The Read
Athens RECOVERED: the General Index climbed back toward 2,500, and GEK TERNA's surprise €659.3m raise was absorbed without dragging the tape. Wednesday 1 Jul: the General Index closed +0.88% at 2,481.33, reclaiming most of the 30 Jun dip and eyeing 2,500 again — a firm H2 open that shrugged off the GEK TERNA equity supply (its €659.3m ABB had priced overnight at €42.50). The half's leaders still anchor the tape: GEK TERNA (+77.7% YTD before the placement), ADMIE (~+57%), Cenergy (+54.7%). Globally the record melt-up PAUSED — Wall Street eased (S&P -0.21% to 7,483, Nasdaq -1.5% as tech gave back) with US yields still firm (10Y ~4.48%) into the June jobs print (Thu 2 Jul, 8:30 ET, a day early), and Brent DROPPED to $70.92 (-3%) as the oil glut reasserted — a disinflationary tailwind for Greek importers. The political calendar stays centre-stage into the pre-TIF quiet.
Synthesis
Three threads into the H2 open. (i) The secondary tape paused; the PRIMARY market is roaring — a capital-formation cycle. Athens RECLAIMED ground (+0.88% to 2,481.33 on 1 Jul, eyeing 2,500) and — the tell — absorbed GEK TERNA's €659.3m equity supply without a wobble. That is the loud half of the story: issuance. GEK TERNA cleared a surprise €659.3m ABB overnight — upsized from €500m, ~6x covered in ~45 minutes at a tight 3.4% discount (€42.50 vs €44.00) — and it is only the latest. In six weeks Greek corporates have raised or launched well over €5.5bn of fresh equity: PPC €4.25bn (a record ~€17bn book, the largest ever for a listed Greek name), ADMIE Holding €530m, ElvalHalcor ~€250m, now GEK TERNA, alongside AKTOR's M&A-led expansion and the Viohalco/Cenergy capex. The message is bigger than any one name: post-investment-grade Greece is funding a domestic capex supercycle — grids, generation, concessions, reshored industry, data centres — in the primary market, at tight terms, taken down by international institutions. That is capital being FORMED, not just re-rated: the investment leg of the growth story, crowding IN real capex and deepening the ATHEX from the inside. The ~15% bank discount to EU peers still holds into the 29-31 Jul results. (ii) Today's swing factor is the US jobs print. The record melt-up paused with the US 10Y still firm (~4.48%); June payrolls land a day early (Thu 2 Jul, 8:30 ET) after a soft ADP (98k) — a hot number revives higher-for-longer and pressures Greek duration / the GGB (~3.57%) and the rate-sensitive infra leaders (ADMIE, GEK TERNA); a soft one caps the back-up. The offset is oil: Brent DROPPED to $70.92 (-3%) as the glut reasserted — a disinflationary tail that helps Greek importers, airlines and the CPI even as it trims refiner cracks. (iii) Politics idles into the pre-TIF quiet. The freshest estimate is MARC (30 Jun): ND 30.5 / ELAS 16.5 / PASOK 10.5; no new print since, with the August polling blackout nearing — the Samaras voter-pool question and a coordinating non-ELAS left are the live variables into the September TIF. What changes the picture: a hot June payrolls revives higher-for-longer and pressures the GGB; a confirmed Hormuz re-escalation re-bids crude and inverts the disinflation tail.