The bourse was broadly heavy: **ELHA -4.7% (€4.43), GEK Terna -3.1% (€44.40), HELLENiQ -2.0% (€12.32), Cenergy -1.8%, Piraeus -1.6% (€9.10), NBG -1.2% (€14.72), Alpha -1.0% (€3.958), PPC -0.9%, Motor Oil -0.6% (€48.58), Eurobank -0.5% (€4.19), Aegean -0.3%**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-17

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 17 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The siege INTENSIFIES but still HOLDS. US strikes ran a THIRD day, the blockade is reinstated, and Iran hit TWO supertankers + struck US assets in Kuwait AND Bahrain; visible AIS-on transits down to ~7/day as ships run dark. Yet it is a throttled corridor, not a closure: Trump ABANDONED the 20% toll, Kharg is spared, and Brent $84.5 (not the $100-130 a shut Strait implies).

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-16

  Delphic QuickTakes — 16 Jul 2026

  The blockade fired — CENTCOM's siege of Iran's ports went live and bit (a vessel disabled off Bandar Abbas; the US struck Abadan/Mahshahr) — realising the **SIEGE we forecast for three months**, now modal at 41. But the target set was bounded: **Trump DROPPED the toll**, Iran's reply was **intercepted**, the US **SPARED Kharg**, GL X survives. A **MANAGED siege, not a closure**.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-16

  Global Market Commentary — 16 Jul 2026

  **A BIFURCATED tape — not the relief rally the toll-drop headline implied.** Wednesday's close was **rotational, with a wide dispersion masked by a modest index**: **mega-cap tech LED** (**Apple +4.01%, Google +3.60%**) and **JPMorgan BEAT (+1.17%)** to firm the financials — but **memory/semis were HAMMERED** (**Micron -8.02%, AMD -3.46%**), so the **S&P only edged +0.40% to ~7,548** (SPY-derived), the mega-cap leadership papering over the semis wreck.

• Greece News Run2026-07-16

  Greece News Run — 16 Jul 2026

  **Wednesday 15 July was a Greece-specific bank-led pullback — a supply-overhang consolidation, NOT a geopolitics risk-off.** The **General Index closed -0.89% at 2,485.75** (back below 2,500), the **banking index -2.25%** the worst sector: **Eurobank -3.66% (€4.21), NBG -2.55% (€14.90), Alpha -2.01% (€3.997), Piraeus -1.43% (€9.246)**.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-16

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 16 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The blockade FIRED, but it is a MANAGED siege, not a closure. CENTCOM's blockade of Iran's ports is in force and biting (a vessel disabled off Bandar Abbas; the US struck Abadan/Mahshahr) — but Trump DROPPED the toll, Iran's Kuwait reply was INTERCEPTED, the US SPARED Kharg, and GL X survives.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-14

  Delphic QuickTakes — 14 Jul 2026

  The escalation we flagged hardened, and the record broke. Over Monday Trump declared the US **'the Guardian of the Hormuz Strait'** and **PROPOSED a 20% toll on all cargo** (announced, NOT imposed — whether/how it is implemented is unknown), and CENTCOM announced a **blockade of Iranian ports** (to resume 14 Jul 4 p.m. ET); Iran struck **two UAE tankers** (Mombasa + Al Bahiyah, the first hull fatality).

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-14

  Global Market Commentary — 14 Jul 2026

  Markets **BROKE THE RECORD**. Monday's Iran/Hormuz escalation took the S&P off Friday's all-time high to **7,515.34 (-0.79%)**, the pain concentrated in tech/AI (**Nasdaq -1.55%**) while energy cushioned the Dow (-0.26%). The trigger was **Trump's Monday move — a PROPOSED 20% toll on all Hormuz cargo ('Guardian of the Strait'; announced, not imposed) plus an announced resumption of the blockade of Iranian ports**, on top of an Iranian strike on two UAE tankers.

• Greece News Run2026-07-14

  Greece News Run — 14 Jul 2026

  **The record held Monday — but Tuesday is a RISK-OFF sell-off, a fresh round of geopolitical liquidations with the banks the epicentre.** Athens closed **Monday 13 Jul at 2,512.07 (-0.05%)**, defending the 2,500 line (it never broke it; YTD +18.5%) — but on **Tuesday the early bid FADED**: by ~11:00 the **General Index was ~-1.2% at ~2,480, BELOW 2,500**, on a fresh round of geopolitical selling as Trump's **PROPOSED 20% Hormuz toll** (and CENTCOM's announced blockade; neithe

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-14

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 14 Jul 2026

  HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). Phase-1 triggers ARMING but UNFIRED — we refuse to over-call closure. The policy track escalated hard (a PROPOSED 20% Hormuz toll, an announced blockade of Iranian ports, two struck UAE tankers), but the PHYSICAL evidence does not support active closure: CENTCOM says the Strait is OPEN, ~8 mb/d still transited (US DOE + Kpler, ~40-55% of normal, NOT ~20%), no terminal is struck (Kharg intact), mining is ARMED not FIRED (a recycl

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-13

  Delphic QuickTakes — 13 Jul 2026

  The pause we flagged as fragile **collapsed**. Over the weekend the IRGC struck the containership **GFS Galaxy** off Oman (11 Jul), the US ran a **third strike round** (~140 targets incl. Qeshm, 12 Jul), and — the defining fact — the IRGC Navy **FORMALLY DECLARED the Strait 'closed until further notice'**, the first legal closure claim of the cycle. Our SoH Monitor **DOWNGRADES to Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire, collapsed)**.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-13

  Global Market Commentary — 13 Jul 2026

  Markets opened **RISK-OFF this Monday** on an Iran/Hormuz **FLARE-UP — then SHOOK IT OFF and REBOUNDED**. The 10-11 Jul pause **COLLAPSED**: the IRGC struck the containership **GFS Galaxy** (11 Jul), the US ran a **third strike round** (~140 targets, Qeshm; 12 Jul), and the IRGC Navy **FORMALLY DECLARED the Strait 'closed'** — so our SoH monitor **DOWNGRADES to Phase 2** and **oil gapped +4%** (Brent ~$79).

• Greece News Run2026-07-13

  Greece News Run — 13 Jul 2026

  **A record Friday into a risk-off Monday that got bought — the structural bid intact, the oil flare a two-sided shock the tape shook off.** Athens closed **Friday 10 Jul at a record 2,513.22 (+0.84%)**, the banking index +1.23%, and **opened Monday RISK-OFF** as the Iran/Hormuz pause **collapsed** (Iran formally declared the Strait 'closed', the US ran a third strike round) — our SoH monitor **DOWNGRADES to Phase 2** and **Brent gapped +4%** to ~$79.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-13

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 13 Jul 2026

  DOWNGRADE — Phase 3 to Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire, collapsed). The 10-11 Jul pause broke: the IRGC struck the containership GFS Galaxy off Oman (11 Jul), the US ran a third strike round (12 Jul; ~140 targets, Qeshm), and the IRGC Navy FORMALLY declared the Strait 'closed until further notice' — the first legal closure claim of the cycle. But Phase 2, not Phase 1: CENTCOM denies the closure, the Strait is physically open, no oil-export terminal is struck (Kharg intact), no mining, and Brent is only ~$79 — the market is not pricing closure. Intraday, the market shook off the headlines as de-escalation signals re-emerged (Qatar/Pakistan mediating, technical talks continuing). The tip to Phase 1 (a Kharg/terminal hit, mining, a blockade, or Brent >$85) is unfired.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-10

  Delphic QuickTakes — 10 Jul 2026

  The bounce vindicated the call. After the hawkish June FOMC minutes lifted yields, the oil-driven jump reversed: the chip complex LED a rebound (SOXX +6% after the -12.9% rout; Micron +8%, AMD +7%) that carried the S&P +0.81% to 7,543.64, 10Y yields eased -2bp to ~4.54%, and oil fell (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3) as the Iran premium bled. We keep the hawkish minutes in view — a 9-8 split, Sept-hike odds ~69% — because a hot June CPI (14 Jul) is the one thing that could still bite. SoH holds Phase 3, tilting to de-escalation; SK Hynix's record ~$29bn ADR made the AI-memory demand signal good; Athens rebounded +0.18%.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-10

  Global Market Commentary — 10 Jul 2026

  The bounce vindicated the call. We refused to call the rate-relief bid refuted, and it re-validated: the chip complex LED a rebound (SOXX +6% after the -12.9% rout; Micron +8%, AMD +7%) that carried the S&P +0.81% to 7,543.64, yields EASED (10Y -2bp to ~4.54%) and oil FELL (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3) as the Iran premium bled. We keep the hawkish June FOMC minutes in view — a 9-8 split, Warsh's 'prices still too high,' Sept-hike odds up to ~69% — because a hot June CPI (14 Jul) is the one thing that could still harden the read. SoH holds Phase 3, tilting to de-escalation; SK Hynix's record ~$29bn ADR made the AI-memory demand signal good.

• Greece News Run2026-07-10

  Greece News Run — 10 Jul 2026

  The dip got bought. Athens rebounded +0.18% to 2,492.20 on 9 Jul (Large-Cap +0.26%, ~€261m turnover), reclaiming ground after the 8 Jul -2.14% sell-off as a global risk-on bounce lifted Europe. Energy led on a Pantelakis upgrade (HELLENiQ up, Motor Oil top pick); GEK Terna's €659.3m raise completed (32% over target) and Aktor signed a 20-yr US-LNG deal into Albania. Greek banks +24.7% YTD into the 29-31 Jul H1 run; the Iran premium is bleeding (Brent ~$76). Politics: MRB (9 Jul) has ND 29.0, ELAS 17.6, PASOK 11.1 — an 11.4-pt ND lead, Mitsotakis the clear top-PM (25.1%), ND win-probability 46.1%.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-10

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Jul 2026

  Phase 3 (partial reopening) HELD — now tilting to de-escalation. The US-Iran exchange continued past the 9 Jul Mashhad burial (a third US strike day; a 10 Jul strike near Ahvaz), so it is not a clean off-ramp — but the market is fading the premium, not building it: oil actually FELL (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3) despite the third strike day, no oil-export terminal has been struck (Kharg unhit), and there is no formal closure. Crucially the Doha channel is reactivating (Axios: 'extensive diplomatic efforts'; US envoys met Qatar's PM). The Strait is open — contested, thinner at ~12 visible transits/day plus a dark flow. The tell is the tape: oil bleeding the war premium. Downgrade to Phase 2 fires only on a terminal strike, a formal closure, or a Brent break through $85 — none in evidence, with oil falling.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-09

  Delphic QuickTakes — 9 Jul 2026

  The minutes came hawkish, the ceasefire 'ended' — and the tape held its nerve. The June FOMC minutes (Warsh's first) came hawkish, but the rate-relief bid was TESTED, not refuted: the 10Y +9bp jump was an oil-driven reaction now easing, and one oily day of rates does not break a regime — June CPI (14 Jul) is the real arbiter. Iran called the ceasefire 'over' but it is contained (Brent ~$80, gold fell); the SoH monitor holds Phase 3. The chip rout deepened (SOXX -12.9%) yet the index absorbed it on rotation, and SK Hynix's record ADR priced >7x oversubscribed — a loud AI-memory demand signal, with chips well bid this morning. Athens took the risk-off, -2.14%.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-09

  Global Market Commentary — 9 Jul 2026

  The arbiter leaned hawkish, but the jury is out. The June FOMC minutes (Warsh's first) came hawkish, and the rate-relief bid was TESTED — not refuted: the 10Y +9bp jump to ~4.57% was largely an oil-driven reaction, already fading as crude eases again today, and one oily day of rates is not a regime break. Iran declared the ceasefire 'over' but it is contained (Brent ~$80, gold fell) — our SoH monitor holds Phase 3. The chip rout deepened (SOXX -12.9%) yet the index absorbed it on rotation (Nasdaq +0.20%), and SK Hynix's record ADR priced >7x oversubscribed — an AI-memory demand signal. Athens took the risk-off, -2.14%. June CPI (14 Jul) is the real arbiter.

• Greece News Run2026-07-09

  Greece News Run — 9 Jul 2026

  A global risk-off dented the tape, not the thesis. Athens sold off -2.14% to 2,487.60 on 8 Jul (intraday below 2,470, -3.33%) in a broad European risk-off — the hawkish June FOMC minutes, Iran's ceasefire called 'over,' and a deepening US chip rout — with banks leading (banking index off >2.5% intraday, Alpha off >3%), breadth ~98:20 and ~€240m turnover. A pullback off 17-year highs, not a de-rating: Fitch's 1 Jul upgrade (Eurobank + NBG to BBB, Piraeus positive) and ~€2.83bn of payouts are intact into the 29-31 Jul H1 results, and Brent ~$80 is a HELLENiQ/Motor Oil refining tailwind. Politics: Interview (7 Jul) has ND 30.1, ELAS 17.4, PASOK 12.3 — the base case an ND-led government.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-09

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 9 Jul 2026

  Phase 3 (partial reopening) HELD — fragile / on-watch, not downgraded. The 8-9 Jul altercations are noisy but contained: Trump called the ceasefire 'over', the US ran a second strike round and Iran hit the Gulf a second night (Kuwait intercepted 2 ballistic missiles + 13 drones) — tit-for-tat amplified by the mourning week for the late Ayatollah Khamenei (burial Mashhad, 9 Jul). This is NOT an all-out resumption of the war. Is the Strait open? Yes — contested and softer (visible transits ~15-18/day plus a dark flow, no terminal struck, no formal closure). The tell that it is contained is the tape: oil is reasonably well-behaved (Brent ~$80, no supply-loss spike) and gold FELL to ~$4,030. We hold Phase 3 for another day or so; Phase 2 fires only if the altercations persist past the mourning week without an off-ramp, a terminal is struck, or a formal closure is declared.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-08

  Delphic QuickTakes — 8 Jul 2026

  A US-Iran exchange, a chip rout, and the minutes. Overnight the Hormuz tanker strike became a military exchange — US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets, Iran hitting Gulf bases — spiking Brent +6% to ~$78.8, while a second-day semiconductor rout dragged the Nasdaq -1.16% and yields rose the wrong way. The rate-relief bid is tested; the SoH monitor downgraded to Phase 3 (the Strait open but moving only ~30-35% of normal). Athens is the calm counterweight on Fitch's upgrades. The June FOMC minutes are the arbiter.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-08

  Global Market Commentary — 8 Jul 2026

  A stagflation-tinged tape into the June FOMC minutes. An overnight US-Iran kinetic exchange (US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets after the Hormuz tanker attacks; Iran hits Gulf bases) spiked Brent +6% to ~$78.8 and lifted yields, colliding with a second-day chip rout (Micron -4.7%) that dragged the Nasdaq -1.16%. The rate-relief bid is now tested, not refuted; the minutes (Warsh's first) are the arbiter. Athens is the calm counterweight, near its 2,560 record on Fitch's investment-grade upgrades.

• Greece News Run2026-07-08

  Greece News Run — 8 Jul 2026

  The record economy is now ratings-validated. Fitch upgraded Eurobank and National Bank to BBB and moved Piraeus to a positive outlook; the systemics are solidly investment-grade into the 29-31 Jul H1 results, with the sector paying ~€2.83bn from 2025 profits. Infra/energy compounds (EU cleared the DEI-Metlen storage JV; the VOAK Crete structure locked), and the Hormuz oil spike is a refining tailwind for HELLENiQ/Motor Oil. Politics: Interview (7 Jul) has ND 30.1, ELAS 17.4, PASOK 12.3, ~50% expecting early elections — the base case an ND-led government.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-08

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Jul 2026

  Downgrade — Phase 4 to Phase 3 (partial reopening) on a two-way US-Iran kinetic exchange (US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets; Iran hits Gulf bases). Is the Strait closed? No — it is open, but running only ~30-35% of normal and thinning: our view for today is visible transits ~15-25/day (down ~40-55%), dark share rising to ~58%, throughput ~4.5 mb/d, with at least four tankers turned back and the threat level 'severe'. Brent +6% to $78.78; the market prices ~70% open while the Strait physically moves ~one-third. A repeat strike, a boarding, a fee imposed, or a Brent +8% break tips it to Phase 2.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-07

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 7 Jul 2026

  Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on a quieter 7 Jul consolidation read — no fresh IRGC diversion or toll escalation on 6-7 Jul, but the IAEA line HARDENS: Gharibabadi extends Iran's access ban to all 20 declared nuclear sites (no inspections before a final deal + full sanctions relief; 'continuity of knowledge' on the uranium stockpile now broken). Diplomacy sits in the Khamenei-funeral hiatus (3-9 Jul); Doha regroups after 9 Jul, Vance calling talks 'going well'. Counts recover (36 transits on 5 Jul, ~35/day) and the dark sweep holds ~55% all-traffic; we hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d tracker over the official ~7 mb/d. Brent ~flat at $72.05 (WTI ~$69.1) on the glut + OPEC+ +188 kb/d; gold eases to ~$4,148 as the geopolitical-hedge bid softens — ~85% implied openness, ~$5/bbl residual. Gates intact and the kinetic stand-down holds, but the durability underwriting moved backward this week.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-06

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 6 Jul 2026

  Brent implies the Strait of Hormuz is ~85% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS, but the Mon 6 Jul reopen carries two fresh negatives that tighten the durability cap: Iran's toll dispute hardens (its ambassador to China says Iran 'will definitely charge service fees' for Strait transit, reframed as security/environmental fees with 'special treatment' for friendly nations), and IRGC VHF warnings plus patrol craft pushed ~6 vessels to divert or reverse in the US-backed southern corridor on both 4 and 5 Jul. Diplomacy is paused for Khamenei's 4-9 Jul state funeral. Brent firms to $72.10, gold ~$4,190; the dark sweep holds a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm.

• Greece News Run2026-07-05

  Greece News Run — 5 Jul 2026

  A weekend political refresh, read with our own view — not the papers'. Markets carry Friday's record (General Index +1.27% to 2,537, a 17-year high); the fuller Metron wave has ND ~30.4 (~120 seats), ELAS 17.1, PASOK 11.4 and SYRIZA collapsed to 1.4%. We reject the opposition's 'no polling dividend / isolated ND' line as its wish-cum-fear: sustained economic success is a latent, compounding ND asset (To Vima's own table has Mitsotakis leading most-suitable-PM 29 vs Tsipras 15), with cost-of-living the near-term cap and the autumn TIF the conversion lever. A Thessaloniki terror attack resets the agenda to security — a frame that favours ND and the right.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-04

  Delphic QuickTakes — 4 Jul 2026

  The Independence Day synthesis. US cash was shut, but the 3 Jul futures firmed — S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq 100 +1.17% (tech bounced), gold to a fresh $4,187. The cash that traded confirmed it: Europe to fresh highs, Athens to another record (2,537) led by Aktor/OTE/Avax at 5-year highs. The weekend's live variable is in Tehran, where the state funeral for the assassinated Supreme Leader (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha Hormuz talks.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-04

  Global Market Commentary — 4 Jul 2026

  A holiday tape with a signal. US cash was shut for Independence Day, but the futures that traded 3 Jul firmed — S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq 100 +1.17% (the semis/tech crack bounced), gold to a fresh $4,187, Brent $72.13. Europe (fresh highs) and Athens (another record, 2,537, +1.27%, led by Aktor/OTE/Avax at 5-year highs) confirmed it. The front end held the September-hike-priced-out level. The weekend wildcard: Iran's Khamenei state funeral (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha Hormuz talks.

• Greece News Run2026-07-04

  Greece News Run — 4 Jul 2026

  Athens made it four up-sessions and a fresh record — 2,537 (+1.27%), the highest since 2009 — while Wall Street sat out the July-4 holiday and Iran buried its Supreme Leader. Europe firmed alongside; the soft US jobs print keeps the Fed-hike tail off, capping the GGB back-up (~3.61%) and helping the banks into H1 results. The weekend risk is geopolitical: Khamenei's state funeral (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha Hormuz talks.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-04

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Jul 2026

  Brent implies the Strait of Hormuz is 87% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 4 Jul is a holiday read (US cash shut for Independence Day). The Doha round concluded with 'positive progress' on Hormuz maritime traffic and frozen funds, but is now paused for the multi-day state funeral of the assassinated Supreme Leader Khamenei (4-9 Jul); Iran issued a fresh Strait vessel-routing warning and the toll dispute stays unresolved. Brent parked low-$70s ($71.52), gold ~$4,139; the dark sweep holds a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm.

• Delphic QuickTakes2026-07-03

  Delphic QuickTakes — 3 Jul 2026

  The morning-after cross-desk synthesis. June payrolls came soft (+57k vs ~115k, -74k revisions) and the melt-up BOUGHT it: the 2Y fell, a September hike came off the table, and the Dow and S&P closed at records while gold ripped to $4,139. The Delphic Regime Radar's resilient tightening inflects into a rate-relief bid — with one crack: semis -4.5% a second day. Athens broke 2,500 to a 17-year high; a fresh Metron poll lands.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-03

  Global Market Commentary — 3 Jul 2026

  The jobs test breaks soft — and the tape takes it as relief. June payrolls printed just +57k (vs ~115k expected) with April/May revised down a combined 74k; because the miss quiets the Fed-hike debate, the 2Y fell to 4.137%, the Dow and S&P closed at records and gold surged +2.2% to $4,139. The one crack: semiconductors fell a second day (-4.5%), dragging the Nasdaq 100 -1.6%. The regime inflects from resilient tightening to a rate-relief bid.

• Greece News Run2026-07-03

  Greece News Run — 3 Jul 2026

  Athens ran through 2,500 to a fresh 17-year high (General Index +0.97% to 2,505.37; banking index +0.78% to 2,824.4), a third straight up-session that shrugged off the global semis wobble. Then the swing factor landed dovish: US June payrolls printed just +57k (vs ~115k), pulling the Fed-hike tail off and handing Greek duration a tailwind (GGB ~3.59%). GEK TERNA signed the VOAK (Crete) concession stake transfer.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-03

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 3 Jul 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 87% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 3 Jul is a quiet, price-led follow-through: the Doha technical track carries (working groups on mine-clearance; still no high-level meeting), the IAEA dispute unresolved. Brent steadies at $71.52 (+0.9%) with the glut still capping the tape; gold extends its surge to ~$4,139. The dark sweep holds a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm — the freshest granular print (1 Jul) just 4 fully AIS-off of 43 transits (~9%), with Kpler flagging >20M bbl waiting to sail.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-02

  Global Market Commentary — 2 Jul 2026

  The melt-up pauses into the jobs test — oil rolls over, gold surges. The S&P eased -0.21% off its record and the Nasdaq gave back -1.5% as the quarter-end chip leaders unwound; the tape de-risked ahead of June payrolls. Brent dropped -3% to $70.92 on the glut, gold surged +1.8% to ~$4,049, the 10Y held firm at ~4.48%. ADP already printed soft (98k).

• Greece News Run2026-07-02

  Greece News Run — 2 Jul 2026

  Athens recovered: the General Index climbed back toward 2,500, and GEK TERNA's surprise €659.3m raise was absorbed without dragging the tape. The global record melt-up paused with US yields still firm (10Y ~4.48%) into today's June jobs print; Brent dropped to $70.92 (-3%) as the oil glut reasserted — a disinflationary tailwind for Greek importers.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-02

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 2 Jul 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 88% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — and 2 Jul carries a modest constructive tilt on process: indirect/technical US-Iran talks are underway in Doha (working groups formed, mine-clearance first), though no high-level meetings yet. Brent drops to $70.92 as the glut reasserts; the dark sweep still frames a ~55% all-traffic shadow norm.

• Global Market Commentary2026-07-01

  Global Market Commentary — 1 Jul 2026

  A quarter-end melt-up: records into the H1 mark, but yields rose with it. The S&P closed +1.2% at a record 7,499, the Nasdaq 100 +2.37%, and the Dow logged a second straight record on a chip-led bid — sealing the best quarter since 2020. The tell was underneath: yields rose with the rally (10Y +9bp to 4.46%), both discounting the same stronger-growth outlook. June jobs (Thu) is the test.

• Greece News Run2026-07-01

  Greece News Run — 1 Jul 2026

  Athens lagged the global quarter-end melt-up: the General Index eased into the H1 close on bank pressure, but still booked a ~16% first half. GEK TERNA cleared a surprise €659.3m accelerated bookbuild overnight — the latest in a €5.5bn+ six-week wave of Greek equity issuance funding a domestic capex supercycle. US yields rose with Wall Street's records — a hawkish undertone Greek duration will feel.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-07-01

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 1 Jul 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 82% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — but 1 Jul is a diplomacy stall: Iran says the technical group is not meeting in Doha this week, and hardliners now demand nuclear deterrence as a precondition on top of Araghchi's 30-day 'total oversight'. Brent bounces to $73.13 on the stall; the gate re-based onto the ~55% all-traffic dark share now fails on both legs (barrels and opacity).

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-30

  Global Market Commentary — 30 Jun 2026

  The bounce arrived: AI relief + a restructuring bid reclaimed the 50-DMA into the H1 mark. After a five-session Nasdaq slide, mega-cap AI caught a broad relief bid (Nasdaq 100 +1.57%), carrying the S&P +0.76% to 7,410, back above its ~7,363 50-DMA — but partly on a ~$165bn quarter-end rebalance. Comcast +23% on an NBCU/Sky spin-off seeded a value-unlock trade; the reclaim is real but not yet confirmed.

• Greece News Run2026-06-30

  Greece News Run — 30 Jun 2026

  Athens rebounded with the global relief bounce, banks leading the bid off four down sessions as the index pushed back toward 2,470 into today's H1 close — but ADMIE took profit, falling 3.7% after its record run. NBG +2.6%, Piraeus +2.1%, Motor Oil +3.3%; the five-day Nasdaq slide snapped on a mega-cap AI relief rally. The rotation paused, not reversed, into quarter-end.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-30

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 30 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 83% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — and 30 Jun is the day diplomacy and the terms harden together: US-Iran technical talks convene in Doha, but Iran's FM Araghchi asserts Tehran's 'total oversight' of the Strait for 30 days and warns unilateral arrangements will delay reopening. Brent $72.63 (lowest since late-Feb); the dark sweep confirms a 50-80% shadow norm.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-29

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 29 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 78% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — but the reverser vector is live again: Trump alleges a ceasefire violation (drones over the Strait), a cargo ship was hit near Oman, and Iran's FM warns interference will delay the reopening, even as US-Iran talks move to Doha. Barrels stay contested (~5.1 mb/d tracker vs wire ~75%) and the shadow read carries (50-65% of all traffic dark).

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-27

  Global Market Commentary — 27 Jun 2026

  Week wrap: the AI unwind reasserts — rotation, not the Micron relief, was the signal. The Nasdaq logged a fifth straight losing session on data-centre-cost worries and a reported OpenAI IPO delay, yet the S&P held essentially flat (−2% on the week, just under its 50-DMA) as money rotated into defensives, value and cyclicals. Brent held $74.44; yields eased despite the hot 3.4% core PCE.

• Greece News Run2026-06-27

  Greece News Run — 27 Jun 2026

  The oil-disinflation trade kept winning the Greek tape into the Friday close and the H1 mark: ADMIE ripped +6.3% to lead the duration block, refiners caught the crude-crack bid, while banks softened after Alpha's AGM. Brent held $74.44; the global AI rotation into value/defensives suits the Greek mix into Tuesday's H1 close.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-27

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 78% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — but the near-term premium discharge paused: Brent held ~$74.44 (-20.6% 1m) while the curve steepened back to +$3.97 backwardation on a deeper 2026 glut, and a fresh Kpler read flags 94% of transits routing outside the IMO lane — a shadow normalisation, not a clean one. The gaps to Phase 5: barrels ~5.1 mb/d and a clean IAEA inspector entry.

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-26

  Global Market Commentary — 26 Jun 2026

  Hot PCE met by an oil crash — the market held. Core PCE (May) ran hot on the headline (3.4% y/y) but the monthly core was in-line; Treasury yields slipped and the S&P finished flat on its 50-DMA. The reason a 3.4% print did not bite: Brent crashed 4.8% to $72.86, its curve flipping into contango for the first time since the war — a powerful disinflationary offset.

• Greece News Run2026-06-26

  Greece News Run — 26 Jun 2026

  The oil crash rewires the Greek tape: with Brent down a 4th straight day to $72.86 and the curve flipping into contango, refiners and airlines catch the bid while banks fade a third day into today's Alpha AGM. Motor Oil +2.1%, HELLENiQ +0.9%, Aegean +1.7%; EUROB/ETE −2.4%. The deflating Hormuz premium is the disinflationary offset under Greek duration.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-26

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 26 Jun 2026

  Brent now implies the Strait of Hormuz is 78% open. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — the prompt spread flips to bearish contango for the first time since the war as crude near a pre-war low ($72.86, -22.7% 1m); Saudi tankers restart Gulf exports and Jun 24 ran 62 transits, just 5 dark (~8%). The holdbacks: barrels still ~5.1 mb/d and the IAEA inspector-access dispute that caps durability.

• Global Market Commentary2026-06-25

  Global Market Commentary — 25 Jun 2026

  Stabilised — and Micron resets the AI trade. The de-risking stabilised, then the catalyst that caused it was refuted: after the bell Micron printed a record fiscal-Q3 ($41.5bn revenue, $50bn FQ4 guide, ~86% gross margin). Core PCE (May), due 8:30 ET today, is the last gate on the rebound.

• Greece News Run2026-06-25

  Greece News Run — 25 Jun 2026

  A second, milder down day for the Greek tape — and the global cloud that caused it is lifting: the AI-doubt selloff stabilised, the US held its 50-DMA, and Micron's record print overnight refutes the AI-returns fear. Piraeus Port (PPA) +7.3% the standout; METLEN ex-div today, Alpha AGM tomorrow; sub-$77 Brent keeps the disinflation tailwind under the duration block.

• Strait of Hormuz Monitor2026-06-25

  Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 25 Jun 2026

  Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — transparency improves (Jun 23: 25 transits, 3 dark ~12%) and ~35M bbl of backlog clears, while Brent extends to $72.86 (-22.7% 1m, a pre-war low). But the key positive watch item flips negative: IAEA inspector access is now an open US-Iran dispute, re-arming verification/snapback risk inside the 60-day window.