Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 27 Jun 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• OPEN — Counts surge and clean — Jun 24: 62 transits (21 in / 41 out), only 5 dark (~8%, vs 3 of 25 / ~12% Jun 23 and 10 of 36 / 28% Jun 22). Hormuz at its fastest wartime pace; the post-deal backlog is largely cleared — ~51M bbl exited this month (Kpler), ~21M of it Iranian — and Saudi tankers are en route to Ras Tanura to restart Gulf exports for the first time since March.
• PHASE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS (prev Phase 4). Opacity gate clear (dark ~8-10% < 45) with counts strong and the curve flattened to mild backwardation — but no Phase-5 upgrade: that needs barrels AND a clean inspector entry, neither yet in hand.
• VELOCITY — STRENGTHENING on transparency (dark 28% -> ~8%), counts (to 62/day) and pricing (flattened curve) — but FLAT on the binding constraint, barrels. The physical normalisation is now late-stage clean-up plus the Saudi restart, not opacity risk.
• ESTIMATE — VOLUME the lone caveat: JPMorgan ~5.1 / Kpler ~4.8 mb/d (~25-32% of pre-war ~15-20 mb/d), even as counts hit ~40% of the 138 baseline. Throughput is the last gap between Phase 4 and Phase 5 — flow QUALITY is essentially normalised; flow VOLUME is not.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• CURVE STEEPENS (GLUT) — Brent's curve steepened to +$3.97 backwardation (from +$2.14) — but driven by the 12-month forward falling to $70.47, the 2026 glut deepening in the back end, NOT near-term scarcity; spot held ~$74. Implied openness steady ~78%, residual premium ~$7/bbl.
• SAUDI RESTART / GLUT — Saudi tankers head to Ras Tanura to restart Persian Gulf exports (first since March); a surge of ME + West-African offers and an anticipated 2026 surplus shift attention to glut. Iraq threatens to leave OPEC unless its quota rises; OPEC+ +188k b/d in July.
• INSPECTORS — DURABILITY CAP — Carry: IAEA's Grossi says inspections of the bombed sites are MoU-mandated and WILL occur; Tehran insists access only AFTER a final deal. Pezeshkian reaffirms the enrichment red line and no HEU transfer abroad, E3 snapback latent as the stick — the HEU-verification crack stays an open US-Iran dispute, snapback risk live in the 60-day window.
• CENTCOM / IRGC — Quiet — the Geneva line holds; no new boarding, mine re-lay or interdiction. CENTCOM maintains Iran does not control the strait; the IRGC Jun-20 closure declaration stays rhetorical, now contradicted by 62-transit days.
• DARK CROSSINGS / ROUTING (Kpler Jun 26) — A fresh Kpler study reframes 'recovery': of 895 crossings (Mar 1-May 19), only 6.4% used the formal IMO lane — 53.0% ran the Iranian-defined corridor, 40.6% went fully dark (AIS-off), and the fleet skews shadow (58.7% 20+ yrs, 55.5% no IG P&I). 'When almost every vessel avoids the formal lane, deviation becomes the baseline.' The corridor's normal is a shadow normal.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-05-15 — Dark-share peaks at 65% in Phase 2 — maximum opacity.
• 2026-06-17 — Versailles MoU signed; toll-free reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22 — Switzerland Round 1: road map + Hormuz de-confliction channel; US Treasury 60-day waiver.
• 2026-06-23/24 — Center-corridor transits return (21 visible Jun 23, 62 transits / 5 dark Jun 24); gate clears -> UPGRADE to Phase 4 Normalizing flows; Brent $76.53 -> $74.44.
• 2026-06-26 — Brent curve flips to mild backwardation (premium largely out); Saudi Ras Tanura restart (first since March); glut narrative takes over. Phase 4 HOLDS — premium largely discharged, barrels and inspector access the last two gaps.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — STRENGTHENING on flow + pricing (flattened curve, Brent in the mid-70s, Saudi restart) — but the DURABILITY vector stays capped by the IAEA dispute. Flow/pricing and verification point in different directions; the corridor is open, the deal that underwrites it isn't sealed.
• ACCELERANT — Barrels catching counts (~5.1 -> 8-12 mb/d) as the Saudi/Gulf restart scales, AND a clean inspector entry to the damaged sites inside the 60-day window — together, the Phase-5 Normalized path.
• REVERSER (elevated) — The IAEA access dispute hardening, an enrichment-talks collapse, or E3-snapback escalation re-arms durability/MoU-snapback fear and pulls DOWNGRADE-RISK toward Phase 3/2 — the one path that puts a bid back under crude.

CENTRAL TENSION — Flow/pricing-vs-verification * counts-vs-barrels

• PRICING — Brent ~$74.44 (-20.6% 1m), down about a fifth on the month, the curve flattened to a mild backwardation — the war premium is largely discharged (oil model ~78% implied open, residual ~$7/bbl) and the market increasingly trades the 2026 glut. A disinflationary offset cutting against the hot core-PCE (3.4%) hike scare.
• PHYSICAL — Normalised on quality — dark ~8-10% well under the 45 gate, 62 transits Jun 24, backlog cleared, Saudi restart underway. The only lag is throughput (~5.1 mb/d, ~30% of pre-war); transparency and counts are essentially back.
• READ — The divergence is FLOW/PRICING (normalised, premium largely out) vs DIPLOMACY/VERIFICATION (re-contested). Markets and tankers say open and oversupplied; the IAEA standoff says the durability underwriting the reopening is not yet secured — snapback the stick.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 4 holds; the Saudi/Gulf restart scales and barrels grind from ~5.1 toward 8-10 mb/d; the IAEA dispute stays a war of words inside the 60-day window; Brent in the mid-70s with the curve in mild backwardation.
• BEAR — The IAEA standoff hardens or enrichment talks collapse; E3-snapback fear returns, dark-share rebounds above 45%, the curve re-backwardates and Brent snaps +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.
• BULL — Iran admits inspectors to the damaged sites + a nuclear annex lands inside the window; barrels back above 12 mb/d on the Gulf restart; dark to ~5%; Phase 5 Normalized in 3-4 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — and the price structure agrees: Brent eased to ~$74.44 (-20.6% 1m) with its term structure flattened to a mild backwardation, the oil model reading ~78% implied openness — the Strait premium is largely discharged (residual ~$7/bbl), confirmed by Saudi tankers restarting Gulf exports (first since March) and Hormuz at its fastest wartime pace (62 transits / 5 dark Jun 24). The market increasingly trades the 2026 glut. Two gaps remain between here and Phase 5 Normalized: barrels (~5.1 mb/d, Kpler ~4.8; ~25-32% of pre-war) and a clean IAEA inspector entry to the damaged sites — the latter an open US-Iran dispute that caps durability and is the one path that re-arms snapback and re-bids crude.