Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 8 Aug 2026

READ — Openness * phase * velocity

• IS IT OPEN? The PRICE RE-BIDS on HAWKISH leaked terms — oil rose even THROUGH a dovish payrolls shock; still physically CLOSED — The 8 Aug read: the reopening trade has REVERSED, not because the flow moved but because the deal’s LEAKED TERMS turned hawkish-for-flows (US/Israel vessel ban, a 20% cargo fine, a US-blockade-lift precondition, no parliament clearance). So Brent kept building to the low-mid $80s ($85) and GOLD hit a record ($4,350) — rising EVEN as a soft US payrolls print (-23k) took the Fed hike off the table and rallied bonds. The TWIN BID (bonds + oil/gold) is the tell. The FLOW is unchanged and STILL CLOSED. NOT a reopening until the deal SIGNS and the mines clear.
• TRANSITS + THROUGHPUT (dedicated 8 Aug dark re-search) — ~8 vessels/day, ~15.8 mb/d STRANDED, dark ~57%; the largest oil disruption in history — On a fresh dark-transit re-search (Lloyd’s List Intelligence / AXSMarine / Windward): the Strait is ALL-BUT-CLOSED — closure day ~160. Only ~8 vessels crossed on 5 Aug (5 tankers) vs >100/day pre-conflict; the IEA cites ~15.8 mb/d ‘stranded’ — the largest oil-supply disruption in market history. All-traffic dark share ~57% (off the 65% May peak). The mines are the gate: the interim terms clear the median lane within 30 days, but the deal is UNSIGNED and no clearing is confirmed started (Iran only ‘weighing’ letting Europeans clear) — owners stay out.
• HOW OPEN — implied ~47% SPOT / ~99% FORWARD; the PRICE re-bids as the leaked terms turn hawkish — The oil-decomposition model reads implied openness ~47% at Brent ~$85 (down from ~62% at ~$80 on 6 Aug) — the reopening trade UNWINDING as the leaked draft reads hawkish-for-flows and the signature keeps slipping. The PHYSICAL openness is far lower, ~8% (~8 vessels/day, ~15.8 mb/d stranded). The 12m FORWARD (CO12 ~$74, ~99%) still prices near-full normalization. The read: a SIGNED deal + the mines cleared is the confirmation — and, on the leaked terms, even a signature may not deliver a CLEAN reopening (a managed, tolled, US-excluded corridor).
• PHASE — HOLD Phase 2: the deal STALLED unsigned, but no PHYSICAL Phase-1 trigger has fired — HOLD — Phase 2 (fragile, deal-stalled). The discipline is symmetric: we did not upgrade to Phase 3 on the near-deal optimism, and we do not tip Phase 1 (active closure) on the stalled talks. What would tip it — a confirmed strike on Kharg/an export terminal, a VERIFIED mine or a tanker SUNK, the through-corridor cut to near-zero, or a Brent close >$90-100 — has NOT fired: no new physical event since the 31 Jul tanker attacks, Kharg empty-but-not-struck, Brent $79.80. The near-term vector remains a Phase-3 PATH conditional on a signature — but the Wed/Thu target came and went UNSIGNED, so the price re-bid (Brent +2.3%, gold +2.3%) as some reopening optimism unwound. A slipped signature is a WARNING, not a trigger: a signed deal + a re-opening tips Phase 3, a fracture + a Kharg hit / mine tips Phase 1. HOLD Phase 2.
• VELOCITY — the swing is the SIGNATURE: does the Iran-Oman arrangement FIRM to a signed text (oil down, risk-on) or keep SLIPPING / FRACTURE? — The Wed/Thu (5-6 Aug) target came and went UNSIGNED. Rubio: ‘progress but not finality’; Bessent floats consensus ‘today or tomorrow.’ What is taking shape is a NARROW Iran-Oman navigation channel — the coordinates agreed, a joint statement ‘in the final stage’ — NOT the broad US-brokered package (no direct US-Iran talks; Iran negotiates solely with Oman). Live sticking points, all unresolved: whether the IRGC accepts reduced control of the Strait and its interception rights, whether reopening extends to foreign/US naval ships, how much cargo/destination info Iran can demand, and whether it lifts the US blockade + restores oil-export waivers. Modal is still a signature within days (Iran’s >60% inflation wants the off-ramp), but each slip RE-BIDS the premium (Brent +2.3%, gold +2.3% on 6 Aug). HOLD Phase 2 until it is signed and the Strait physically re-opens.

OFFICIAL RECORD * SoH — Statements * decisions - as regards the Strait

• THE DEAL — STALLED UNSIGNED on the Wed/Thu target (6 Aug): a NARROW Iran-Oman navigation arrangement, not the broad US package — As of 6 Aug the interim deal is NOT signed — the Bessent/Trump ‘Wednesday or Thursday’ (5-6 Aug) signature did not land. Rubio calls it ‘progress but not finality’; Bessent floats consensus ‘today or tomorrow.’ Iran and Oman have agreed the geographical COORDINATES of a navigable channel and a joint statement is ‘in the final stage,’ but there are NO direct US-Iran talks (Iran negotiates solely with Oman), and what is materialising is a NARROW Iran-Oman navigation arrangement — NOT the broader US-brokered ceasefire/nuclear package Washington wanted (one wire’s analysis: ‘an agreement on the Strait is taking shape — but not one Trump wants’). Live sticking points, all unresolved: whether the IRGC accepts reduced control of the Strait and its interception rights; whether reopening extends to foreign/US naval ships; how much cargo/destination info Iran can demand; whether it lifts the US blockade + restores oil-export waivers. The off-ramp is still the base case (Iran’s >60% inflation wants it) but has SLIPPED past its target date — HOLD Phase 2 until a signed text + the Strait physically re-opens.
• THE STRIKE CYCLE WIDENS — a fresh US wave (29-30 Jul) and Iranian retaliation across KUWAIT, JORDAN and BAHRAIN — The brief pause is over. CENTCOM struck Iranian military surveillance, communications and air-defence sites across Iran (29-30 Jul, incl. Qeshm/Kish/Bushehr); the IRGC retaliated with strikes on US facilities in KUWAIT (the Ahmad al-Jaber airbase, a worker killed), JORDAN and BAHRAIN — a geographic BROADENING beyond the prior Iraq-militia periphery. Both sides now accuse each other of violating the fragile ceasefire. Consequential, but still PERIPHERY with respect to the corridor: none of it is a strike on a Hormuz oil-export terminal or a verified mine on a hull. The theater is wider and hotter; the Hormuz physical trigger is still, narrowly, unfired.
• THREE TANKERS HIT IN/AROUND HORMUZ — attacks up, but not (yet) confirmed as mines or a sinking — Maritime-security sources report attacks against three tankers in or around the Strait, and Iran claims it stopped two vessels exiting (plus four turned back) on 31 Jul — the latter unverified. Rising hull attacks throttle flow and lift war-risk, and they are why throughput is degrading (~3.2 mb/d) and owners are running dark (~66%). But the Phase-1 line is specific: a MINE detonation, a tanker SUNK, or an export TERMINAL struck. ‘Attacks on three tankers’ of unspecified method, with the corridor still passing ships (CENTCOM), is an intensifying siege — Phase 2 — not a confirmed closure. If any of the three is confirmed mined or sunk, that changes.
• KHARG — the one clean closure trigger, still UNFIRED (terminals empty, not struck) — Kharg Island — the single node for ~90-96% of Iran’s crude exports — has empty export terminals (no loadings) but has NOT been struck. An empty terminal is the siege throttling Iran’s own exports; a STRUCK terminal is the corridor-level supply shock. You do not leave Kharg standing if the aim is to shut the Strait. Its survival remains the strongest single piece of evidence that this is a throttled siege, not a closure — the day Kharg is hit or a mine detonates is the day the Phase-1 call flips.
• THE RED SEA RE-ARMS — Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers + a naval-blockade declaration; the SECOND chokepoint back in play — The second front has re-lit: Yemen’s Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and announced a naval blockade on Saudi ships. That re-arms the two-chokepoint premium that drove the ~$100 print on 24 Jul — the risk that Hormuz throttling AND a Red Sea blockade squeeze the GCC’s bypass routes simultaneously. It is again a live driver rather than background. A confirmed hit on a Saudi bypass artery (Petroline/Yanbu) alongside the Hormuz escalation is the combination that would push oil decisively toward the bank tails (conditional on an actual shut-in).
• DIPLOMACY — the 10-day ceasefire is being VIOLATED by both sides and remains UNSIGNED; Trump ‘losing faith’ — The off-ramp has stalled and is fraying. The 10-day ceasefire (Qatar/Egypt/Pakistan/Oman) to reopen both lanes is UNSIGNED, and both sides now accuse each other of violating the pre-existing truce. The US line is a PERMANENT reopening of Hormuz; Iran’s is approved-routes-and-tolls — the two are apart on exactly the managed-corridor terms. Washington signals it is ‘losing faith’ while keeping the door open. The end-state the channel still points to — a managed-corridor / fees regime reached from Iranian weakness — is intact but has slipped further out; the near-term vector is escalation, not signature. Watch for a signed text (Phase-3 tell) or a Kharg hit (Phase-1 tell).

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-07-20 — The OIL RE-BIDS — Brent GAPS to $88.10 in steep backwardation; the siege’s 6th day. Throughput ~6.8 mb/d, Kharg spared. STILL Phase 2: $88 < the ~$95 trigger.
• 2026-07-23/24 — The SECOND CHOKEPOINT + the $100 print: Houthis strike the Saudi tankers Encelia + Layla, Saudi pauses Red Sea oil; Brent touches ~$100.35 then eases to ~$97.3. Hormuz’s own flow held ~5 mb/d — a two-chokepoint premium, not a Hormuz shut-in. HOLD Phase 2.
• 2026-07-26/28 — The STRIKE PAUSE, then a FRACTURE: Brent tumbles ~6% to ~$88 as the war premium unwinds (26-27 Jul); then on 28 Jul the IRGC fires ballistic missiles at US forces (INTERCEPTED) and the US+Saudi strike back. Physical unchanged (~4 mb/d, fleet stacked). HOLD Phase 2, risk re-arming.
• 2026-07-29 — PERIPHERY ESCALATION: a fresh intercepted barrage and the first US+SAUDI strikes inside eastern Iraq (~20 killed). But a 5th night with no strike on Iran soil, Kharg untouched. HOLD Phase 2 — periphery, no Hormuz trigger.
• 2026-07-30/31 — A brief THAW: the first tankers trickle out (Qatar’s Al Areesh LNG exits 30 Jul, an ADNOC carrier reappears, US Navy escorts) and Brent eases to ~$86.99 (openness ~41%). Read at the time as the flow finally following the price — but it proved a 24-hour window.
• 2026-08-01 — The THAW REVERSES: a fresh US strike wave (29-30 Jul, Qeshm/Kish/Bushehr) and Iran’s retaliation onto Kuwait’s al-Jaber airbase (31 Jul, a worker killed) re-arm the conflict; the ceasefire stalls (Trump ‘losing faith’). Brent holds ~$86.99 — the market not pricing closure. HOLD Phase 2, skew back to escalation.
• 2026-08-02 (AM) — re-escalation broadens — Iran’s Strait Authority declares Hormuz ‘closed until further notice’ (CENTCOM says ships still transit); three tankers hit in/around the Strait; IRGC strikes US facilities across Kuwait/Jordan/Bahrain; the Red Sea re-arms (Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers + a blockade). Physical degrades to ~3.2 mb/d (dark ~66%, ~7 transits/day), but the corridor still passes ships and Kharg is unstruck. HOLD Phase 2 — the vector escalates hard.
• 2026-08-02 (PM) — the DEAL FRAMEWORK flips the vector — Late Sunday the vector REVERSES: Trump (Truth Social) says the US AND ISRAEL will CANCEL the planned major attack ‘subject to a rapid DEAL,’ whose agreed perimeters explicitly include the ‘Immediate, Complete and Total OPENING of the Hormuz Strait’ and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat — a US strike called off, the off-ramp we have watched for now live. A FRAMEWORK, not a signed deal, and conditional. HOLD Phase 2 on the physical; the vector swings to a Phase-3 path.
• 2026-08-03/05 — the reopening PRICED, then the AI-tail wobbles — The framework repriced HARD: Brent crashed ~5% two sessions running to $78 (5 Aug), the US 10Y eased to 4.60% and the 2Y to 4.20%, the S&P set a store record 7,736 and the AI/semis complex ripped (NDX +2.47% on 5 Aug, AMD’s beat rewarded intraday). The PRICE raced ahead of a FLOW that never reopened — the Strait stayed shut (~2 transits/day). HOLD Phase 2 (deal unsigned).
• 2026-08-06 — the deal STALLS; the price RE-BIDS toward the flow — The Wed/Thu signature SLIPS (Rubio ‘not finality’; a narrow Iran-Oman channel, not the US package). Brent RE-BIDS +2.3% to $79.80 and gold +2.3% as the reopening trade partly unwinds and a weak US ADP (+44k) adds a haven bid; the US AI-tail reverses (AMD gives back -7%, quantum -25%, Alphabet -4%) while NVDA holds +3.4% on the H200 China approval. The Strait is STILL shut (closure day 158, ~2 transits/day, 13 dark/24h), no new physical event. HOLD Phase 2 — the signature is the swing.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction * accelerants * reversers

• DIRECTION — the vector FLIPPED late Sunday to DE-ESCALATION; the coming week is deal-firms vs deal-fractures — Sunday whipsawed — escalation by day (widened strikes, Iran’s ‘closed’ declaration, the Red Sea re-arming), then a sharp DE-escalation by night (the US attack called off + a framework centred on re-opening Hormuz). The PHYSICAL corridor is unchanged (~3.2 mb/d, still passing ships, Kharg standing), so HOLD Phase 2 — but the near-term vector is now a Phase-3 path. The frame remains WHOSE CLOCK RUNS OUT FIRST: Iran’s finite arsenal + the bypass build-out drain its leverage, and the 12m curve (CO12 ~$74-75, ~99%) already prices near-full normalization — which a deal simply pulls forward. The coming week’s swing: the framework FIRMS (a signed deal + the Strait re-opening → de-escalation, oil down, risk-on) or FRACTURES (the rapid deal stalls, the attack re-arms → a Kharg/mine Phase-1). Modal still a signature within days, but the Wed/Thu target slipped and the price re-bid (Brent +2.3%) — not confirmed until it is signed and the Strait re-opens.
• TIP TO PHASE 1 (active closure) — A confirmed strike on an oil-export TERMINAL (Kharg), OR a MINE DETONATION / a tanker SUNK, OR the through-corridor cut to near-zero (CENTCOM reversing its ‘still transiting’ read), OR a Brent close decisively through ~$90-100. Any converts a throttled Iranian-export siege into a corridor supply-loss shock. Per the shifting-power tail, a DECLINING Iran is the one most tempted to a use-it-or-lose-it slip — the tail is highest where it looks managed.
• PATH BACK TO PHASE 3 — A visible settlement-from-weakness signal: a SIGNED ceasefire text, Tehran softening on the routes/tolls dispute, or a fees-regime understanding via the (still-live) Muscat channel, with the blockade eased and the fleet clearing. This is the medium-term base case — but on a 6-18 month horizon as the leverage transfer completes, not a this-week off-ramp, and it has slipped further out on the Aug 1-2 escalation.

SCENARIOS — Base * Bear * Bull

• BASE — the arrangement SIGNS (de-escalation) — The Iran-Oman navigation arrangement is signed within days and implementation begins: the war premium bleeds back out (Brent back toward $76-78 spot, converging on the 12m ~$73), rates ease in sympathy (the 10Y below 4.60%, the September-hike odds fading), risk-on. The Strait re-opening begins as the median-lane mines are cleared; the fleet starts to return. HOLD Phase 2 on the physical until the corridor actually re-opens, but the vector is a Phase-3 path — the off-ramp we have watched for, now just past its first (missed) target date.
• BEAR — the framework FRACTURES (re-escalation) — The ‘rapid deal’ stalls and the attack re-arms (this cycle’s pattern — frameworks proposed then broken); a Kharg/terminal strike, a mine detonation or a tanker sunk, or the Red Sea blockade + Hormuz throttle squeezing the bypass — halts flow → Phase 1; Brent +$10-25 to $95-115, a genuine supply shock. The shifting-power tail (a declining Iran’s use-it-or-lose-it slip) keeps this live, but the late-Sunday off-ramp makes it no longer the base.
• BULL — a signed deal + the Strait RE-OPENS (fast normalization) — The framework converts quickly: a signed text, the attack formally stood down, the ‘Immediate, Complete and Total OPENING’ of Hormuz delivered, the nuclear file resolved — Phase 3→4. The premium bleeds out entirely, Brent toward and below the forward (~$74), the fleet clears, transits rebuild. Iran’s >60% inflation argues it wants the off-ramp; the 12m curve already prices the normalization — a deal simply pulls it forward.

Bottom line. HOLD — Phase 2; the DEAL STAYS UNSIGNED and its LEAKED TERMS turn HAWKISH-for-flows — the war premium kept BUILDING even through a dovish payrolls shock. Five days past its Wed/Thu target the Iran-Oman channel is STILL unsigned (Rubio ‘progress not finality’), and the leaked draft is TOUGHER than first priced — it would BAR US and Israeli vessels, FINE violators 20% of cargo value, has NOT cleared Iran’s parliament, and Iran won’t reopen until the US lifts its port blockade. So Brent RE-BID to the low-mid $80s ($85) and GOLD hit a record ($4,350) EVEN AS a soft US payrolls print (-23k) pulled the Fed-hike premium out — the TWIN BID in bonds and commodities is the tell: Fed-relief and Hormuz-supply-risk priced at once. The PHYSICAL Strait is ALL-BUT-CLOSED (~8 vessels/day, 5 tankers; ~15.8 mb/d ‘stranded’ — IEA the largest oil disruption in history; dark ~57%), no mine-clearing confirmed started (a deal deliverable; unsigned), no new physical event 6-8 Aug. HOLD Phase 2 until it SIGNS + the mines clear. CAUTIONARY TAIL: the June deal signed (19 Jun) then COLLAPSED after 21 days. Forward (CO12 ~$74, ~99%) still prices normalization.