Week Wrap — Overnight & Global
The week's signal was not Micron — it was the rotation. After Wednesday's record memory print briefly lifted semis, the Nasdaq resumed falling, logging its fifth straight losing session Friday (Composite −4.6% on the week) as investors fled mega-cap AI over mounting data-centre-cost worries and a New York Times report that OpenAI may delay its IPO into next year, with Apple also a drag (CNBC/TheStreet, 26 Jun). Yet the broad market held: the S&P finished essentially flat at 7,354 — slipping just below its 50-DMA (~7,363) — for a −2% week, while the Dow rose 0.6% on the week as money rotated into defensives, value and cyclicals. The bond market stayed calm despite the hot 3.4% core PCE — the 10Y eased to 4.39% and the 10Y real to 2.16% — helped by Brent holding $74.44 (its forward curve steepening to a +$3.97 backwardation on a deepening 2026 glut). This is a leadership rotation, not a market collapse: the index is intact, the composition is changing.
Session Read
United States — the anchor. A textbook rotation week. The S&P held — flat Friday at 7,354, −2% on the week, slipping just under its 50-DMA — while the Nasdaq bled a fifth straight session (−4.6% wk) and the Dow gained 0.6%, money moving out of the crowded AI complex into defensives, value and small-caps. The proximate Friday catalysts were AI-data-centre-cost anxiety and the NYT's OpenAI IPO-delay report; chip stocks led the decline. Micron's record print, only two sessions old, was already a footnote — the market is re-pricing the breadth of AI leadership, not the existence of AI demand.
Europe. Euro Stoxx 50 −0.7% and the tech sub-index soft on the US read-through; the ECB's 2.25% deposit rate (first hike since 2023) anchors EUR/USD at 1.136 and the Bund near 2.9%. The defence complex stayed weak after Rheinmetall's F126 shock — the peace-dividend unwind compounding the AI de-risking — while value and bank names cushioned the index, the same rotation playing out as in the US.
Asia / EM. MSCI EM −2.8% took the dollar-and-AI-beta on the week; the Nikkei whipsawed around the BoJ's 1.00% stance. The crude slide (Brent $74.44) is a clean relief for the energy-importer bloc even as the tech-heavy EM indices wear the AI-unwind beta. USD/CNH held near 6.80.
Greece — the franchise. The rotation suits the Greek mix. With mega-cap AI out of favour and value / yield / duration in, the ATHEX's tilt is a relative winner: ADMIE +6.3% led Friday (+62.8% YTD) on the discount-rate / disinflation bid into Tuesday's H1 close, with refiners bid on the crude-crack tailwind (HELLENiQ +3.2%). Banks softened after Alpha's AGM cleared its €519m payout + €259m buyback (Alpha −1.7%, sell-the-news). The deflating Brent premium pulls Greek real rates and the GGB lower — a tailwind for the long-duration infra block into the H1 mark.
Theme of the Week — Rotation, not rupture
The week's lesson was that a record earnings print does not end a positioning cycle. Micron's blowout lifted semis for a session, but by Friday the Nasdaq had fallen for a fifth straight day, −4.6% on the week, as the market re-priced the cost side of the AI build — hyperscaler data-centre spend against a higher-for-longer Fed — and the NYT's report that OpenAI may delay its IPO crystallised the de-rating in the most crowded names. What makes this a rotation rather than a rupture is what did not break: the S&P held (−2% on the week, just under its 50-DMA), the Dow rose, the VIX sat at 18, yields eased, and value, defensives and cyclicals absorbed the flow leaving tech. The disinflation tailwind helped — Brent at $74.44 with a glut-steepened forward curve, the 10Y real down to 2.16% — capping the rate side of the scare. The tape is re-pricing the breadth of AI leadership, not the demand; the index test is at the 50-DMA, not the 200.
The Call
The week clarified the regime more than any single session did: this is a leadership rotation inside an intact uptrend, not the start of a bear. The Nasdaq's five-day slide and the S&P's quiet −2% hold are two readings of the same move — capital leaving the most crowded AI names for value, defensives, cyclicals and duration, with the VIX calm at 18 and yields easing despite a hot core PCE because the oil collapse is doing the Fed's disinflation work. The Markets Radar's down-path signpost stayed armed without tripping, and its long-running call — rotation, not collapse; breadth broadening as mega-cap leadership narrows — is now the dominant read. The one live tactical question is the 50-DMA at ~7,363, which the S&P slipped just under into quarter-end. Reclaim it and the rotation is the healthy kind that extends a bull cycle only halfway through its median life; lose it cleanly, with the signposts armed, and the trend test becomes the trade. Respect the regime, watch the 50-DMA and the oil tail, and treat the AI unwind as a repricing of breadth rather than of demand.
