Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Jul 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• IS IT CLOSED? NO — OPEN, BUT ~ONE-THIRD OF NORMAL AND THINNING — The Strait is NOT closed — ships are still moving — but it is running at only ~30-35% of normal throughput and FALLING. A contested, thinning partial reopening under a live US-Iran kinetic exchange, not a closure.
• TRANSITS TODAY (8 Jul), OUR VIEW — hard counts lag ~2 days — VISIBLE (AIS-on): we estimate ~15-25/day TODAY (~20), DOWN ~40-55% from the ~35-45/day plateau as owners pause Hormuz calls after the strikes. DARK (AIS-off): RISING to ~58% of all traffic (from ~55%) as more vessels transit covertly — ~19 laden dark tankers already hold off-Strait. TOTAL throughput ~4.5 mb/d (from ~5.1) vs ~20 normal. This is OUR estimate for today; the hard cleared-count (PortWatch) lags ~2 days.
• THE DATA BEHIND THE VIEW — Last HARD visible prints, all PRE-strike: 4 Jul = 25, 5 Jul = 34 (PortWatch, ~41% of its ~83/day baseline), 6 Jul = 45 (Windward). Since the 7 Jul attacks: at least FOUR tankers TURNED BACK (Qatari LNG carriers Al Ghariya/Duhail/Al Ruwais + an Indian tanker with ~2m bbl Kuwaiti crude, Kpler/LSEG), the threat level is now 'SEVERE', war-risk hull cover re-bidding toward ~$10-14m/VLCC. Direction of travel: DOWN.
• PHASE — DOWNGRADE — Phase 4 Normalizing flows -> Phase 3 PARTIAL REOPENING (prev Phase 4). The gate still FAILS on both legs (throughput 5.1 < 12 AND dark ~55 > 45); the pricing gate alone would not fire (Brent 1m momentum still negative off the June peak), so the downgrade is driven by the DURABILITY COLLAPSE — the first US strike + first two-way exchange since the 17 Jun MoU. We hold Phase 3, not 2, only because flows are not yet confirmed interrupted; a confirmed interruption, a closure move, or a Brent +8% break tips it to Phase 2.
• VELOCITY — SHARPLY NEGATIVE. Pricing spiked (Brent +6% to $78.78, WTI ~$72) and the durability vector collapsed — a one-off tanker strike became a US-Iran military exchange in <24h. Diplomacy REVERSED: Iran conditions any final-deal talks on the strikes stopping, so the funeral hiatus is now a hostilities hiatus. The live movers are kinetic; momentum is toward further escalation, not normalization.
• HOW OPEN — the two numbers (be explicit) — There are TWO openness reads and they DIVERGE. (1) IMPLIED openness (pricing / residual war-premium basis) sits in the LOW-70s% and is what the model shades. (2) ACTUAL PHYSICAL throughput (visible + dark combined) is far lower: visible ~20-40% of normal, dark barrels lifting the effective figure to only ~30-40% of normal (~5.1 mb/d vs ~20 mb/d; dark share ~55-57%, Vortexa, off the 65.2% May peak). So the honest headline: the market is PRICING ~70% open, but the Strait is PHYSICALLY moving only ~30-35% of normal TODAY and FALLING (turn-backs, 'severe' threat, dark share rising to ~58%). Residual premium ~$9-11/bbl; Brent $78.78 is ~2pts of the +8% re-stress trigger.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions — as regards the Strait

• US CENTCOM RETALIATION — the escalation (first US strike since the MoU) — Overnight 8 Jul US CENTCOM struck 80+ Iranian targets — air defences, radar, anti-ship missile sites and 60+ IRGC small boats, with explosions on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Bushehr — 'to impose heavy costs' for a 'clear ceasefire violation'. The first US strike since the 17 Jun Islamabad MoU; the corridor is now a live US-Iran theatre.
• IRAN RETALIATION — Gulf bases hit — Iran retaliated with missiles/drones on Bahrain (5th Fleet HQ) and Kuwait (Ali Al Salem), triggering air-defence alerts; the IRGC says the US 'openly violated the ceasefire'. The GCC calls for a 'firm and deterrent' response; Qatar calls the Al Rekayyat hit a 'grave violation', Saudi denounces the Wedyan strike. A two-way exchange.
• TANKER STRIKE (the trigger) — three vessels hit — The 7 Jul-night IRGC missile strike ~8nm off Limah struck the Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat (engine-room fire) and the Saudi crude tanker Wedyan; the 'third targeted' vessel was actually struck within 24h — three hit, not two-plus-attempt. Washington had already REVOKED the Iran oil-sales waiver; Tehran called it an MoU (section 10) violation.
• DIPLOMACY — Doha hardens, funeral becomes a hostilities hiatus — Iran's FM: 'negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue'. US-Iran indirect talks stay suspended for the Khamenei funeral (Iraq leg 8 Jul, burial Mashhad 9 Jul; successor Mojtaba still a no-show). The pause is now a hostilities pause; the 'regroup after 9 Jul' timeline is in doubt.
• IAEA / TOLL — the standoffs stand under the strikes — Iran's all-20-sites inspection ban stands (no access before a final deal + full sanctions relief; continuity-of-knowledge broken). The toll / 'maritime service fee' dispute persists (vessels paying in yuan). Both are now secondary to the kinetic vector but compound the durability collapse.
• PRICE — supply-loss risk re-prices crude — Brent $78.78 (+6%; WTI ~$72) — the war premium re-bids hard on a two-way exchange, approaching the +8% re-stress trigger; OPEC+ +188 kb/d and record Gulf flows are the only cap left. Gold ~$4,100 is SOFTER (a stronger USD + higher yields; energy-inflation not refuge). Implied openness low-70s, residual ~$9-11/bbl — a premium re-bid tipping toward a supply-loss repricing.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-06-17 — Islamabad/Versailles MoU signed; toll-free 60-day reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22/26 — Switzerland Round 1 + Hormuz de-confliction -> UPGRADE to Phase 4; the glut narrative takes over. Phase 4 HOLDS through early July.
• 2026-07-04/05 — Doha concludes 'positive progress' then pauses for Khamenei's funeral; IRGC VHF warnings divert ~6 vessels (4-5 Jul); Iran asserts it 'will definitely charge' service fees. Phase 4 HOLDS.
• 2026-07-07 — Quiet consolidation, but the IAEA HARDENS (all-20-sites ban). Overnight the IRGC STRIKES tankers (Al Rekayyat + Wedyan) — the first ceasefire-era attack; the US revokes the Iran oil waiver. Brent +3% to $74. Phase 4 -> FRAGILE.
• 2026-07-08 — TWO-WAY KINETIC EXCHANGE. US CENTCOM strikes 80+ Iranian targets; Iran retaliates on Gulf bases (Bahrain, Kuwait). Brent +6% to $78.78; gold softer ~$4,100. Flows still run, but the reopening is contested -> DOWNGRADE to Phase 3 Partial reopening.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — ESCALATING. A one-off tanker strike became a US-Iran exchange in <24h; the durability vector has collapsed and diplomacy reversed (Iran pre-conditions talks on the strikes stopping). Flows still run, so Phase 3 not 2 — but the momentum is toward further escalation, and the next confirmed flow interruption or Brent +8% break tips it lower.
• REVERSER / ACCELERANT (now dominant) — The escalation ladder is live: a confirmed Strait-flow interruption, a formal Strait-closure threat, a strike on a Gulf export terminal, or a Brent break above the +8% trigger takes it to Phase 2 and a supply-loss repricing (Brent +$10-15). The path DOWN: a rapid ceasefire re-establishment (mediated by Qatar/Oman) + a halt to strikes before flows are hit — which would stabilise Phase 3 rather than un-downgrade quickly.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 3 holds: the exchange stays contained (strikes on military/IRGC assets, not export terminals), flows keep running ~25-35/day, Qatar/Oman broker a re-ceasefire within days; Brent holds mid-to-high-$70s with a ~$9-11 premium; talks resume only after a strikes halt.
• BEAR — The exchange widens — a Strait-flow interruption, a closure threat, a terminal strike, or a Brent +8% break; downgrade to Phase 2, dark-share climbs back toward 65, the curve re-backwardates and Brent snaps +$10-15 into a supply-loss repricing.
• BULL — A fast off-ramp: both sides declare the exchange 'proportionate and concluded', Qatar re-anchors the ceasefire, flows never interrupt, and the premium bleeds back out; Phase 4 re-confirms in 1-2 weeks. Lower-probability while the funeral/hostilities hiatus runs.

Bottom line. Phase 3 (Partial reopening) - downgraded from Phase 4 on a two-way US-Iran kinetic exchange. The Strait is OPEN, not closed - but moving only ~30-35% of normal and thinning (visible ~15-25/day today, dark ~58%, throughput ~4.5 mb/d; the market prices ~70% open, the Strait physically moves ~one-third). US CENTCOM hit 80+ Iranian targets; Iran counter-struck Gulf bases; Brent +6% to $78.78, gold soft ~$4,100. Held at Phase 3, not 2, only because flows are not yet confirmed cut - but at least 4 tankers turned back, the threat is 'severe', and diplomacy reversed (Iran conditions talks on the strikes stopping). Next step-up - a repeat strike, a boarding, a fee imposed, or a Brent +8% break - takes it to Phase 2 and a supply-loss repricing. This is an escalation to manage, not a normalization to confirm.