Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 7 Jul 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• OPEN — Counts recover — Windward 5 Jul = 36 visible transits (20 in / 16 out) vs 25 on 4 Jul, ~35/day, roughly a third of a ~84-110 pre-war baseline; straits.live marks 'day 128' (its incident/'missile' claims are stale scraped content and are discounted). No NEW IRGC diversion on 6-7 Jul after the 4-5 Jul pattern. Official/US figures run far higher (~7 mb/d 'trending up'; Vortexa all-liquids ~10.2 mb/d June), but the conservative tracker holds ~5.1 mb/d. Open-but-capped; the on-water assertion-of-control is quiet today.
• PHASE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS (prev Phase 4). The opacity gate reads the ALL-traffic dark share (~55%: Vortexa ~57% conflict-avg off the 65.2% May peak, Lloyd's ~half of traced) — so the gate FAILS on BOTH legs (throughput 5.1 < 12 AND dark 55 > 45). Phase holds regardless (downgrade fires on pricing/durability, not the gate). No Phase-5 upgrade: it needs durable barrels, a falling all-traffic dark share, AND a clean inspector entry — and the IAEA line HARDENED today, pushing the wrong way on that last leg.
• VELOCITY — FLAT. Flow/price steady-to-soft (Brent $72.05 ~flat, glut capping) and process STALLED by the funeral hiatus (Doha regroups after 9 Jul). The physical vector is quiet (no fresh IRGC incident) but the DURABILITY vector took a knock — the IAEA extending its access ban to all 20 sites. The live movers are diplomatic/verification, not a fresh count or price move.
• ESTIMATE — VOLUME the lone caveat; the range stays wide. Kpler/Vortexa crude-VISIBLE reads just 226-330 kb/d (a heavy transponder-off undercount); Vortexa all-liquids ~10.2 mb/d June; US officials ~7 mb/d. We hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d floor over both the official records and the hot all-liquids framing. Flow QUALITY normalised; durable VOLUME + verification remain the Phase 4->5 gap.

DARK TRANSITS * SHADOW FLEET — The shadow norm — tracker-by-tracker (the daily dark-transit sweep, re-searched 7 Jul)

• WINDWARD — 5 Jul = 36 transits (20 in / 16 out), the recovery trend intact (~35/day). Gulf-wide latest read: 861 cargo/tanker vessels, 112 DARK-ACTIVITY events, risk profile 132 high / 197 moderate / 546 low; 4 Jul had one inbound + one outbound fully AIS-dark and an unidentified dark tanker imaged near Kharg. 50-60% of all traffic dark; GPS interference persists region-wide. 'Transparency back' holds only for the AIS-on population.
• VORTEXA — Dark transits ~57% of all recorded crossings over the conflict, PEAKING 65.2% in May (now receding). Two-thirds of the dark movers are NON-Iranian operators moving Emirati / Iraqi / Qatari / Saudi-linked barrels — the shadow norm is a broad commercial response to conflict + GPS-jamming, not merely sanctions evasion.
• KPLER / LSEG — Kpler + Vortexa crude-only AIS-visible = 226-330 kb/d in June — both stress this SUBSTANTIALLY undercounts on transponder deactivation. Most cargoes pass dark (UAE-origin crude prominent); ~2-2.5 mb/d on the dark channel; the fleet skews shadow (older hulls, no IG P&I) and largely runs OFF the formal IMO lane.
• LLOYD'S LIST INTELLIGENCE — The shadow FLEET DOMINATES Hormuz crossings — about HALF of all >10,000-dwt tanker/gas transits run dark as Iran ramps bypass loadings (laden exit, ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman, empty hulls back AIS-off). Non-Iranian dark transits scaled through Mar-May to >2/3 of all non-Iranian movements.
• READ — The gate reads the ALL-traffic dark share (~55%, re-confirmed by today's sweep — NOT carried forward), so the opacity leg FAILS the 45 line and OPACITY sits ~5pts under its 60 trip. The corridor's normal is a SHADOW normal. Today's tell is quiet — counts recovering, no fresh diversion — but the structural shadow share holds. The JMIC AIS-on reversal is the signpost that bends it back toward transparency; a break above 60 arms OPACITY.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• IAEA — ACCESS BAN HARDENS (the day's negative) — Gharibabadi EXTENDED Iran's sequencing demand to ALL 20 declared nuclear sites — no inspections until a FINAL deal + full sanctions relief; the IAEA warns 'continuity of knowledge' on the uranium stockpile is now BROKEN. The verification crack is not just unresolved but widening — the durability cap tightens; E3 snapback stays latent in the 60-day window.
• FUNERAL / SUCCESSION — The Khamenei state funeral runs 3-9 Jul (Tehran / Qom / Najaf / Karbala, burial Mashhad). Successor Mojtaba Khamenei (appointed 8 Mar) remains a persistent NO-SHOW — believed wounded — feeding succession-legitimacy questions. A leadership-transition overhang that adds durability risk without a fresh kinetic trigger.
• DOHA — REGROUP AFTER THE FUNERAL — The Doha round made 'positive progress' on maritime traffic + frozen funds (a goods-purchase mechanism agreed) and is PAUSED for the funeral, to regroup 'at the earliest possible time' after 9 Jul. VP Vance: talks 'going well', the nuclear track to start 'soon'. MoU implementation clauses stay disputed; the high-level track is conditional, not sealed.
• TOLL / IRGC — QUIET AFTER 4-5 JUL — No NEW fee escalation or IRGC diversion on 6-7 Jul. Iran maintains it will levy 'maritime service fees' (not 'tolls'), with 'special treatment' for friendly nations, and the IRGC keeps enforcing the Iranian-coast northern route vs the US/Oman/IMO southern corridor — the 4-5 Jul diversions of ~6 vessels stand as the live precedent. The toll stays the hardest open question for the post-Day-60 corridor.
• PRICE — SOFT, GLUT DOMINATES — Brent $72.05 (~flat off Mon's $72.10); WTI ~$69.1, near its lowest since late-Feb on the 2026 glut — OPEC+ +188 kb/d next month, Saudi exports ~90% of pre-war, record UAE flows. The war premium is bled out (oil model ~85% implied open, residual ~$5/bbl). Gold EASES to ~$4,148 (-0.4%) — the geopolitical-hedge bid softening as de-escalation holds, steadying ahead of the June FOMC minutes.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-06-17 — Islamabad/Versailles MoU signed; toll-free 60-day reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22/26 — Switzerland Round 1 + Hormuz de-confliction -> UPGRADE to Phase 4; Brent curve flips to mild backwardation, Saudi Ras Tanura restart, the glut narrative takes over. Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-06-30 / 07-03 — H1 mark; JMIC reverses its 'go dark' advisory; the Doha technical track advances (working groups, mine-clearance first); Brent slides $72.63 -> $71.52 on the glut; dark norm ~55%.
• 2026-07-04 — US Independence Day. Doha CONCLUDES with 'positive progress', then PAUSES for Khamenei's 3-9 Jul state funeral. Iran issues a fresh Tehran-routing warning; IRGC VHF warning diverts ~6 vessels. Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-07-05/06 — IRGC repeats: ~6 more vessels diverted on 5 Jul. Iran's envoy to China says it 'will definitely charge' Hormuz service fees, 'special treatment' for friendly nations. Reopen: Brent firms to $72.10, gold ~$4,190. Phase 4 HOLDS; durability cap tightens.
• 2026-07-07 — Quieter consolidation: no new IRGC/toll move, but the IAEA HARDENS (access ban extended to all 20 sites, continuity-of-knowledge broken). Counts recover (36 on 5 Jul); Brent ~flat $72.05, gold eases to ~$4,148 on de-escalation. Doha regroups after the 9 Jul funeral end. Phase 4 HOLDS.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — FLAT-to-softening on durability. Flow + pricing steady (Brent low-70s, glut, counts recovering) but process PAUSED (funeral) and the VERIFICATION vector WORSENED — the IAEA extending its access ban to all 20 sites. No downgrade, but the durability cap is now double-anchored by the toll dispute AND a hardened inspector standoff.
• ACCELERANT — A post-funeral (>9 Jul) high-level Doha convening + a toll climb-down + a clean inspector entry inside the 60-day window + barrels catching counts (~5.1 -> 8-12 mb/d) + a falling all-traffic dark share — together, the Phase-5 Normalized path.
• REVERSER (partly live) — The named 'unilateral terms / verification collapse' reverser is no longer purely latent — the 4-5 Jul IRGC diversions, the 'definitely charge' fee assertion and now the all-20-sites IAEA ban are the early expression. A step up — a fee actually imposed pre-Day-60, a boarding / detained tanker, an E3 snapback trigger, or a Doha breakdown post-funeral — re-arms durability fear, climbs dark-share back toward 65, re-backwardates the curve and snaps Brent +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.

CENTRAL TENSION — Flow/pricing-vs-verification/terms

• PRICING — Brent ~$72.05 (~flat, deep in the low-70s), WTI ~$69.1 near a 4-month low — the war premium is discharged (oil model ~85% implied open, residual ~$5/bbl) and the market trades the 2026 glut (OPEC+ +188 kb/d). Gold easing to ~$4,148 is the tell that the geopolitical-hedge bid is softening as de-escalation holds.
• VERIFICATION / TERMS — Normalised on the VISIBLE population (~35 transits/day, recovering) but the gate scores the ALL-traffic dark share (~55%), which FAILS the 45 line. And the TERMS/VERIFICATION legs WORSENED: the IAEA access ban extended to all 20 sites (continuity-of-knowledge broken) atop the unresolved toll. Both gate legs unmet; the reopening's underwriting is contested.
• READ — The divergence is FLOW/PRICING (normalised, premium out, oversupplied) vs VERIFICATION/TERMS (IAEA now HARDER, toll asserted, high-level track paused for the funeral). Markets and visible tankers say open and oversupplied; the diplomacy says the durability underwriting the reopening is moving BACKWARD this week — snapback + the toll the two sticks.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 4 holds; the funeral hiatus ends and Doha resumes >9 Jul without a high-level breakthrough; the IAEA standoff stays a war of position; Iran keeps asserting fees rhetorically but imposes nothing binding pre-Day-60; the Gulf restart scales and barrels grind from ~5.1 toward 8-10 mb/d; Brent low-70s and soft on the glut.
• BEAR — The IAEA standoff triggers an E3 snapback, OR Iran IMPOSES a fee / boards a non-friendly-flag tanker pre-Day-60, OR the Doha track breaks post-funeral, OR a kinetic re-escalation returns during the transition; snapback fear rebuilds, dark-share climbs toward 65, the curve re-backwardates and Brent snaps +$5-8; Phase 4 un-confirms to 3/2.
• BULL — A post-funeral high-level Doha convening + Iran admits inspectors to the damaged sites inside the window + a non-discriminatory fee framework the US accepts; barrels back above 12 mb/d on the Gulf restart; the JMIC AIS-on guidance takes and the all-traffic dark share falls toward ~30-40; Phase 5 Normalized in 3-4 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 4 Normalizing flows HOLDS — 7 Jul is a QUIETER, consolidation read with one real negative: the IAEA HARDENED, extending Iran's access ban to ALL 20 declared sites (no inspections before a final deal + full sanctions relief; continuity-of-knowledge on the uranium stockpile now broken). No fresh IRGC diversion or toll escalation on 6-7 Jul — the 4-5 Jul diversions of ~6 vessels + the 'we will definitely charge service fees' assertion stand as the live, unrepeated frictions. Diplomacy sits in the Khamenei-funeral hiatus (3-9 Jul; successor Mojtaba a persistent no-show, a legitimacy overhang) — Doha to regroup after 9 Jul, Vance calling it 'going well'. Counts recover (36 transits on 5 Jul, ~35/day) and the dark sweep holds ~55% all-traffic (Vortexa ~57%, Lloyd's ~half of traced); we hold the conservative ~5.1 mb/d tracker over the official ~7 mb/d and the ~10 mb/d all-liquids framing. Brent parked at $72.05 (~flat; WTI ~$69.1) on the glut + OPEC+ +188 kb/d; gold EASES to ~$4,148 as the geopolitical-hedge bid softens; ~85% implied openness, ~$5/bbl residual. Gates intact and the kinetic stand-down holds — but a hardened IAEA line, a paused high-level track and the unresolved toll mean the durability underwriting moved BACKWARD this week; an imposed fee, an E3 snapback or a post-funeral Doha breakdown is the path that re-bids crude and puts the downgrade in play.