Overnight & Global
Wall Street melted up into the quarter-end mark. The S&P 500 rose +1.2% to a record 7,499, the Nasdaq 100 +2.37% to 30,276, and the Dow added ~136 to 52,319 — a second straight record close (TheStreet / CNBC, 30 Jun). The engine was a chip rebound as investors looked past stretched AI valuations — Nvidia +2.6%, AMD +7.7%, Intel +6% — capping an otherwise uninspired month for Big Tech. It sealed the best quarter since 2020: in Q2 the S&P rose ~14%, the Nasdaq ~20% and the Dow ~12%; on the half, the Nasdaq is +12.8% and the S&P +9.6% YTD. The tell was underneath: yields ROSE with the rally — the 2Y +7bp to 4.17%, the 10Y +9bp to 4.46%, and MOVE +3.8 to 72 — even as VIX fell to 16.5. That is not equities fighting the bond market: both were discounting the same stronger-growth outlook — yields up on growth, not just the Fed. The risk to that read is a yield rise led by inflation rather than growth; Thursday's June jobs is the test. Brent firmed to $73.13 as the Doha channel stalled; gold edged up 0.4% to $3,976.
Session Read
United States — the anchor. A quarter-end melt-up that put records on the board. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at highs and the Dow logged a second straight record as semis led — Nvidia +2.6%, AMD +7.7%, Intel +6% — investors looking past the stretched-AI-valuation worry that had capped Big Tech all month. It capped the strongest quarter since 2020. The session's signature was the bond tape: Treasuries SOLD into the risk-on, the 10Y backing up 9bp to 4.46% and the 2Y to 4.17%, with MOVE rising even as VIX fell. Read that as strong growth being discounted — equities and yields rising together as the economy carries a higher discount rate, not equities defying bonds. The June jobs print (Thu, released early) is the discriminator: strong-with-benign-wages confirms the growth read; hot wages on soft growth tips it toward stagflation — that, not the yield level itself, is the risk.
Europe. A firm session — Euro Stoxx 50 +1.55%, DAX +1.50% — riding the global risk-on into the half-year mark. The Sintra ECB Forum wrapped (29 Jun-1 Jul); the Lagarde-Warsh-Bailey-Macklem panel was the set-piece, with the read still that the Fed under Warsh skews hawkish while the ECB holds. Peripheral spreads were quiet (BTP 10Y 3.63%, +5bp with the global back-up; the BTP-Bund gap steady), and the euro held 1.141.
Asia / EM. The Nikkei extended its record run (70,455, +0.5% on 1 Jul) on the BoJ's hike-toward-1.75% signal and AI demand; MSCI EM firmed +0.9% as the softer-dollar / risk-on impulse carried, the PBoC holding its easing posture. The AI-and-hawkish-BoJ combination keeps Japan the funded long even as the yen slips to 162.7.
Greece — the franchise. Athens LAGGED the global melt-up. The General Index eased -0.31% to 2,459.77 on a defensive, bank-pressured close (intraday high 2,479.78), booking H1 +16% (June +3.67%) on record flows and turnover near €294m — a profit-taking pause at the half-year mark, not a reversal, with the tape eyeing 2,500. The primary market did the talking overnight: GEK TERNA priced a surprise €659.3m accelerated bookbuild — upsized from €500m, ~6x covered in ~45 minutes at a tight 3.4% discount (€42.50 vs the €44.00 close). It is the latest in a wave — PPC €4.25bn, ADMIE Holding €530m, ElvalHalcor €250m, now GEK TERNA — well over €5.5bn of Greek equity issued in six weeks, taken down by international institutions to fund a domestic capex supercycle. That is a capital-formation cycle, not just a secondary re-rating: the investment leg of the Greek growth story.
Theme of the Day — Resilient tightening, confirmed
The half closed on a melt-up that looked unambiguously strong — records on the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow, a chip-led bid that shrugged off the month's AI-valuation anxiety, the best quarter since 2020 — and, one layer down, yields ROSE with it (10Y +9bp to 4.46%, MOVE firmer even as VIX was crushed to 16.5). The tempting read is that equities defied the bond market; the better one is that both priced the SAME thing — a stronger-growth outlook. In a resilient-tightening regime, equities and yields rise together: the economy is strong enough to carry a higher discount rate, so the back-up confirms the growth the multiple is capitalising rather than contradicting it — a read consistent with the Delphic Regime Radar's regime call. The single thing that would break it is a yield rise driven by sticky INFLATION rather than growth, and Thursday's early June jobs print is the discriminator: strong payrolls with benign wages confirm the growth read; hot wages on soft growth are the risk. Into H2 the level is a record, the internals improved (small-caps kept pace), and the read holds until the data says otherwise.
The Call
Take the record. The half closed on a genuine melt-up — records on the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow, a chip-led bid that finally looked past the AI-valuation worry, the strongest quarter since 2020 — with internals better than the prior week's narrow bounce (small-caps kept pace). Yields rose with it (10Y 4.46%, +9bp), and the read is resilient tightening: equities and rates discounting the same stronger-growth outlook, not a fight the bond market is winning. A strong economy carrying a higher discount rate is a bull-market signature, not a warning. The one testable caveat is a yield rise led by INFLATION rather than growth — Thursday's early June jobs print is the discriminator: strong-with-benign-wages keeps the growth read (stay long); hot wages on soft growth is the risk. Trade H2 long-but-alert to that one data point; the oil tail (a stalled Doha, a firmer Brent) is the other macro swing, on the disinflation offset that carried the tape all half.
