Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 10 Jul 2026

READ — Openness · phase · velocity

• IS IT OPEN? YES — CONTESTED AND THINNER, BUT NOT SHUT — The Strait is open and moving ships — visible transits ~12/day plus a dark flow (~20 in the last 24h), no terminal struck and no formal closure. Some trackers flash 'closed' (day 131) as an editorial read, but that is not a legal closure and dark barrels keep transiting. Contested and thinner, not shut — and the premium is now bleeding, not building.
• TRANSITS TODAY (10 Jul) — best available data + our view — FRESHEST TRACKER: straits.live reads ~12 visible / ~20 dark transits in the last 24h (dark elevated vs a ~15 baseline) and still flags 'closed' editorially — not a legal closure. LAST HARD COUNT: 5 Jul = 34 (IMF PortWatch, ~2-day lag, ~39% of its ~88/day baseline). OUR VIEW: visible stays in the low-teens (~12/day) on war-risk caution; dark ~60% of what moves; throughput ~4.8 mb/d. War-risk cover 8x pre-crisis ($2.5m/VLCC). Hard confirmation of the 8-10 Jul level lags ~2 days (Windward / Vortexa / Kpler / PortWatch).
• HOW OPEN — implied ~60s-70%, physical ~25-30% — IMPLIED openness (pricing / residual-premium) has FIRMED back toward the high end of the ~60s-70% band as Brent FELL to ~$76.3 — the war premium is bleeding, so the market is NOT pricing a supply catastrophe. ACTUAL physical throughput ~25-30% of normal (visible + dark), broadly steady. The gap between the two is narrowing the right way — a fragile Phase 3 tilting to de-escalation, not a closure.
• PHASE — Phase 3 Partial reopening HELD (prev Phase 3). Durability is fragile (-0.36) but stays ABOVE the -0.5 downgrade line, and Brent's momentum is now NEGATIVE (oil falling), so no gate forces a move — and none forces an upgrade either while the levels gate still fails (throughput 4.8 < 12, dark 60 > 45). Phase 3 is the sticky read; the tilt is toward Phase 4, not Phase 2.
• VELOCITY — TWO-SIDED, but the market vector has turned. Kinetically the exchange is still live (a third strike day past the burial) — the reason we do not yet upgrade. But the PRICE vector has flipped to de-escalation: oil fell despite the strikes, gold did not spike, and the Doha channel is reactivating. The swing is the next 24-48h — a confirmed talks resumption + a strike-pause tips toward Phase 4.

OFFICIAL RECORD · SoH — Statements · decisions as regards the Strait

• STRIKES CONTINUED PAST THE BURIAL — a third day, still military targets — The US-Iran exchange ran a THIRD day through the 9 Jul Mashhad burial (Trump broke his promised funeral pause); a 10 Jul strike near Ahvaz killed 3 more, cumulative US targets ~90-170 (air defence, launch sites, drone stores). Critically the targets stayed MILITARY — NO strike on any oil-export terminal, NO ground escalation. Live, but bounded.
• DIPLOMACY REACTIVATING — the key new signal — The decisive 24-48h development: Axios reports 'extensive diplomatic efforts' under way to secure de-escalation and schedule another nuclear round, and US envoys (Witkoff/Kushner) met Qatar's PM in Doha to restart the channel. Trump keeps the ceasefire 'over' rhetorically but says strikes 'would end quickly' — the door is ajar. The funeral hiatus is turning into a negotiation window.
• PRICE — the premium is BLEEDING off — Brent ~$76.3 (-2.2% in 24h; -3% off the intra-crisis peak), WTI ~$72 — oil FELL despite a third strike day, the opposite of a supply-shock path. The glut + OPEC+ (pledged +206 kb/d to cover disruption) cap it. Gold ~$4,072 (+0.7%) firm but no panic. Residual premium narrowing; the market has stopped pricing escalation.
• TERMINAL-STRIKE TRIGGER STILL NOT FIRED — Trump again threatened Kharg Island / a blockade, but NO oil-export terminal has been struck. This remains the single line to Phase 2/1 — unfired, so Phase 3 holds. Qatar holds Iran 'fully legally responsible' for the 7 Jul Al Rekayyat LNG-tanker strike; the GCC on max alert but no state has escalated to oil.
• SHIPPING CAUTIOUS, NOT HALTED — War-risk premiums stay elevated (~8x pre-crisis) and some lines wait out the exchange, but the corridor keeps moving a visible + dark flow. Cautious, not a full stoppage — the distinction between Phase 3 (contested) and Phase 2 (collapsed).
• IRAN RHETORIC — hot, but targets unchanged — Iran's negotiator: 'if you strike, you will be struck', demanding Iranian control of the Strait; the FM called the US 'evil and psychopathic'. Rhetoric is hot and the closure THREAT stands — but the actions remain military strikes, not a closure order or a terminal hit. Watch the gap between words and deeds.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-06-17 — Islamabad/Versailles MoU signed; toll-free 60-day reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22/26 — Switzerland Round 1 + Hormuz de-confliction -> UPGRADE to Phase 4; the glut takes over.
• 2026-07-07 — IRGC strikes three tankers - the first ceasefire-era attack; the US revokes the Iran oil waiver. Brent +3% to $74. Phase 4 -> FRAGILE.
• 2026-07-08 — TWO-WAY EXCHANGE: US strikes 80+ Iranian targets, Iran hits Gulf bases. Brent +6% to $78.78. DOWNGRADE to Phase 3 (partial reopening).
• 2026-07-09 — Contained second cycle during the mourning week: Trump says ceasefire 'over', a second US strike round, a second Iran Gulf barrage; oil well-behaved (~$80, gold fell), transits softer but not shut, no terminal struck. Phase 3 HELD.
• 2026-07-10 — Strikes continue a THIRD day past the burial (Ahvaz) — but oil FELL (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3), no terminal struck, no closure, and the Doha channel REACTIVATES (Axios: 'extensive diplomatic efforts'). Phase 3 HELD, tilting to DE-ESCALATION.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction · accelerants · reversers

• DIRECTION — TWO-SIDED but tilting to DE-ESCALATION. Kinetically the exchange is still live (a third strike day), which is why we hold Phase 3 rather than upgrade; but the market vector has turned — oil falling, premium bleeding, Doha reactivating. The swing is the next 24-48h: a confirmed talks resumption + a strike-pause re-opens the path to Phase 4.
• TIP TO PHASE 2 — A confirmed strike on a Gulf export terminal (Kharg), OR a formal Iranian closure order, OR a runaway Brent break well through $85. Any of these downgrades to Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire) and, if a terminal is hit, Phase 1. None is in evidence — and oil is FALLING, not breaking higher.
• THE OFF-RAMP — now the base case — A Qatar/Oman-brokered pause + a Doha resumption before a terminal is hit stabilises Phase 3 and bleeds the premium — and with oil already falling and envoys back in Doha, this is now the LIKELIER path. A clean pause upgrades toward Phase 4 over 2-3 weeks.

SCENARIOS — Base · Bear · Bull

• BASE — The Doha channel firms and the strikes taper off; the exchange stays on military targets, no terminal is hit, transits recover off the ~12/day soft patch; Brent eases into the low-to-mid $70s as the premium bleeds; Phase 3 holds and firms toward Phase 4.
• BEAR — The talks fail and a terminal is struck / a formal closure is declared; Phase 3 -> 2 (and 1 on a terminal hit), the dark flow halts, Brent +$10-20 to $90-100, a supply-loss shock. The tail risk while strikes continue — but the tape is not pricing it.
• BULL — A fast off-ramp: both sides declare the exchange concluded, Doha resumes a nuclear round, the fleet re-enters and the premium bleeds out; Phase 4 re-established over 2-3 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 3 (Partial reopening) HELD — now TILTING TO DE-ESCALATION. The US-Iran exchange continued past the 9 Jul Mashhad burial (a third US strike day; a 10 Jul strike near Ahvaz), so it is not a clean off-ramp — but the market is FADING the premium, not building it. Oil actually FELL (Brent -2.2% to ~$76.3, WTI ~$72) DESPITE the third strike day; no oil-export terminal has been struck (Kharg unhit); there is no formal closure; and the Doha channel is REACTIVATING (Axios: 'extensive diplomatic efforts'; US envoys met Qatar's PM). The Strait is OPEN (contested, thinner at ~12 visible transits/day + a dark flow). The tell is the tape: oil bleeding the war premium rather than spiking it. We HOLD Phase 3 and flag the de-escalation tilt. The downgrade to Phase 2 fires only if a terminal is actually struck, a formal closure is declared, or Brent breaks well through $85 — none in evidence, with oil falling. For now: fragile, holding, and tilting the right way.