The Read
The read (Tuesday 4 Aug, on the 3 Aug 17-YEAR HIGH): the risk-on from the 2 Aug Iran deal framework (oil crashing, US markets to records) carried Athens to its highest close since Nov 2009 — the General Index +1.64% to 2,611.77 on 3 Aug (YTD +23%), the banking index +2.43% to an 11-year high (3,036). The banks LED on their record H1 numbers (all four beat/raised, ~€2.5bn aggregate) and a wave of sell-side upgrades — a domestic securities house sees the biggest upside in Alpha (~50%), Eurobank +32%, NBG +28%; another bulge-bracket lifted Piraeus (TP €11.50) and Eurobank (€5.10); the sector is returning >€3bn in dividends + buybacks and moving to "phase two." Piraeus touched €10.00 (+4.17%, absorbing a €0.40 capital return), Alpha €4.39 (+2.9%, a new high), NBG €16.45, Eurobank €4.50. Motor Oil printed a HISTORIC HIGH €52.30 (+2.95%) — the refiners holding despite the oil-peace worry, on still-elevated diesel/jet cracks (govt fuel discount runs to 31 Aug). The aluminium/cables complex led (ElvalHalcor +4.14%, Viohalco +4.07%, Cenergy +2.15%); Aktor €10.90 (+4.61%), Metlen €46.90 (+2.2%). Tuesday consolidated thin (+0.20% to 2,616.88, ~€19m turnover). Macro firm: Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (3rd straight acceleration), H1 primary surplus €4.49bn (FY >€10bn), the 10Y GGB 3.81%. Ahead: Coca-Cola HBC + Metlen H1 both 6 Aug. Politics commanding for ND into the August polling blackout. See the monitor overleaf.
Synthesis
The strategic read — Athens closed the week at a 17-year high on a bank-led advance; the H1 season is COMPLETE with records, and the banks now trade their own numbers against a mixed global tape (a hawkish Fed + a weekend Iran re-escalation).
• (i) The H1 catalyst is COMPLETE — records across the board. All four majors beat and raised: Piraeus €617m (+€2.0bn NII upgrade), Eurobank ~€776m (RoTBV ~16.6%, FY guidance raised to ~17%), NBG €661m (EPS €1.45, RoTE 15.5%), and Alpha ~€497m (Q2 adj. PAT €275m +24.6% QoQ, RoTBV 15.5%, FY EPS guide raised to €0.41, a 55% payout). The ATHEX rewarded it — a 17-year high, YTD +21% — and Piraeus touched €10 for the first time since 2021. The demand-side proof is IN; the re-rating is PROVEN, not just priced.
• (ii) The banks now trade their own numbers — against a mixed global tape. The cross-currents: the US AI-capex verdict finished SPLIT (Amazon rewarded, Apple punished), the Fed stayed hawkish (a 9-3 hold, the 10Y at cycle highs 4.7%), and over the weekend Iran WHIPSAWED — a day of re-escalation OVERTAKEN late Sunday by a DEAL FRAMEWORK (Trump calling off the attack for a rapid deal that OPENS Hormuz), flipping the vector to de-escalation. If the framework holds that turns from a risk-off tail into a risk-ON tailwind (lower oil, lower rates) into Monday — but a fracture re-arms the attack; the domestic re-rating is the anchor either way. €1bn for the ~€3bn 2026-31 plan). The deepening-capital-market thesis, validated at a cyclical price.
• (iii) Aktor's €650m SCI absorbed cleanly. The year's largest ATHEX raise priced at €11.25 and the enlarged float listed with an orderly ex-rights adjustment — demand ran 3.5-4x / €2.3bn, €650m raised (no upsize), 57.78m new shares, a €300m bond leg alongside (
• Net (Delphic view): the medium-term re-rating is now PROVEN — a record H1 season across all four banks, an index at a 17-year high, YTD +21%. The swing is near-term and EXTERNAL: Monday's oil reprice on the late-Sunday Iran DEAL FRAMEWORK (oil DOWN / rates down / risk-on IF it holds; a fracture the tail) and the 10Y at cycle highs are the near-term swing for the high-beta names — but the Greek banks now trade their own numbers, and those numbers are records.
• (iv) Politics — both threads still cut the government's way. Mitsotakis will roll the ND pre-election programme at the September ΔΕΘ (aimed at spring 2027) with a >€2bn TIF package; the EPPO OPEKEPE probe stays BOUNDED (22 suspects incl. 4 sitting ND MPs charged 16 Jul; no new procedural vote, no cabinet/PM reach). The newest poll — Interview (21 Jul, raw) ND 26.8 / ELAS 15.8 / PASOK 10.1, ND +11 — keeps ND in the high-20s cluster; base case an ND-LED government.