Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 25 Jun 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• OPEN — Counts hold and clean up — Jun 23: 25 transits (12 in / 13 out), only 3 dark (~12%, vs 10 of 36 / 28% Jun 22); ~133/week sustained. The post-deal backlog is clearing fast: >=20 stranded tankers and ~35M bbl have exited Hormuz since the deal; ~21M bbl of Iranian crude left in June (CNBC/Kpler).
• PHASE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS (prev Phase 4). The opacity gate stays clear (dark ~12-28% < 45) with counts steady and pricing softer — but no Phase-5 upgrade: that needs barrels AND a clean inspector entry, neither yet in hand.
• VELOCITY — Steady-to-improving on transparency (dark 28% -> ~12% on the Jun 23 print) and backlog clearance, but FLAT on the binding constraint (barrels). Physical normalisation is now a clean-up phase, not a fresh leg up.
• ESTIMATE — VOLUME unchanged and still the caveat: JPMorgan ~5.1 mb/d (Kpler ~4.8) vs ~15 pre-war (~25-32%). Counts and transparency keep normalising faster than throughput — Phase 4 remains a flow-QUALITY confirmation, not a flow-VOLUME one.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• INSPECTORS — WATCH ITEM FLIPS NEGATIVE — IAEA's Grossi (Jun 24): inspections of the bombed enrichment sites are mandated by the MoU and WILL occur; Tehran says access comes only AFTER a final deal (NPR Jun 23-24). The HEU-verification crack moves from claimed-but-unconfirmed to an OPEN DISPUTE — verification/snapback risk re-armed inside the 60-day window.
• ENRICHMENT — Pezeshkian reaffirms the enrichment red line and no HEU transfer abroad (Tehran Times) — unchanged; the durability cap holds. Frontal clash with Trump's zero-enrichment demand persists.
• SNAPBACK — The Oct-2025 E3 snapback stays triggered/latent in the background — the stick behind the 60-day road map; a hardening IAEA standoff is the path that activates it.
• WAIVER / ROAD MAP — Carry from Jun 22 — the US Treasury 60-day oil waiver and the Switzerland road map + four working groups + the Hormuz de-confliction channel remain the scaffolding of the reopening. No reported reversal.
• CENTCOM / IRGC — Quiet — the Geneva communication line (Jun 21) is holding; no new boarding, mine re-lay or interdiction Jun 24-25. CENTCOM maintains Iran does not control the strait; the IRGC Jun-20 closure declaration stays rhetorical.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-05-15 — Dark-share peaks at 65% in Phase 2 — maximum opacity.
• 2026-06-17 — Versailles MoU signed; toll-free reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22 — Switzerland Round 1: road map + Hormuz de-confliction channel; US Treasury 60-day oil waiver issued.
• 2026-06-23/24 — 21 AIS-visible center-corridor transits (first since the war); dark-share 28%, 133/week. Gate clears -> UPGRADE to Phase 4 Normalizing flows; Brent $76.53.
• 2026-06-25 — Transparency improves (3 dark of 25, Jun 23) and ~35M bbl of backlog clears, but IAEA site access becomes an open US-Iran dispute; Brent to $72.86 (pre-war low). Phase 4 HOLDS — the positive watch item flips negative.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — Still STRENGTHENING on flow transparency and pricing (Brent at pre-war lows), but the DURABILITY vector weakens — the IAEA dispute reintroduces verification risk the prior read had as near-resolved. Flow and diplomacy now point in different directions.
• ACCELERANT — Barrels catching counts (~5 -> 8-12 mb/d) AND a clean inspector entry to the damaged sites inside the 60-day window — together, the Phase-5 Normalized path.
• REVERSER (elevated) — The IAEA access dispute hardening into a standoff, an enrichment-talks collapse, or E3 snapback escalation — any re-arms durability risk and MoU-snapback fear and pulls DOWNGRADE-RISK toward Phase 3/2.

CENTRAL TENSION — Flow/pricing-vs-verification * counts-vs-barrels

• PRICING — Brent $72.86 (-22.7% 1m), the lowest since pre-war; OPEC+ adding +188k b/d in July. The market keeps discharging the war premium — pricing the reopening as durable and the IAEA noise as not (yet) flow-relevant.
• PHYSICAL — Holds and cleans — dark ~12-28% well under the 45 gate, counts ~25/day, backlog clearing (~35M bbl out). Physical agrees with pricing on REOPENING; the lag is throughput, not transparency.
• READ — The new divergence is FLOW/PRICING (normalising) vs DIPLOMACY/VERIFICATION (re-contested). Markets and tankers say open; the IAEA standoff says the durability that underwrites the reopening is not yet secured — and snapback is the stick.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 4 holds; the backlog finishes clearing and barrels grind from ~5 toward 8-10 mb/d; the IAEA dispute stays a war of words inside the 60-day window; Brent drifts in the low-70s.
• BEAR — The IAEA standoff hardens or enrichment talks collapse; E3-snapback fear returns, dark-share rebounds above 45%, Brent snaps +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.
• BULL — Iran admits inspectors to the damaged sites + a nuclear annex lands inside the window; dark to 15-20%, flow back above 12 mb/d; Phase 5 Normalized in 3-4 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — transparency improves further (3 dark of 25 transits Jun 23) and the post-deal backlog clears fast (~35M bbl out), while Brent extends to $72.86 (-22.7% 1m, a pre-war low). But the cycle's key positive watch item flips negative: IAEA inspector access is now an open US-Iran dispute (Grossi: MoU-mandated, will occur; Tehran: only after a deal), re-arming verification/snapback risk inside the 60-day window. Volume still lags (~5.1 mb/d, ~25-32% of pre-war). Net: reopening confirmed and clearing, refill partial, durability re-contested — watch the IAEA standoff and the enrichment red line for the downgrade; barrels toward 8-12 mb/d and a clean inspector entry for Phase 5.