The Read
Athens ran THROUGH 2,500 to a 17-year high — and then the soft US jobs print handed Greek duration a tailwind. Thursday 2 Jul: the General Index closed +0.97% at 2,505.37, a fresh yearly and 17-year peak on €303.5m turnover, a third straight up-session with the banking index +0.78% to 2,824.4 — the tape shrugging off the global semiconductor wobble entirely. The half's leaders still anchor it: GEK TERNA, ADMIE (~+57% YTD), Cenergy. Then the swing factor landed dovish: US June payrolls printed just +57k (vs ~115k consensus, with April/May revised down a combined 74k) — a clear labour cooling that QUIETS the Fed-hike debate (the US 2Y fell to 4.137%, a September hike priced out), capping any GGB back-up (~3.59%) and helping the rate-sensitive infra leaders and banks into the 29-31 Jul results. GEK TERNA signed the transfer of stakes in the VOAK (Crete) motorway concession — recycling the axis to Aktor Concessions and Metlen while keeping the largest share. Brent ticked up +0.9% to $71.52, only marginally trimming the disinflation tail. The political calendar stays quiet into the pre-TIF recess.
Synthesis
Three threads into the long-weekend. (i) The index broke 2,500 and the capital-formation cycle rolls on. Athens closed +0.97% at 2,505.37 on 2 Jul — a fresh 17-year high, a third up-session (banking index +0.78% to 2,824.4) that ignored the US semis pause. The primary market is still the loud half of the story: in six weeks Greek corporates have raised or launched well over €5.5bn of fresh equity — PPC €4.25bn (a record ~€17bn book), ADMIE Holding €530m, ElvalHalcor ~€250m, and last week GEK TERNA's €659.3m ABB (absorbed without index drag) — post-investment-grade Greece funding a domestic capex supercycle in the primary market, at tight terms, taken down by international institutions. This week's tell is capital RECYCLING at the top of that cycle: GEK TERNA signed the transfer of equity stakes in the VOAK (Chania-Heraklion) Crete motorway concession — the new structure GEK TERNA 40%, Aktor Concessions 24%, Metlen 24%, Aktor Concessions & PPP 12% — syndicating concession capital to co-investors while retaining the largest participation, freeing balance sheet for the BOAK €2bn axis and the wider PPP pipeline. The ~15% bank discount to EU peers still holds into the 29-31 Jul results. (ii) The US jobs print landed dovish — a tailwind, not a threat. The prior read had flagged a hot payrolls number as the risk to Greek duration; instead June came SOFT (+57k vs ~115k, Apr/May revised -74k), which QUIETS the rate-hike debate (the US 2Y fell ~2bp to 4.137%, a September Fed hike priced out) — that caps any GGB back-up (~3.59%) and supports the rate-sensitive infra leaders (ADMIE, GEK TERNA) and the banks into H1 results. The offset is oil: Brent ticked UP +0.9% to $71.52 — still low-$70s, so the disinflation tail for importers, airlines and the CPI is only marginally trimmed. (iii) Politics — a fresh Metron print lands. The freshest estimate is now Metron Analysis (2 Jul, for MEGA): ND 30.4 / ELAS 17.1 / PASOK 11.4 — ND consolidating (+2 vs May), Tsipras's ELAS solidifying second (a 13.3-pt gap) and PASOK reclaiming third off Elpida's fade, even as a strong 'demand for political change' registers (67% wrong-track, inflation the top concern at 50%, Androulakis's negatives >80%). The August polling blackout nears — the Samaras voter-pool question and a coordinating non-ELAS left are the live variables into the September TIF. What changes the picture: a genuine US growth scare (if +57k proves the first read of a slowdown rather than an air-pocket) would test risk appetite; a confirmed Hormuz re-escalation re-bids crude and inverts the disinflation tail.