The Read
The read (Saturday 8 Aug, on the Fri 7 Aug close): Athens held its 17-year high through a strong corporate season and a whippy global week — the General Index closed Fri at 2,615 (+0.25%), a 5th straight close above 2,600. The week +1.7% (banks +2.5% to 11-year highs), YTD +23.3%. Friday was mixed under the surface: OTE +2.0%, Eurobank +1.4% and Alpha +1.0% up; Piraeus €9.95 (-0.2%, back below €10) and National -0.9% down; GEK Terna -1.7%, Metlen ~€50 (-0.2%) into the close. The corporate season CLOSED STRONG: Metlen reported a clean H1 BEAT (6 Aug: EBITDA €550m +23%, net €313m +23%, leverage 1.7x, guidance reaffirmed-not-raised), popping toward €52 intraday then profit-taking as short interest was cut; a domestic securities house RAISED its target to €64.40 (40% upside) on the not-yet-priced gallium/critical-metals optionality. New in the week: Aktor agreed to buy 75% of Helector + Thalis (€300m, circular economy). The GLOBAL tape: a dovish US payrolls PIVOT (NFP -23k → risk to records) but a TWIN BID (oil and gold re-bid on the unsigned/hawkish Iran deal) — a mixed tailwind for the high-beta names. Macro benign (July HICP 2.7%, PMI 54.3). Politics: the Western Attica wildfire relief; polling FROZEN (August blackout). See the monitor overleaf.
Synthesis
The strategic read — the re-rating is PROVEN across a record bank + corporate season; Athens holds its 17-yr high as the global tape turns two-way (a dovish payrolls pivot, but a twin bid on the hawkish Iran deal).
• (i) The season delivered, and the banks hold their records. All four banks beat and raised (Piraeus €617m, Eurobank ~€776m, NBG €661m, Alpha €497m); the ATHEX sits at a 17-yr high (GI 2,615, YTD +23.3%), banks at 11-yr highs. The banks now trade their own (record) numbers; Friday's mixed tape (Eurobank/Alpha up, Piraeus/National soft) is rotation, not a reversal. €300m) extends the circular-economy/waste-water pole.
• (ii) The corporate leg is validated name by name. Metlen a clean H1 BEAT (EBITDA €550m, leverage 1.7x; the customary guidance sandbag, gallium the free option); Coca-Cola HBC beat-and-raised; Cenergy a record H1 + a €1.15bn ADMIE interconnection framework; PPC reaffirmed (DPS €0.80). And the capital-formation supercycle keeps consolidating: Aktor–Helector/Thalis (
• (iii) The global tape is two-way. A dovish US payrolls PIVOT (NFP -23k took the Fed hike off, risk to records) is a tailwind for the high-beta Greek names; but the TWIN BID (oil and gold re-bid to ~$85 / a record ~$4,350 on the unsigned, hawkish-termed Iran deal) is a caution. The domestic re-rating is the anchor either way; HOLD Phase 2 on Hormuz.
• (iv) Politics — WILDFIRE RELIEF, not fiscal or scandal. The Western Attica/Boeotia relief (111,000 stremmata; €1,000/sqm rebuild, compensation; HELLENiQ donated €25m; studies within Aug, works from mid-Sept) is executing. The September ΔΕΘ package (€1.9bn — τεκμήρια abolition, τέλος-επιτηδεύματος removal) is locked for the TIF. OPEKEPE/EPPO dormant. Polling FROZEN (August blackout) — the last clean read is Marc (20-23 Jul): ND 30.8 / ΕΛΑΣ 16.8 / PASOK 11.0. Base case: an ND-LED government.