The Read
Athens made it FOUR up-sessions and a fresh record — 2,537 — led by Aktor, OTE and Avax at 5-year highs, while Wall Street's cash sat out the July-4 holiday. Friday 3 Jul: the General Index closed +1.27% at 2,537.23, a new yearly and ~17-year high (highest since 2009; weekly +3.59%, YTD +19.64%) on broad breadth (70 advancers / 43 decliners). The move was led by AKTOR +4.66%, OTE +4.33% and AVAX +4.30% — all 5-year highs — with the Banking Index +1.35% to 2,862.5 (Eurobank +2.36%) and Cenergy +3.77%; Coca-Cola HBC pushed to record ground on energy-drinks momentum. Europe firmed alongside (Euro Stoxx +0.82%, DAX +0.78%). The macro backdrop stays supportive — the soft US June payrolls (+57k vs ~115k, Apr/May revised -74k) QUIETED the Fed-hike debate (US 2Y ~4.14%, a September hike priced out), capping the GGB back-up (~3.61%) and helping the rate-sensitive infra leaders and banks into the 29-31 Jul results. US cash markets were shut Fri 3 Jul (Independence Day), so there is no new Wall Street tape. The weekend's live risk is geopolitical: Iran's multi-day state funeral for the assassinated Supreme Leader Khamenei (4-9 Jul) has paused the Doha US-Iran Hormuz talks, with Brent parked low-$70s ($71.52) — a disinflation tail that would invert only on a Strait re-escalation. The political calendar stays quiet into the pre-TIF recess.
Synthesis
Three threads into the long-weekend. (i) A fourth record close on broad breadth — and the capital-formation cycle rolls on. Athens closed +1.27% at 2,537.23 on 3 Jul — a fresh ~17-year high, a fourth straight up-session led by Aktor +4.66%, OTE +4.33% and Avax +4.30% (all 5-year highs), the Banking Index +1.35% to 2,862.5 (Eurobank +2.36%), and Cenergy +3.77% — a sector re-rating across construction/concessions and banks, with Coca-Cola HBC to record ground on energy-drinks momentum. The primary market is still the loud half of the story: in six weeks Greek corporates have raised or launched well over €5.5bn of fresh equity — PPC €4.25bn (a record ~€17bn book), ADMIE Holding €530m, ElvalHalcor ~€250m, and last week GEK TERNA's €659.3m ABB — post-investment-grade Greece funding a domestic capex supercycle in the primary market, at tight terms, taken down by international institutions. The tell remains capital RECYCLING at the top of the cycle: GEK TERNA's transfer of stakes in the VOAK (Crete) motorway concession (GEK TERNA 40%, Aktor Concessions 24%, Metlen 24%, Aktor Concessions & PPP 12%), freeing balance sheet for the BOAK €2bn axis. The ~15% bank discount to EU peers still holds into the 29-31 Jul results. (ii) The US jobs print landed dovish — a tailwind, not a threat. June came SOFT (+57k vs ~115k, Apr/May revised -74k), which QUIETS the rate-hike debate (the US 2Y ~4.14%, a September Fed hike priced out) — capping any GGB back-up (~3.61%) and supporting the rate-sensitive infra leaders (ADMIE, GEK TERNA) and the banks into H1 results. Brent's low-$70s handle ($71.52) keeps a disinflation tail for importers, airlines and the CPI — but the weekend's Iran funeral, pausing the Doha Hormuz talks, is the reminder that a Strait re-escalation would invert it. (iii) Politics — the Metron print still stands. No new poll over the holiday weekend, so the freshest estimate remains Metron Analysis (2 Jul, for MEGA): ND 30.4 / ELAS 17.1 / PASOK 11.4 — ND consolidating (+2 vs May), Tsipras's ELAS solidifying second (a 13.3-pt gap) and PASOK reclaiming third off Elpida's fade, even as a strong 'demand for political change' registers (67% wrong-track, inflation the top concern at 50%). The August polling blackout nears — the Samaras voter-pool question and a coordinating non-ELAS left are the live variables into the September TIF. What changes the picture: a genuine US growth scare on the 6 Jul reopen (if +57k proves the first read of a slowdown), or a confirmed Hormuz re-escalation during the funeral pause that re-bids crude and inverts the disinflation tail.