The Read
A second, milder down day for the Greek tape — and the global cloud that caused it is lifting: the AI-doubt selloff stabilised, the US held its 50-DMA, and Micron's record print overnight refutes the "AI returns disappoint" fear. Wednesday 24 Jun extended Tuesday's pullback at a slower pace: banks off 0.5–1.7% into AGM week (ALPHA −1.4%, EUROB −1.3%, TPEIR −1.0%, ETE −0.5%), GEK TERNA −0.5%, HELLENiQ −0.3%, while the infra block steadied (ADMIE, Cenergy, PPC flat) and defensives bid (OTE +1.1%). The day's standout single name was Piraeus Port (PPA) +7.3% to €42.00 — bid into its 30 Jun AGM and a 4.85% dividend (€1.896, ex 3 Aug) on FY25 record revenue. Globally the picture turned: the S&P closed −0.1% at 7,358 (24 Jun) holding its 50-DMA, the VIX eased to 18.6, and after the bell Micron printed a record FQ3 ($41.5bn revenue, $50bn FQ4 guide, DRAM spot +52% YTD) — the cleanest rebuttal yet to the AI-capex-doubt narrative. METLEN ex-div €1.00 today; Alpha AGM tomorrow. Brent $76.53 sub-$77 keeps the discount-rate / disinflation tailwind under the duration block.
Synthesis
Three threads through the Thursday tape. (i) The Greek pullback was imported beta, and the import is reversing. Tuesday–Wednesday's fade tracked a global high-beta / AI de-risking, not a Greece-specific event; with the US stabilising (S&P −0.1%, 50-DMA held) and Micron's record FQ3 refuting the AI-returns fear, the risk tone is turning back up — supportive for the highest-YTD Greek names that bore the beta (Cenergy +56.9%, GEK TERNA +79.7%, ADMIE +51.5%). The structural driver — sub-$77 Brent (WTI $72.68) compressing the cost of capital for long-duration Greek balance sheets — is intact. (ii) Banks into delivery, the fade is positioning. ALPHA/EUROB/TPEIR off 1.0–1.4% ahead of Friday's Alpha AGM (€519m FY25 payout, €259m buyback authorisation); Eurobank repurchases continuing, NBG Phase 1 buyback in flight, Crediabank absorbs Pankritia 30 Jun. The ~15% sector discount to wider European banks holds; the two-day fade is pre-AGM de-risking, not a re-rating. METLEN's €600m buyback (dual-venue Citi/LSE + Piraeus Securities/Athens) keeps the infra-side capital-return bid alive; the stock goes ex-div €1.00 today. (iii) Iran Phase-2 remains the swing variable, now disinflationary on the margin. The 60-day US Treasury oil waiver + Hormuz physical reopening keep Brent capped and the war premium deflated — duration-supportive — but the enrichment red line is the unresolved tail. What changes the picture: a hot US Core PCE today validates the hike scare and pushes real yields up (de-rates the duration block); an enrichment-talks collapse gaps Brent +$5–8, hitting the refining and infra legs at once.