Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 4 Aug 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• IS IT OPEN? Still throttled, but OPENING — the price repriced and the flow is beginning to follow — The Aug 4 read: the corridor is still throttled but the direction has turned toward OPENING. On the 2 Aug deal framework, Monday Brent gapped DOWN ~4.8% to ~$84 (openness lifting to ~44%), and the physical is ticking up — crossings +8% w/w (~15/day off the ~7 lows), dark ~41-50%, throughput ~5 mb/d. The Two-Clock has CONVERGED — price and flow both easing. But NOT a reopening yet: the deal is unsigned and contested (Iran denies direct talks), and it is premature to call a durable shift.
• TRANSITS + THROUGHPUT (dedicated dark re-search) — ~3.2 mb/d, visible ~7/day, dark ~66%; Kharg terminals empty, the fleet re-stacking — On a fresh dark-transit re-search (2 Aug): the physical is DEGRADING again as owners pull back. Throughput ~3.2 mb/d, visible AIS-on transits ~7/day vs the ~88-138 baseline, all-traffic dark ~66% (rising) as ships go dark to cross. Kharg’s export terminals are empty; the stationary dark cluster W of Larak grew 14→18; three tankers were reported hit in/around the Strait and Iran claims it stopped two more (31 Jul, unverified). The brief thaw (Qatar’s Al Areesh LNG out 30 Jul) has REVERSED — the anchored-fleet indicator has turned back down. Still a trickle that CROSSES (CENTCOM), so not a zero — but the direction is again toward less flow, not more.
• HOW OPEN — implied ~41% SPOT / ~99% FORWARD; the price is STALE (weekend), Monday is the reprice risk — The oil-decomposition model reads implied openness ~41% at Brent ~$86.99 — but that is the 31 Jul close, a STALE weekend print that pre-dates the worst of the Aug 1-2 escalation (Iran’s closure declaration, the three-tanker attacks, the Red Sea blockade). The physical openness is lower, ~11-20% (throughput ~3.2 mb/d). So the price (~41%) sits above the flow (~15%). But the 12m FORWARD (CO12 $74.48, ~99%) already prices near-full normalization — and the late-Sunday DEAL FRAMEWORK (a US attack called off, Hormuz-opening at its centre) has FLIPPED the Monday risk: from a feared gap UP on the escalation to a gap DOWN as the war premium unwinds toward that forward — IF the framework holds. Spot ~41% converges DOWN to the forward on a deal, or UP toward the flow (~15%) if it fractures and a physical trigger fires. Monday is the reprice.
• PHASE — HOLD Phase 2: the vector escalates HARD and BROADENS, but no PHYSICAL Phase-1 trigger has fired — HOLD — Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire, RE-ESCALATING and WIDENING). The discipline is symmetric: we did not upgrade on the brief thaw, and we do not stamp Phase 1 (active closure) on rhetoric + periphery strikes. What would tip it — a confirmed strike on Kharg/an export terminal, a VERIFIED mine or a tanker SUNK, the through-corridor cut to near-zero, or a Brent close >$90-100 — has NOT fired: Iran’s ‘closed’ is a declaration CENTCOM contradicts, the three tanker ‘hits’ are unconfirmed as mines/sinkings, Kharg is empty-but-not-struck, and the price is <$90 (and stale). But the risk skew has re-armed sharply toward escalation and BROADENED geographically (US facilities in Kuwait/Jordan/Bahrain; the Red Sea re-blockaded) — and then, late Sunday, REVERSED: the US-attack-called-off + deal framework swings the skew back toward DE-ESCALATION. Symmetric discipline holds the PHYSICAL phase at 2 (no re-opening yet, no signed deal), but the near-term vector is now a Phase-3 path if the framework firms. HOLD Phase 2 — Monday the reprice; a signed deal + a re-opening tips Phase 3, a fracture + a Kharg hit / mine tips Phase 1.
• VELOCITY — the coming week’s swing is the DEAL: does the framework FIRM to a signed deal (oil down, risk-on) or FRACTURE (re-escalation)? — The vector whipsawed across Sunday — escalation by day (Iran’s ‘closed’ declaration, three tanker attacks, strikes across three Gulf states), then a sharp DE-escalation by night (the US attack called off + a deal framework centred on re-opening Hormuz). With markets closed, the PRICE clock is frozen at ~$86.99 until Monday. The coming week’s swing: (a) the framework FIRMS — a signed deal, the attack formally stood down, the Strait re-opening — and the war premium unwinds HARD (Brent toward the forward ~$74-80), pulling rates lower (the 10Y off its ~4.7% cycle high, the September-hike odds fading) and lifting risk; or (b) it FRACTURES (this cycle’s pattern — frameworks proposed then broken), the attack re-arms, and a physical trigger (Kharg/mine) tips Phase 1. Modal: the framework holds and Monday reprices oil DOWN / risk-ON — but hold Phase 2 until it is signed and the Strait re-opens.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions - as regards the Strait

• THE DEAL FRAMEWORK — Trump (2 Aug): the US + Israel CANCEL the planned attack ‘subject to a rapid DEAL’ that OPENS Hormuz and ends the nuclear threat — The decisive Aug 2 development came late: in a Truth Social post, Trump said the US — and Israel — will CANCEL the planned major attack, ‘subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.’ Iran and Gulf mediators told him the ‘perimeters of a deal’ are agreed, explicitly including the ‘Immediate, Complete and Total OPENING of the Hormuz Strait’ and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. That directly OVERTAKES the day’s escalation (Iran’s ‘closed’ declaration, the three tanker hits, the Kuwait/Jordan/Bahrain strikes). It is the Phase-3 off-ramp we have watched for — but it is a FRAMEWORK, not a signed deal, and CONDITIONAL (‘subject to a rapid deal’ — a stalled talk re-arms the attack). HOLD Phase 2 until it is signed and the Strait physically re-opens; the vector is now firmly de-escalation, and the tell to Phase 3 is the signature + the fleet clearing.
• THE STRIKE CYCLE WIDENS — a fresh US wave (29-30 Jul) and Iranian retaliation across KUWAIT, JORDAN and BAHRAIN — The brief pause is over. CENTCOM struck Iranian military surveillance, communications and air-defence sites across Iran (29-30 Jul, incl. Qeshm/Kish/Bushehr); the IRGC retaliated with strikes on US facilities in KUWAIT (the Ahmad al-Jaber airbase, a worker killed), JORDAN and BAHRAIN — a geographic BROADENING beyond the prior Iraq-militia periphery. Both sides now accuse each other of violating the fragile ceasefire. Consequential, but still PERIPHERY with respect to the corridor: none of it is a strike on a Hormuz oil-export terminal or a verified mine on a hull. The theater is wider and hotter; the Hormuz physical trigger is still, narrowly, unfired.
• THREE TANKERS HIT IN/AROUND HORMUZ — attacks up, but not (yet) confirmed as mines or a sinking — Maritime-security sources report attacks against three tankers in or around the Strait, and Iran claims it stopped two vessels exiting (plus four turned back) on 31 Jul — the latter unverified. Rising hull attacks throttle flow and lift war-risk, and they are why throughput is degrading (~3.2 mb/d) and owners are running dark (~66%). But the Phase-1 line is specific: a MINE detonation, a tanker SUNK, or an export TERMINAL struck. ‘Attacks on three tankers’ of unspecified method, with the corridor still passing ships (CENTCOM), is an intensifying siege — Phase 2 — not a confirmed closure. If any of the three is confirmed mined or sunk, that changes.
• KHARG — the one clean closure trigger, still UNFIRED (terminals empty, not struck) — Kharg Island — the single node for ~90-96% of Iran’s crude exports — has empty export terminals (no loadings) but has NOT been struck. An empty terminal is the siege throttling Iran’s own exports; a STRUCK terminal is the corridor-level supply shock. You do not leave Kharg standing if the aim is to shut the Strait. Its survival remains the strongest single piece of evidence that this is a throttled siege, not a closure — the day Kharg is hit or a mine detonates is the day the Phase-1 call flips.
• THE RED SEA RE-ARMS — Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers + a naval-blockade declaration; the SECOND chokepoint back in play — The second front has re-lit: Yemen’s Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and announced a naval blockade on Saudi ships. That re-arms the two-chokepoint premium that drove the ~$100 print on 24 Jul — the risk that Hormuz throttling AND a Red Sea blockade squeeze the GCC’s bypass routes simultaneously. It is again a live driver rather than background. A confirmed hit on a Saudi bypass artery (Petroline/Yanbu) alongside the Hormuz escalation is the combination that would push oil decisively toward the bank tails (conditional on an actual shut-in).
• DIPLOMACY — the 10-day ceasefire is being VIOLATED by both sides and remains UNSIGNED; Trump ‘losing faith’ — The off-ramp has stalled and is fraying. The 10-day ceasefire (Qatar/Egypt/Pakistan/Oman) to reopen both lanes is UNSIGNED, and both sides now accuse each other of violating the pre-existing truce. The US line is a PERMANENT reopening of Hormuz; Iran’s is approved-routes-and-tolls — the two are apart on exactly the managed-corridor terms. Washington signals it is ‘losing faith’ while keeping the door open. The end-state the channel still points to — a managed-corridor / fees regime reached from Iranian weakness — is intact but has slipped further out; the near-term vector is escalation, not signature. Watch for a signed text (Phase-3 tell) or a Kharg hit (Phase-1 tell).

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-07-20 — The OIL RE-BIDS — Brent GAPS to $88.10 in steep backwardation; the siege’s 6th day. Throughput ~6.8 mb/d, Kharg spared. STILL Phase 2: $88 < the ~$95 trigger.
• 2026-07-23/24 — The SECOND CHOKEPOINT + the $100 print: Houthis strike the Saudi tankers Encelia + Layla, Saudi pauses Red Sea oil; Brent touches ~$100.35 then eases to ~$97.3. Hormuz’s own flow held ~5 mb/d — a two-chokepoint premium, not a Hormuz shut-in. HOLD Phase 2.
• 2026-07-26/28 — The STRIKE PAUSE, then a FRACTURE: Brent tumbles ~6% to ~$88 as the war premium unwinds (26-27 Jul); then on 28 Jul the IRGC fires ballistic missiles at US forces (INTERCEPTED) and the US+Saudi strike back. Physical unchanged (~4 mb/d, fleet stacked). HOLD Phase 2, risk re-arming.
• 2026-07-29 — PERIPHERY ESCALATION: a fresh intercepted barrage and the first US+SAUDI strikes inside eastern Iraq (~20 killed). But a 5th night with no strike on Iran soil, Kharg untouched. HOLD Phase 2 — periphery, no Hormuz trigger.
• 2026-07-30/31 — A brief THAW: the first tankers trickle out (Qatar’s Al Areesh LNG exits 30 Jul, an ADNOC carrier reappears, US Navy escorts) and Brent eases to ~$86.99 (openness ~41%). Read at the time as the flow finally following the price — but it proved a 24-hour window.
• 2026-08-01 — The THAW REVERSES: a fresh US strike wave (29-30 Jul, Qeshm/Kish/Bushehr) and Iran’s retaliation onto Kuwait’s al-Jaber airbase (31 Jul, a worker killed) re-arm the conflict; the ceasefire stalls (Trump ‘losing faith’). Brent holds ~$86.99 — the market not pricing closure. HOLD Phase 2, skew back to escalation.
• 2026-08-02 (AM) — re-escalation broadens — Iran’s Strait Authority declares Hormuz ‘closed until further notice’ (CENTCOM says ships still transit); three tankers hit in/around the Strait; IRGC strikes US facilities across Kuwait/Jordan/Bahrain; the Red Sea re-arms (Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers + a blockade). Physical degrades to ~3.2 mb/d (dark ~66%, ~7 transits/day), but the corridor still passes ships and Kharg is unstruck. HOLD Phase 2 — the vector escalates hard.
• 2026-08-02 (PM) — the DEAL FRAMEWORK flips the vector — Late Sunday the vector REVERSES: Trump (Truth Social) says the US AND ISRAEL will CANCEL the planned major attack ‘subject to a rapid DEAL,’ whose agreed perimeters explicitly include the ‘Immediate, Complete and Total OPENING of the Hormuz Strait’ and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat — a US strike called off, the off-ramp we have watched for now live. A FRAMEWORK, not a signed deal, and conditional. HOLD Phase 2 on the physical; the vector swings to a Phase-3 path. Monday reprices oil DOWN / rates lower / risk-on IF it holds; a fracture re-arms the attack.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — the vector FLIPPED late Sunday to DE-ESCALATION; the coming week is deal-firms vs deal-fractures — Sunday whipsawed — escalation by day (widened strikes, Iran’s ‘closed’ declaration, the Red Sea re-arming), then a sharp DE-escalation by night (the US attack called off + a framework centred on re-opening Hormuz). The PHYSICAL corridor is unchanged (~3.2 mb/d, still passing ships, Kharg standing), so HOLD Phase 2 — but the near-term vector is now a Phase-3 path. The frame remains WHOSE CLOCK RUNS OUT FIRST: Iran’s finite arsenal + the bypass build-out drain its leverage, and the 12m curve (CO12 ~$74-75, ~99%) already prices near-full normalization — which a deal simply pulls forward. The coming week’s swing: the framework FIRMS (a signed deal + the Strait re-opening → de-escalation, oil down, risk-on) or FRACTURES (the rapid deal stalls, the attack re-arms → a Kharg/mine Phase-1). Modal now: the framework holds and Monday reprices lower — but not confirmed until it is signed.
• TIP TO PHASE 1 (active closure) — A confirmed strike on an oil-export TERMINAL (Kharg), OR a MINE DETONATION / a tanker SUNK, OR the through-corridor cut to near-zero (CENTCOM reversing its ‘still transiting’ read), OR a Brent close decisively through ~$90-100. Any converts a throttled Iranian-export siege into a corridor supply-loss shock. Per the shifting-power tail, a DECLINING Iran is the one most tempted to a use-it-or-lose-it slip — the tail is highest where it looks managed.
• PATH BACK TO PHASE 3 — A visible settlement-from-weakness signal: a SIGNED ceasefire text, Tehran softening on the routes/tolls dispute, or a fees-regime understanding via the (still-live) Muscat channel, with the blockade eased and the fleet clearing. This is the medium-term base case — but on a 6-18 month horizon as the leverage transfer completes, not a this-week off-ramp, and it has slipped further out on the Aug 1-2 escalation.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — the framework HOLDS (de-escalation) — The attack stays called off and the deal framework firms: Brent gaps DOWN Monday as the war premium unwinds toward the forward (~$78-82 spot, converging on the 12m ~$75), rates fall in sympathy (the 10Y off its ~4.7% cycle high, the September-hike odds fading), risk-on. The Strait re-opening begins on implementation; the fleet starts to clear. HOLD Phase 2 on the physical until the corridor actually re-opens, but the vector is now a Phase-3 path — the off-ramp we have watched for, finally live.
• BEAR — the framework FRACTURES (re-escalation) — The ‘rapid deal’ stalls and the attack re-arms (this cycle’s pattern — frameworks proposed then broken); a Kharg/terminal strike, a mine detonation or a tanker sunk, or the Red Sea blockade + Hormuz throttle squeezing the bypass — halts flow → Phase 1; Brent +$10-25 to $95-115, a genuine supply shock. The shifting-power tail (a declining Iran’s use-it-or-lose-it slip) keeps this live, but the late-Sunday off-ramp makes it no longer the base.
• BULL — a signed deal + the Strait RE-OPENS (fast normalization) — The framework converts quickly: a signed text, the attack formally stood down, the ‘Immediate, Complete and Total OPENING’ of Hormuz delivered, the nuclear file resolved — Phase 3→4. The premium bleeds out entirely, Brent toward and below the forward (~$74), the fleet clears, transits rebuild. Iran’s >60% inflation argues it wants the off-ramp; the 12m curve already prices the normalization — a deal simply pulls it forward.

Bottom line. HOLD — Phase 2, but the DE-ESCALATION is now PRICED. The 2 Aug deal framework (US attack called off, the Strait to re-open) did what we flagged: Monday 3 Aug Brent GAPPED DOWN ~4.8% to a 3-week low ~$84 (intraday −7%), the 10Y fell off its cycle high, risk rallied hard (S&P +1.5%, Dow a record, Amazon $3trn). The physical is ticking up — crossings +8% w/w (~15/day off the ~7 lows), dark ~41-50%, throughput ~5 mb/d — but PREMATURE to call a reopening. The deal is UNSIGNED and CONTESTED: Iran DENIES direct US talks (only an Oman ‘safe route’ channel), Trump calls Tehran ‘duplicitous,’ Iran says Hormuz ‘never returns to pre-war’; Treasury flags a deal ‘Tue/Wed.’ HOLD Phase 2 on the physical (no signed deal, corridor still throttled/half-dark); the vector is firmly Phase-3 — the price repriced, the flow beginning to follow. Tell to Phase 3: the deal SIGNED + the fleet clearing + escorts standing down. Tail: the contested talks fracture (→ a Kharg/mine Phase-1). Forward (CO12 ~$73, ~99%) prices normalization.