Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 14 Jul 2026

READ — Openness · phase * velocity

• IS IT OPEN? CONTESTED AND DANGEROUS — BUT OPEN AND FLOWING — Iran's IRGC 'closed' (12 Jul) is a legal/rhetorical claim no Western authority recognises; CENTCOM (13-14 Jul) says the Strait 'remains open... traffic continues to flow'. Physically it is NOT shut: ~8 mb/d still transited Sunday (US DOE) and 14 vessels crossed (Kpler); liner carriers (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag) have suspended/rerouted via the Cape while tanker flow persists, much of it dark. No US escorts (Project Freedom not resumed). Reduced, contested, dark — but not near-zero.
• TRANSITS — collapsed to ~10-14/day observable; the DARK flow carries more (LOWER BOUNDS) — Kpler: 14 all-vessel crossings Sunday (4 crude tankers, ~-60% vs the prior week); 13 tankers Wed 9 Jul (vs a ~33/day norm); the weekend trough ran ~5-6/day. Against a ~100-120/day norm that is ~10-15% AIS-ON — but a FLOOR: dark transits outnumbered observable ones for three straight days (Bloomberg), and spoofing resumed. Dark share is a MAJORITY, best-estimated ~55% (range 40-60, LOW confidence — no clean scalar).
• HOW OPEN — implied ~high-60s%, physical ~40-55% — both say REDUCED, not SHUT — IMPLIED openness (pricing) sits high-$60s% — Brent ~$85 carries a wide premium, but the market prices a CONTESTED corridor, not a catastrophe (no $100+ break; Goldman: >$100 only if closure persists a month). OBSERVABLE throughput ~8 mb/d = ~40% of the ~20 mb/d all-liquids norm — FAR above the ~20% a genuine closure implies. Price and flow agree: degraded and dangerous, not shut.
• PHASE — HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). The durability composite (-1.18) sits below the -0.5 line, so the mechanical rule would TIP the model to Phase 1 — and the DOWNGRADE-RISK trigger duly fires. We OVERRIDE and HOLD Phase 2: the physical gate does not confirm closure (throughput ~8 mb/d = ~40% of normal, not the near-shut-in a Phase-1 label asserts), no oil terminal is struck, mining is armed-not-fired, and the market is not pricing closure. This is precisely the pricing-vs-physical divergence the monitor exists to surface: the diplomatic vector screams downgrade; the flow says the Strait is open. Phase-1 triggers ARMING, unfired.
• VELOCITY — SHARPLY NEGATIVE on the policy/diplomatic track — a PROPOSED 20% toll, an announced port blockade (due today), two struck tankers, a third strike night — but the PHYSICAL gate is holding far better than the rhetoric: ~8 mb/d still moves and Brent is below $90. The swing (24-72h): whether the 4 p.m. ET blockade actually BITES the flow, a terminal is struck, or a mine detonates (tip to Phase 1) — vs a Muscat off-ramp that converts the toll into a managed-fees regime and pauses the strikes.

OFFICIAL RECORD · SoH — Statements · decisions — as regards the Strait

• TWO UAE TANKERS STRUCK — the first fatality on a hull (13 Jul) — Iran struck the UAE-flagged tankers MOMBASA and AL BAHIYAH with cruise missiles in the southern lane / Omani waters — one Indian crew member killed (Mombasa), eight injured. The IRGC claimed them as 'non-compliant' ships that entered a 'mined route'; the UAE MoD condemned a 'grave violation' and 'reserves the right to respond.' A vessel strike and the first death this round — but a strike on shipping, NOT on an oil-export terminal.
• TRUMP'S PROPOSED 20% TOLL + AN ANNOUNCED BLOCKADE — proposal, not yet imposed, not yet biting the flow — Trump declared the US 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT' and PROPOSED a toll of '20% on all cargo shipped' for safe passage (all countries except Iran); CENTCOM says it will resume the maritime blockade of IRANIAN PORTS from 14 Jul 4 p.m. ET. Three distinctions matter: (i) the toll is a PROPOSAL — announced, NOT imposed, and whether/how it is implemented is unknown; (ii) a blockade of Iran's PORTS is not a closure of the Strait to all traffic; (iii) as of this read (02:00 ET) neither is in force and neither has bitten the flow data. The IMO says there is 'no legal basis' for tolling an international strait.
• MINING — ARMED, NOT FIRED (do not let it be laundered into 'closure') — The 'mining confirmed' line traces to a RECYCLED 7 Jul statement by the US CNO (Adm. Caudle) that Iran laid mines to FUNNEL shipping toward its waters/tolls — a shaping operation (laying began ~March; the US claims it destroyed 16 minelayers), NOT a sealing of the Strait, and with NO detonation on any hull, then or 12-14 Jul. This is capability/intent, not effect. The Phase-1 mining trigger is ARMED, not fired — and no fresh 12-14 Jul confirmation exists.
• CENTCOM SAYS OPEN — and ~8 mb/d still moves — CENTCOM explicitly rejects the closure: the Strait is 'open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit.' The US DOE says >8M barrels of oil transited on 12 Jul (with US area-protection, not escorts), and Kpler independently puts crude+condensate at ~8.9 mb/d through the first week of July — corroborating a corridor running at ~40-55% of normal, not a shut-in. Reroute cushions (Saudi East-West ~5 mb/d spare, UAE Fujairah ~1.5 mb/d) exist but cannot replace Hormuz.
• NO TERMINAL — the one clean Phase-1 trigger, UNFIRED — No oil-export terminal has been struck — Kharg's oil/gas infrastructure is intact, deliberately spared. A confirmed strike on Kharg / an export terminal, a mine detonation, or the blockade actually cutting flow to near-zero are the lines that would convert this contested corridor into a genuine supply loss. None is fired.
• PRICE — Brent up but NOT pricing closure; an inverted haven — Brent ~$79 Monday (+~4%, highest since 22 Jun), ~$85 Tuesday (a one-month high, +8% over two sessions) — but FAR below the $100-130 a genuine closure implies. Goldman: >$100 only IF closure persists another month; XAnalysts/IG see the earlier spike unlikely to repeat (OPEC+'s fifth hike, stranded-tanker releases, soft demand cap it). The tell: GOLD FELL (-2%) and US yields ROSE (10Y ~4.59%) — an oil-INFLATION impulse, not a flight-to-quality closure bid. War-risk hull cover ~5% of vessel value; Gulf voyage premiums into double-digit millions.
• DIPLOMACY — a live channel under a collapsing MoU — Araghchi met Oman's FM al-Busaidi in Muscat (11-13 Jul); the sides agreed to 'continue technical and political talks' on safe-passage mechanisms, with Qatar mediating in Tehran. But the June MoU is collapsing: Trump has declared the ceasefire OVER, and the proposed 20% toll repudiates the MoU's 'Hormuz toll-free 60d' — with OFAC's GL X oil-waiver (to Aug 21) now at risk. Talks run underneath the escalation; the crux is whether Muscat converts the toll into a managed-fees off-ramp or it hardens into enforcement.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-07-07/11 — IRGC tanker strikes (7 Jul) and a two-way exchange (8 Jul) end the ceasefire era; a contained mourning-week cycle, oil to ~$76; a brief 10-11 Jul pause (Araghchi to Oman). Phase 4 -> Phase 3.
• 2026-07-11/12 — The pause COLLAPSES: IRGC strikes the GFS Galaxy (11 Jul), the US runs a third strike round (~140 targets, Qeshm), and the IRGC Navy FORMALLY declares the Strait 'closed' (12 Jul). DOWNGRADE Phase 3 -> Phase 2.
• 2026-07-13 — The policy track escalates: Trump announces a 20% Hormuz toll + a resumed blockade of Iranian ports; two UAE tankers are struck (first fatality); Brent gaps ~+4% to ~$79. Phase 2 held — but the vector turns sharply negative.
• 2026-07-14 — HOLD Phase 2 (escalating). The blockade is due to resume 4 p.m. ET; Brent ~$85. But the corridor is OPEN and flowing (~8 mb/d, ~40-55% of normal), no terminal struck, mining armed-not-fired, market not pricing closure. Throughput corrected 4.5 -> ~8. Phase-1 triggers arming, unfired.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction · accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — Escalation on the policy/diplomatic track (toll, blockade, tanker deaths) sitting on top of a physical corridor that is degraded but OPEN (~40-55% of normal). The next 24-72h decide whether the escalation finally bites the flow (Phase 1) or the Muscat channel converts it into a managed regime.
• TIP TO PHASE 1 (active closure) — The 14 Jul 4 p.m. ET blockade actually cutting flow to near-zero, OR a confirmed strike on an oil-export TERMINAL (Kharg), OR a MINE DETONATION on a hull, OR a Brent break decisively through ~$90-100. Any of these turns the contested corridor into a supply-loss shock. The two US carriers in the Gulf of Oman are the accelerant.
• PATH BACK TO PHASE 3 — A Muscat understanding that converts the toll into a managed fees/insurance regime + a strike pause + Tehran softening the closure, with the blockade stood down. The channel is live — but the bar is higher now that a toll, a blockade and a collapsing MoU are all on the table.

SCENARIOS — Base · Bear * Bull

• BASE — Phase 2, escalating, holds: the blockade is enforced against Iranian-port traffic but the corridor keeps ~40-55% of flow moving (much of it dark), no terminal is struck, and Muscat talks limp on; Brent holds low-to-mid $80s with a wide premium.
• BEAR — Phase 1: the blockade bites flow to near-zero, OR a Kharg/terminal strike, OR a mine detonation halts the dark flow; Brent +$10-25 to $95-110, a genuine supply shock. The announced blockade + laid mines make this a live tail — but it is NOT the base.
• BULL — A Muscat off-ramp: the toll converted into a managed fees regime, strikes paused, the closure softened re-establishes a fragile Phase 3 and bleeds the premium. The channel is alive; the domestic-economic pull on Tehran (>100% inflation) argues it wants the off-ramp.

Bottom line. HOLD — Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, ESCALATING). We refuse to over-call closure. The policy track escalated hard — a PROPOSED 20% Hormuz toll, an announced blockade of Iranian ports (due 4 p.m. ET), two struck UAE tankers (first fatality) — but every hard PHYSICAL indicator says collapsed-but-flowing, not shut: CENTCOM says the Strait is open; ~8 mb/d still transited (US DOE + Kpler, ~40-55% of normal); no terminal is struck (Kharg intact); mining is ARMED not FIRED (a recycled 7 Jul funnel-the-ships statement, no detonation); the market is not pricing closure (Brent ~$85 vs $100-130; gold FELL). The durability vector would mechanically tip to Phase 1 — we OVERRIDE and hold Phase 2, because the physical gate and price do not confirm closure. Material correction: throughput reset from a stale 4.5 to ~8 mb/d. Phase-1 triggers ARMING, not fired. Watch the 4 p.m. ET blockade biting the flow, a Kharg strike, a mine detonation, and a Brent break through ~$90-100.