Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 30 Jun 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• OPEN — Counts up ~3x off the trough but PLATEAUING — ~35-40 transits/day, still only ~1/4 of the 138 pre-war baseline; Lloyd's puts ~44-45 transits MONTH-TO-DATE on a traced basis with tonnage ~90% below normal, and >600 vessels still stuck in the wider Gulf. A dark queue persists. ~51M bbl exited this month (Kpler, ~21M Iranian); the Saudi Ras Tanura restart (first since March) is scaling. Backlog clearing, but counts stall around a quarter of pre-war.
• PHASE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS (prev Phase 4). Opacity gate clear on the VISIBLE population (AIS-on dark ~8-10% < 45) with counts steady and the curve in backwardation — BUT the gate reads AIS-off among visible vessels; on an ALL-traffic basis Lloyd's/Windward/Vortexa see 50-80% dark, which would stress the gate. No Phase-5 upgrade: that needs durable barrels AND a clean inspector entry — neither delivered.
• VELOCITY — STALLED near-term. Visible openness has been FLAT around the 40-transit plateau for ~4-5 days (~29% of pre-war on counts), so the gauge's trailing 7-day 'accelerating' slope OVERSTATES momentum — the corridor is open-but-capped, not marching to full openness. The swing factor is now diplomatic (Doha) and verbal (Araghchi's 30-day terms), not a fresh count move.
• ESTIMATE — VOLUME the lone caveat, and the range stays wide: sustained trackers read ~5.1 (JPMorgan) / ~4.8 (Kpler) mb/d (~25-32% of pre-war) — with Kpler putting ~2-2.5 mb/d specifically on the DARK channel — while wires still claim Gulf exports back to ~75% of pre-war. We hold the conservative tracker read; the high-side figures are wire/official, not corroborated. Flow QUALITY normalised; durable VOLUME remains the gap between Phase 4 and 5.

DARK TRANSITS * SHADOW FLEET — The shadow norm — tracker-by-tracker (the daily dark-transit sweep)

• LLOYD'S LIST INTELLIGENCE — ~80% of currently-TRACED Hormuz transits are running dark; ~44-45 transits month-to-date with tonnage ~90% below normal. The bypass pattern: laden tankers exit, ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman, empty hulls run back AIS-off. Non-Iranian dark transits scaled 17 (Mar) -> 64 (Apr) -> 70 (May) — now >2/3 of all non-Iranian movements.
• WINDWARD — 50-60% of ALL traffic completely dark (co-founder Ami Daniel to CNBC); >1,100 vessels hit by GPS interference region-wide since the conflict began. A mid-June sample (151 transits, 1-15 Jun) flagged ~18% of those dark at ~7 visible ships/day — the visible count is a fraction of the real flow.
• VORTEXA / KPLER — Vortexa: dark transits ~57% of all crossings over the conflict, PEAKING 65.2% in May (outbound-laden 58.5% Mar -> 54% Apr -> 65.2% May). Kpler: most cargoes pass dark, primarily UAE-origin crude, ~2-2.5 mb/d on the dark channel; 94% of transits run OFF the formal IMO lane (53% the Iranian corridor); the fleet skews shadow (58.7% are 20+ yrs, 55.5% carry no IG P&I).
• JMIC — GUIDANCE REVERSES — NOTABLE shift: the Joint Maritime Information Center (Combined Maritime Forces) keeps the regional risk level CRITICAL but its LATEST advisory REVERSES the earlier 'go dark' guidance — now advising southern-corridor transit with AIS and nav systems ON, running lights and radar up. A de-confliction signal that, if heeded, would start to thin the dark share — watch the next prints.
• READ — Our visible '~8-10% dark' gate counts only AIS-ON ships; the all-traffic dark share is 50-80% depending on tracker and basis. The corridor's normal is a SHADOW normal — a broad commercial response to conflict + GPS-jamming risk, not merely sanctions evasion (Vortexa's Jungman). The JMIC reversal is the first signpost that could bend it back toward transparency.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• DOHA TALKS CONVENE — After the Sunday-eve (28 Jun) stand-down halting five days of tit-for-tat strikes, US-Iran technical Strait talks convene in DOHA today (30 Jun). The root dispute: clashing readings of the MoU's transit-rules article. The de-confliction channel doesn't just survive — it advances.
• ARAGHCHI — 30-DAY OVERSIGHT — Iran's FM Araghchi (Baghdad presser) declares the Strait under Tehran's 'total oversight and management' for the next 30 days and warns external/unilateral arrangements 'increase tensions and delay' reopening; the IRGC (via Tasnim) warns continued violations bring 'suspension of all related processes.' Diplomacy advances and the terms harden simultaneously.
• PRICE — DIP REALISED — The weekend Oman-attack dip is now IN the store: Brent $72.63 (Mon 29 Jun, lowest since late-Feb, -0.6% d/d, ~-21% 1m), WTI $70.43; the curve flattened to ~+1.5 backwardation (fwd-12m $71.09), the 2026 glut sitting in the back end, not near-term scarcity. Implied openness firmer at ~83%, residual premium ~$6/bbl.
• GLUT / SUPPLY — IEA pegs the 2026 surplus ~3.84 mb/d (~4% of demand), 2026 demand cut to ~104 mb/d. OPEC+ +188k b/d in July; Saudi Ras Tanura restart underway; Iraq threatens to leave OPEC+ unless its quota rises (UAE already exited in May). The supply side keeps the bid capped even with the reverser armed.
• INSPECTORS — STILL DUELLING — The verification crack is unresolved: Trump/Vance/Grossi say the interim deal grants IAEA access; Tehran insists 'no plans' to admit inspectors to Fordo/Natanz/Isfahan before a FINAL deal. A constructive tilt that does NOT yet lift the durability cap; E3 snapback latent in the 60-day window.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-05-15 — Dark-share peaks at 65% in Phase 2 — maximum opacity.
• 2026-06-17 — Versailles MoU signed; toll-free reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22/24 — Switzerland Round 1: road map + Hormuz de-confliction channel; center-corridor transits return (62 transits / 5 dark Jun 24) -> UPGRADE to Phase 4 Normalizing flows; Brent $76.53 -> $74.44.
• 2026-06-26 — Brent curve flips to mild backwardation (premium largely out); Saudi Ras Tanura restart; the glut narrative takes over. Phase 4 HOLDS — barrels and inspector access the last two gaps.
• 2026-06-27/29 — REVERSER re-arms: tanker/cargo attacks (Ever Lovely 25 Jun, Kiku 27 Jun), Iranian missiles on Kuwait/Bahrain, Trump alleges a ceasefire violation — then a Sunday-eve STAND-DOWN. Brent slips to $72.63 (dip realised). Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-06-30 — Doha talks convene; Araghchi asserts 30-day 'total oversight' and warns of delay; JMIC reverses its 'go dark' advisory. Dark sweep confirms 50-80% shadow. Store gates intact; Phase 4 HOLDS.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — STRENGTHENING on flow + pricing (flattened curve, Brent low-70s, Saudi restart) AND on process (Doha talks advancing) — but the DURABILITY vector stays capped by the IAEA dispute and now by Araghchi's 30-day-oversight assertion. Flow/pricing/process and verification/terms still diverge.
• ACCELERANT — A constructive Doha outcome + barrels catching counts (~5.1 -> 8-12 mb/d) as the Gulf restart scales + a clean inspector entry inside the 60-day window + a falling dark share as the JMIC AIS-on guidance takes — together, the Phase-5 Normalized path.
• REVERSER (elevated) — A Doha breakdown, a CONFIRMED ceasefire violation or a repeat tanker/cargo attack, an IAEA-dispute hardening / enrichment-talks collapse / E3-snapback, OR Araghchi's 30-day terms being enforced against non-Iranian transit — any re-arms durability/MoU-snapback fear and pulls DOWNGRADE-RISK toward Phase 3/2, the one path that puts a bid back under crude.

CENTRAL TENSION — Flow/pricing/process-vs-verification/terms

• PRICING — Brent ~$72.63 (-21% 1m), the curve flattened to mild backwardation — the war premium is largely discharged (oil model ~83% implied open, residual ~$6/bbl) and the market increasingly trades the 2026 glut. A disinflationary offset cutting against the hot core-PCE (3.4%) hike scare.
• PHYSICAL — Normalised on the VISIBLE population — AIS-on dark ~8-10% under the 45 gate, ~35-40 transits/day, Saudi restart underway — but on an ALL-traffic basis 50-80% runs dark (Lloyd's ~80% of traced), so 'transparency back' holds only for what we can see. The lag is throughput (~5.1 mb/d tracker, ~25-32% of pre-war; wires claim ~75%).
• READ — The divergence is FLOW/PRICING/PROCESS (normalised, premium largely out, Doha advancing) vs VERIFICATION/TERMS (IAEA unresolved, Araghchi asserting 30-day oversight). Markets and tankers say open and oversupplied; the diplomacy says the durability underwriting the reopening isn't sealed — snapback the stick.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 4 holds; Doha advances without a breakthrough; the Saudi/Gulf restart scales and barrels grind from ~5.1 toward 8-10 mb/d; the IAEA dispute and the 30-day-oversight assertion stay a war of words inside the window; Brent low-to-mid-70s with the curve in mild backwardation.
• BEAR — Doha breaks down, the IAEA standoff hardens, OR a kinetic re-escalation returns (confirmed ceasefire violation, a repeat Oman-style attack), OR Iran enforces its 30-day terms against non-Iranian transit; E3-snapback fear rebuilds, dark-share rebounds, the curve re-backwardates and Brent snaps +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.
• BULL — A constructive Doha annex + Iran admits inspectors to the damaged sites inside the window; barrels back above 12 mb/d on the Gulf restart; the JMIC AIS-on guidance takes and dark falls toward ~5%; Phase 5 Normalized in 3-4 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 30 Jun is the day process and terms harden together. To the upside, US-Iran talks convene in DOHA, the weekend kinetic stand-down holds (no new strike since 27 Jun), the JMIC advisory reverses toward AIS-on transit, and Brent sits at $72.63 with the curve flattened and ~83% implied openness. To the downside, Araghchi asserts 30-day Tehran 'total oversight', the IRGC threatens to suspend the process on any violation, and the dark sweep confirms a stubborn shadow norm (Lloyd's ~80% of traced transits dark, Windward 50-60% of all traffic). We hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d tracker read over the ~75% wire claim. Gates intact — but a confirmed re-escalation or a Doha breakdown, not a verbal hardening, is the path that re-bids crude and puts the downgrade in play.