The Read
The read (Thursday 6 Aug): Athens holds its 17-year high but consolidates beneath it — METLEN reported H1 TODAY a clean BEAT, the season's last big leg, while the banks take profit and the GLOBAL tape turns risk-off. On the latest close (5 Aug) the General Index held near 2,623 (its highest since 2009), but the banking index eased ~1.2% — profit-taking after the record run: National €16.17 (-1.8%), Eurobank €4.48 (-1.4%), Piraeus €10.05 (-0.5%), Alpha €4.48 (flat; Alpha Bank's cap tops €10bn). Leadership rotated to GEK Terna €46.62 (+2.6%) and Aegean €12.50 (+2.2%). The corporate season delivered: PPC reported adj. EBITDA €1.2bn, reaffirmed FY guidance (€2.4bn EBITDA / €0.7bn net) and confirmed a DPS of €0.80; Cenergy a record H1 (net €138m +45%) + a ~€1.15bn ADMIE interconnection award; Coca-Cola HBC beat and raised. METLEN reported H1 today (6 Aug) — a BEAT (EBITDA €550m +23%, net €313m +23%, leverage down to 1.7x from 3.1x); guidance REAFFIRMED, not raised (the CEO said it "could justify an upgrade" but stayed conservative). Gallium was €0 in H1 (first output H2 2027) — the ~€100-150m EBITDA figure is a broker 2028 estimate, not a company number. The GLOBAL backdrop turned risk-off: the Iran deal STALLED unsigned, oil and gold re-bid (Brent $79.80, +2.3%), and the US AI-cost trade de-rated — a headwind for the high-beta names, but the domestic re-rating is the anchor. Macro benign — July HICP 2.7%, PMI 54.3. Politics: Western Attica wildfire relief; polling FROZEN (August blackout). See the monitor overleaf.
Synthesis
The strategic read — the re-rating is PROVEN, and the season closes strong (PPC reaffirmed, CCH raised, Cenergy a record + a landmark award, Metlen today); the banks consolidate the win as the global tape turns risk-off.
• (i) The banks CONSOLIDATE at a 17-yr high — profit-taking, not a reversal. On the 5-Aug close the banking index eased ~1.2% (National -1.8%, Eurobank -1.4%, Piraeus -0.5%) after the record H1 (all four beat and raised: Piraeus €617m, Eurobank ~€776m, NBG €661m, Alpha ~€497m). Healthy digestion; the banks now trade their own numbers, and Alpha Bank topping €10bn market cap is the marginal re-rating tell.
• (ii) The corporate season delivered across the complex. PPC: adj. EBITDA €1.2bn, FY reaffirmed (€2.4bn EBITDA / €0.7bn net), DPS €0.80 — a 33% dividend raise. Cenergy: a record H1 (net €138m +45%, €3.9bn backlog) + a **€1.15bn ADMIE North-Aegean/Dodecanese interconnection framework**, its largest ever. Coca-Cola HBC: beat + FY organic-EBIT to 8-10%. METLEN reported today (6 Aug) a clean BEAT — EBITDA €550m (+23%), net €313m (+23%), and the standout, leverage cut to 1.7x (from 3.1x); guidance REAFFIRMED (not raised — a deliberate sandbag), and gallium contributed €0 (first output H2 2027; the €100-150m figure is a broker 2028 estimate, not a company number). The capital-formation supercycle validated name by name. €1.9bn — τεκμαρτό reform, τέλος-επιτηδεύματος abolition, advance-tax cut) is background. OPEKEPE/EPPO dormant. Polling FROZEN in the August blackout — the last clean read is Marc (20-23 Jul): ND 30.8 / ΕΛΑΣ 16.8 / PASOK 11.0. Base case unchanged: an ND-LED government.
• (iii) The global tape turned RISK-OFF — a headwind, not a franchise threat. The Iran deal STALLED unsigned (a narrow Iran-Oman channel, not the US package), so oil and gold re-bid (Brent $79.80, gold +2.3%); the US AI-cost trade de-rated (AMD -7%, Alphabet -4%, the speculative tail -14/-26%) while NVDA held on the H200 approval; a weak US ADP (+44k) eased the curve. That is a headwind for the high-beta Greek names, but the Greek banks trade their own (record) numbers; HOLD Phase 2 on Hormuz, the tail a fracture.
• (iv) Politics — WILDFIRE RELIEF, not fiscal or scandal. Mitsotakis's inter-ministerial locked the Western Attica/Boeotia package (a €600 first-need payment, 100% state funding for primary-home rebuild up to €6,000, a rent subsidy €300-500/month, a 70% business-damage grant, a 6-month debt/contribution suspension, a 1-year auction freeze); 6 Aug is roll-out. The September ΔΕΘ package (