Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 29 Jun 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• OPEN — Counts up ~3x off the trough but PLATEAUING — Jun 27: 40 transits (24 in / 16 out), running ~35-40/day, still only ~1/4 of the 138 pre-war baseline and BELOW the Jun-24 peak of 62. A dark queue persists: ~28 tankers waiting, 27 of them dark. ~51M bbl exited this month (Kpler, ~21M Iranian); Saudi tankers restart Ras Tanura exports (first since March). Backlog clearing, but counts stall around a quarter of pre-war.
• PHASE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS (prev Phase 4). Opacity gate clear (dark ~8-10% < 45) with counts strong and the curve in backwardation — BUT the gate reads AIS-off among VISIBLE vessels; on an all-traffic basis Vortexa/Windward see 50-65% fully dark (65% May peak), which would stress the gate. No Phase-5 upgrade: that needs barrels AND a clean inspector entry.
• VELOCITY — STALLING near-term. The gauge's +25 pts/wk 'ACCELERATING' is a TRAILING 7-day slope anchored on last week's low (Jun 22 ~4% -> 29% today); on the recent run-rate visible openness has been FLAT ~3-4 days (Jun 26 36% -> Jun 27-29 ~29% on the 40-transit plateau). So the naive 'weeks-to-100%' extrapolation off the gauge OVERSTATES momentum — counts have plateaued at ~1/4 of pre-war, not marched toward full openness.
• ESTIMATE — VOLUME the lone caveat — and the range only widens: sustained trackers read ~5.1 (JPMorgan) / ~4.8 (Kpler) mb/d (~25-32% of pre-war), WHILE wires now put Gulf exports back to ~75% of pre-war and Wright claimed a ~20M-bbl 24h record. We hold the conservative tracker read; the high-side figures are wire/official, not yet corroborated. Flow QUALITY normalised; durable VOLUME still the gap between Phase 4 and 5.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• CURVE STEEPENS (GLUT) — Brent's curve steepened to +$3.97 backwardation (from +$2.14) — but driven by the 12-month forward falling to $70.47, the 2026 glut deepening in the back end, NOT near-term scarcity; spot held ~$74. Implied openness steady ~78%, residual premium ~$7/bbl.
• SAUDI RESTART / GLUT — Saudi tankers head to Ras Tanura to restart Persian Gulf exports (first since March); a surge of ME + West-African offers and an anticipated 2026 surplus shift attention to glut. Iraq threatens to leave OPEC unless its quota rises; OPEC+ +188k b/d in July.
• INSPECTORS — DUELLING CLAIMS — The verification crack now plays out in public: Trump says Iran 'fully and completely' agreed to inspections, Vance calls the IAEA invite 'a major milestone', and Grossi says the interim deal grants access — yet Tehran insists there are 'NO plans' to admit inspectors to Fordo/Natanz/Isfahan before a FINAL deal. A constructive tilt that does NOT yet lift the durability cap; E3 snapback latent, the standoff live in the 60-day window.
• SECURITY — REVERSER LIVE — The week's friction: Trump says Iran 'violated the ceasefire' with drone activity over the Strait; a cargo ship was attacked near Oman over the weekend (WTI briefly < $70 on wires); ~100 likely IRGC fast-attack craft were tracked mid-strait heading north Jun 27 (highest weekly count in weeks); Iran's FM warns external interference will DELAY the reopening. Offsetting it, the US and Iran halted attacks and agreed to RESUME talks in DOHA — the de-confliction channel survives. Store-side gates (counts, dark-share, curve) have not broken, but the REVERSER vector is re-armed.
• DARK CROSSINGS / ROUTING (Vortexa + Windward + Kpler) — Fresh series confirm the shadow read is WIDENING. Vortexa: dark transits ~57% of all crossings over the conflict, PEAKING 65.2% in May; outbound-laden dark ran 58.5% (Mar) -> 54% (Apr) -> 65.2% (May). Windward: 50-60% of all traffic currently dark. Vortexa's Jungman frames it as a broad COMMERCIAL response to conflict risk, not merely sanctions evasion. Kpler: 94% of transits run off the formal IMO lane (53% the Iranian corridor); the fleet skews shadow (58.7% 20+ yrs, 55.5% no IG P&I). Our visible '~8% dark' counts only AIS-on ships — the real all-traffic dark share is 50-65%. The corridor's normal is a shadow normal.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-05-15 — Dark-share peaks at 65% in Phase 2 — maximum opacity.
• 2026-06-17 — Versailles MoU signed; toll-free reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22 — Switzerland Round 1: road map + Hormuz de-confliction channel; US Treasury 60-day waiver.
• 2026-06-23/24 — Center-corridor transits return (21 visible Jun 23, 62 transits / 5 dark Jun 24); gate clears -> UPGRADE to Phase 4 Normalizing flows; Brent $76.53 -> $74.44.
• 2026-06-26 — Brent curve flips to mild backwardation (premium largely out); Saudi Ras Tanura restart (first since March); glut narrative takes over. Phase 4 HOLDS — premium largely discharged, barrels and inspector access the last two gaps.
• 2026-06-27/28 — Weekend: price flat (no print). News-only — Wright claims a ~20M-bbl 24h record (contested vs ~5.1 mb/d sustained); Trump/Vance/IAEA say the deal grants inspector access, Tehran denies 'any plans' pre-final-deal; IRGC formalises Tehran-designated routing. Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-06-29 — REVERSER re-arms: Trump alleges a ceasefire violation (drones over the Strait), a cargo ship is hit near Oman (wire Brent ~$72, not yet in store), Iran's FM warns interference delays reopening — but US-Iran talks move to DOHA. Store gates intact; Phase 4 HOLDS.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — STRENGTHENING on flow + pricing (flattened curve, Brent in the mid-70s, Saudi restart) — but the DURABILITY vector stays capped by the IAEA dispute. Flow/pricing and verification point in different directions; the corridor is open, the deal that underwrites it isn't sealed.
• ACCELERANT — Barrels catching counts (~5.1 -> 8-12 mb/d) as the Saudi/Gulf restart scales, AND a clean inspector entry to the damaged sites inside the 60-day window — together, the Phase-5 Normalized path.
• REVERSER (elevated) — Now broader: alongside an IAEA-dispute hardening / enrichment-talks collapse / E3-snapback, the weekend adds a SECURITY path — a CONFIRMED ceasefire violation, a repeat tanker/cargo attack, or a Doha-talks breakdown re-arms durability/MoU-snapback fear and pulls DOWNGRADE-RISK toward Phase 3/2 — the one path that puts a bid back under crude.

CENTRAL TENSION — Flow/pricing-vs-verification * counts-vs-barrels

• PRICING — Brent ~$74.44 (-20.6% 1m), down about a fifth on the month, the curve flattened to a mild backwardation — the war premium is largely discharged (oil model ~78% implied open, residual ~$7/bbl) and the market increasingly trades the 2026 glut. A disinflationary offset cutting against the hot core-PCE (3.4%) hike scare.
• PHYSICAL — Normalised on the VISIBLE population — AIS-on dark ~8-10% under the 45 gate, ~35-40 transits/day, Saudi restart underway — but on an ALL-traffic basis 50-65% runs dark, so 'transparency back' holds only for what we can see. The lag is throughput (~5.1 mb/d tracker, ~25-32% of pre-war; wires claim ~75%).
• READ — The divergence is FLOW/PRICING (normalised, premium largely out) vs DIPLOMACY/VERIFICATION (re-contested). Markets and tankers say open and oversupplied; the IAEA standoff says the durability underwriting the reopening is not yet secured — snapback the stick.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 4 holds; the Saudi/Gulf restart scales and barrels grind from ~5.1 toward 8-10 mb/d; the IAEA dispute stays a war of words inside the 60-day window; Brent in the mid-70s with the curve in mild backwardation.
• BEAR — The IAEA standoff hardens, enrichment talks collapse, OR a kinetic re-escalation (confirmed ceasefire violation, a repeat Oman-style attack) returns; E3-snapback fear rebuilds, dark-share rebounds above 45%, the curve re-backwardates and Brent snaps +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.
• BULL — Iran admits inspectors to the damaged sites + a nuclear annex lands inside the window; barrels back above 12 mb/d on the Gulf restart; dark to ~5%; Phase 5 Normalized in 3-4 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS on the store gates — but 29 Jun is a two-sided tape. To the downside, the REVERSER re-armed: Trump alleges a ceasefire violation (drones over the Strait), a cargo ship was hit near Oman (wire Brent ~$72, not yet in our store, which holds Fri's $74.44, curve +$3.97, ~78% implied open), and Iran's FM warns interference delays the reopening. To the upside, US-Iran talks move to DOHA and wires put Gulf exports back to ~75% of pre-war — though we hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d tracker read. The standing caveat is the shadow read (Windward 50-60% of all traffic dark, on Tehran's terms). Gates intact, Phase 4 stands — but a confirmed re-escalation, not a verbal one, is the path that re-bids crude and puts the downgrade in play.