Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 3 Jul 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• OPEN — Counts hold ~35-43 transits/day (~1/4 of the 138 pre-war baseline; the 1 Jul print was 43, 24 in/19 out, only 4 fully AIS-off). Straits.live marks 'day 122' with volume ~70% below baseline. Official/Vance claims run far higher (16-20M bbl single-day 'records'; Iran says 40M+ bbl since the blockade lifted), but the conservative tracker read holds ~5.1 mb/d. Backlog clears; the Saudi Ras Tanura restart scales. Counts open-but-capped around a quarter of pre-war.
• PHASE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS (prev Phase 4). The opacity gate reads the ALL-traffic dark share (~55%: Windward 50-60% now, Vortexa 57% conflict-avg off the 65.2% May peak) — so the gate FAILS on BOTH legs (throughput 5.1 < 12 AND dark 55 > 45), not just barrels. Phase holds regardless (downgrade fires on pricing/durability, not the gate). No Phase-5 upgrade: that needs durable barrels, a falling all-traffic dark share, AND a clean inspector entry.
• VELOCITY — STALLED near-term on counts (~40-transit plateau, ~29% of pre-war), so the gauge's trailing 7-day slope OVERSTATES momentum. The live movers are diplomatic (the Doha technical track now advancing) and pricing (Brent steadying at $71.52, +~0.9%, the glut still capping), not a fresh count move.
• ESTIMATE — VOLUME the lone caveat; the range stays wide. Sustained trackers read ~5.1 (JPMorgan) / ~4.8 (Kpler) mb/d (~25-32% of pre-war) — Kpler ~2-2.5 mb/d specifically on the DARK channel — while officials claim single-day records. We hold the conservative tracker; the high-side figures are official/wire, not corroborated. Flow QUALITY normalised; durable VOLUME remains the Phase 4->5 gap.

DARK TRANSITS * SHADOW FLEET — The shadow norm — tracker-by-tracker (the daily dark-transit sweep, re-searched 3 Jul)

• LLOYD'S LIST INTELLIGENCE — The shadow FLEET DOMINATES Hormuz crossings as Iran ramps bypass loadings — ~80% of currently TRACED transits run dark. The bypass pattern: laden tankers exit, ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman, empty hulls run back AIS-off. Non-Iranian dark transits scaled 17 (Mar) -> 64 (Apr) -> 70 (May) — now >2/3 of all non-Iranian movements.
• WINDWARD — 50-60% of ALL traffic completely dark; >1,100 vessels hit by GPS interference region-wide since the conflict began. The visible count is a fraction of the real flow — 'transparency back' holds only for the AIS-on population.
• VORTEXA / KPLER — Vortexa: dark transits ~57% of all crossings over the conflict, PEAKING 65.2% in May (now receding). Kpler: most cargoes pass dark, primarily UAE-origin crude, ~2-2.5 mb/d on the dark channel; 94% of transits run OFF the formal IMO lane (53% the Iranian corridor); the fleet skews shadow (58.7% are 20+ yrs, 55.5% carry no IG P&I).
• FRESHEST PRINT (1 JUL) — 43 transits (24 in / 19 out) with only 4 running FULLY AIS-off (3 in / 1 out, ~9% of the day's observable transits) — the per-transit AIS-off share keeps receding even as the structural shadow-fleet norm holds ~55%. The prior granular print (29 Jun) had 42 transits, 10 IMAGERY-CONFIRMED dark hulls and 110 dark-activity events, with three OFAC-designated vessels rotating (an outbound ~337kbbl tanker with recent Russian port calls, one inbound emerging from a 92-DAY AIS blackout to Larak, an LPG carrier re-emerging after 89 dark days) — a COORDINATED shadow-fleet rotation. Kpler: >20M bbl of Iranian crude ready to sail 7+ days, +18% w/w — the glut backlog building behind the reopening.
• READ — The gate reads the ALL-traffic dark share (~55%, re-confirmed by today's sweep — NOT carried forward), so the opacity leg FAILS the 45 line and OPACITY sits ~5pts under its 60 trip. The corridor's normal is a SHADOW normal — a broad commercial response to conflict + GPS-jamming risk, not merely sanctions evasion. The JMIC AIS-on reversal is the one signpost that could bend it back toward transparency; a break above 60 arms OPACITY.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• DOHA — TECHNICAL TRACK ADVANCES — Contra yesterday's stall, indirect/technical US-Iran talks are UNDERWAY in Doha (Qatar + Pakistan mediating). Gharibabadi says WORKING GROUPS are formed to implement the MoU and negotiate a final deal; the first-phase regional understandings centre on MINE CLEARANCE + maritime safety in the Strait, coordinated with Oman. A constructive tilt on process.
• BUT — HIGH-LEVEL CONDITIONAL — Qatar reports NO high-level meetings yet, and chief negotiator Ghalibaf says Iran will NOT enter further negotiations until the MoU is implemented. The Islamabad/Versailles MoU (17 Jun) holds the 60-day ceasefire; the high-level track stays gated on implementation, not yet on terms.
• IAEA — STILL DUELLING — FM spokesman Baghaei tells Grossi to 'stop political statements and focus on his duties' — the verification crack is unresolved (Tehran resists inspector access to Fordo/Natanz/Isfahan before a FINAL deal). A constructive process tilt that does NOT yet lift the durability cap; E3 snapback latent in the 60-day window.
• PRICE — STEADIES, GLUT CAPS — Brent EDGES UP to $71.52 (+~0.9% off 2 Jul's $70.92) — a small steadying off the low, the glut still the dominant frame; WTI $68.40. The curve stays near-flat (the 2026 overhang in the back end). Implied openness ~87%, residual premium ~$4.5/bbl (ticks up marginally as Brent firms). Gold EXTENDS its surge to ~$4,139 (+~2.2%) — the real-rate / safe-haven bid running hotter than crude.
• GLUT / SUPPLY — Iran says it has shipped 40M+ bbl since the blockade lifted; Russian exports at records; the IEA warns a lasting resolution could drive an ~8 mb/d 2027 supply surge vs ~2 mb/d demand — a major overhang. OPEC's al-Ghais DISMISSES the glut call. OPEC+ +188k b/d July; Saudi Ras Tanura restart underway. The supply side keeps the bid capped even with the reverser latent.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-05-15 — Dark-share peaks at 65% in Phase 2 — maximum opacity.
• 2026-06-17 — Islamabad/Versailles MoU signed; toll-free reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22/24 — Switzerland Round 1: road map + Hormuz de-confliction channel; center-corridor transits return -> UPGRADE to Phase 4 Normalizing flows; Brent $76.53 -> $74.44.
• 2026-06-26 — Brent curve flips to mild backwardation (premium largely out); Saudi Ras Tanura restart; the glut narrative takes over. Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-06-30 — H1 mark; Araghchi asserts 30-day 'total oversight'; JMIC reverses its 'go dark' advisory; dark sweep confirms a stubborn ~55% all-traffic shadow. Brent $72.63. Store gates intact; Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-07-01 — Doha high-level convening slips; hardliners demand nuclear deterrence; Brent bounces to $73.13. Dark-share scalar RE-BASED onto the all-traffic denominator (~55%). Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-07-02 — Doha TECHNICAL track advances (working groups formed, mine-clearance first); Brent DROPS to $70.92 on the glut (~88% implied open); dark sweep re-confirms ~55%. Phase 4 HOLDS; direction firms.
• 2026-07-03 — Quiet, price-led follow-through: Brent steadies at $71.52 (+~0.9%), gold extends to ~$4,139; the Doha technical track carries with no high-level meeting; dark norm holds ~55% (~87% implied open). Phase 4 HOLDS.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — STRENGTHENING on flow + pricing (Brent low-70s and falling, curve flat, Saudi restart) AND now modestly on process (the Doha technical track advancing on mine-clearance/maritime-safety) — but the DURABILITY vector stays capped by the IAEA dispute and the conditional high-level track.
• ACCELERANT — A high-level Doha convening + barrels catching counts (~5.1 -> 8-12 mb/d) as the Gulf restart scales + a clean inspector entry inside the 60-day window + a falling all-traffic dark share as the JMIC AIS-on guidance takes — together, the Phase-5 Normalized path.
• REVERSER (latent) — A Doha breakdown, a CONFIRMED ceasefire violation or a repeat tanker/cargo attack, an IAEA-dispute hardening / enrichment-talks collapse / E3-snapback, OR Iran enforcing unilateral 'oversight' terms against non-Iranian transit — any re-arms durability/MoU-snapback fear and pulls DOWNGRADE-RISK toward Phase 3/2, the one path that puts a bid back under crude.

CENTRAL TENSION — Flow/pricing/process-vs-verification/terms

• PRICING — Brent ~$71.52 (+~0.9% d/d, still deep in the low-70s), the curve near-flat — the war premium is largely discharged (oil model ~87% implied open, residual ~$4.5/bbl) and the market trades the 2026 glut. A disinflationary offset into the jobs-day tape; gold's continued surge to ~$4,139 is the tell that the bid is rotating to real-rate / safe-haven, not oil.
• PHYSICAL — Normalised only on the VISIBLE population — ~35-40 transits/day, Saudi restart underway — but the gate scores the ALL-traffic dark share (~55%, Lloyd's ~80% of traced), which FAILS the 45 line, so 'transparency back' holds only for what we can see. The lag is throughput (~5.1 mb/d tracker, ~25-32% of pre-war; officials claim single-day records) AND opacity — both gate legs unmet.
• READ — The divergence is FLOW/PRICING/PROCESS (normalised, premium out, the Doha technical track now advancing) vs VERIFICATION/TERMS (IAEA unresolved, the high-level track conditional on MoU implementation). Markets and tankers say open and oversupplied; the diplomacy says the durability underwriting the reopening isn't sealed — snapback the stick.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 4 holds; the Doha technical track grinds on (mine-clearance/maritime-safety) without a high-level breakthrough; the Saudi/Gulf restart scales and barrels grind from ~5.1 toward 8-10 mb/d; the IAEA dispute stays a war of words inside the window; Brent low-70s and soft with the curve flat on the glut.
• BEAR — The Doha track breaks down, the IAEA standoff hardens, OR a kinetic re-escalation returns (confirmed ceasefire violation, a repeat Oman-style attack), OR Iran enforces unilateral terms against non-Iranian transit; E3-snapback fear rebuilds, dark-share climbs back toward 65, the curve re-backwardates and Brent snaps +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.
• BULL — A high-level Doha convening + Iran admits inspectors to the damaged sites inside the window; barrels back above 12 mb/d on the Gulf restart; the JMIC AIS-on guidance takes and the all-traffic dark share falls toward ~30-40; Phase 5 Normalized in 3-4 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 3 Jul is a quiet, price-led follow-through, PROCESS carrying while TERMS stay stuck. Brent STEADIES at $71.52 (+~0.9% off 2 Jul's low) with the glut still capping the tape and gold extending to ~$4,139; ~87% implied openness, ~$4.5/bbl residual. The Doha technical track carries (working groups on mine-clearance) but Qatar reports no high-level meeting and Iran conditions further talks on MoU implementation; the IAEA dispute is unresolved; and the dark sweep holds a stubborn ~55% all-traffic shadow norm (Lloyd's ~80% of traced). We hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d tracker over the official record claims. Gates intact — but a Doha breakdown or a confirmed re-escalation, not a quiet tape, is the path that re-bids crude and puts the downgrade in play.