Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 9 Jul 2026

READ — Openness · phase · velocity

• IS IT OPEN? YES — CONTESTED AND SOFTER, BUT NOT SHUT — The Strait is open and moving ships — visible transits ~15/day (down from the ~35-45 early-July plateau on mourning-week caution and war-risk) plus a dark flow, no terminal struck and no formal closure. Some trackers flash 'closed' as an editorial read, but that is not a legal closure and dark barrels keep transiting. Contested and thinner, not shut.
• TRANSITS TODAY (9 Jul) — best available data + our view — FRESHEST TRACKER: straits.live reads ~11 visible / ~12 dark transits in the last 24h and flags the Strait 'closed' — but that is its EDITORIAL read, not a legal closure, and dark barrels keep moving. LAST HARD COUNT: 5 Jul = 34 (IMF PortWatch, ~2-day lag, ~41% of its ~83/day baseline). OUR VIEW: visible has softened to the MID-TEENS (~15/day) on mourning-week caution — reduced from the ~35-45 early-July plateau, but reduced, NOT shut; dark ~57% of what moves; throughput ~4.8 mb/d. Hard confirmation of the 7-9 Jul drop lags ~2 days (Windward / Vortexa / Kpler / PortWatch).
• HOW OPEN — implied ~60s-70%, physical ~25-30% — IMPLIED openness (pricing / residual-premium) ~60s-70% — the war premium widened to ~$10-12/bbl with Brent at $80, but crucially gold FELL, so the market is NOT pricing a supply catastrophe. ACTUAL physical throughput ~25-30% of normal (visible + dark), softer on the week. Both numbers down but ORDERLY — consistent with a fragile Phase 3, not a closure.
• PHASE — Phase 3 Partial reopening HELD (prev Phase 3). Durability is fragile (-0.36) but stays ABOVE the -0.5 downgrade line, and Brent's 1-month momentum is still negative off the June peak, so neither gate forces a downgrade. The gate still fails on levels (throughput 4.8 < 12, dark 57 > 45) — Phase 3 is the sticky read. Contained, not collapsing.
• VELOCITY — NEGATIVE but BOUNDED. The exchange is in a second cycle, which is why the read is fragile — but it is bounded by the mourning-week context and the absence of a terminal strike, a formal closure, or a runaway oil move. The swing is post-burial (after 9 Jul): does the friction subside, or harden into a genuine resumption.

OFFICIAL RECORD · SoH — Statements · decisions as regards the Strait

• CEASEFIRE 'OVER' — rhetoric, in the mourning-week frame — Trump declared the 17 Jun ceasefire 'over' and threatened renewed strikes; Iran's Araghchi said Iran will respond 'with action', state TV threatening to close the Strait + hit Gulf facilities. Read in context: the escalation coincides with the mourning week for Khamenei — transition-period pressure and signalling, not (yet) a declared war resumption.
• SECOND STRIKE ROUND + SECOND GULF BARRAGE — contained — Late 8 Jul the US ran a second strike round; at dawn 9 Jul Iran hit the Gulf a second night (Kuwait intercepted 2 ballistic missiles + 13 drones; Bahrain hit again). A two-way exchange in its second cycle — but on military/base targets, intercepted, with NO strike on oil-export infrastructure and NO ground escalation.
• SHIPPING CAUTIOUS, NOT HALTED — War-risk premiums jumped and some lines are waiting out the exchange, but the corridor keeps moving a visible + dark flow. The commercial fleet is cautious, not in a full stoppage — the distinction between Phase 3 (contested) and Phase 2 (collapsed) this week.
• TERMINAL-STRIKE TRIGGER NOT FIRED — Trump threatened to 'take Kharg Island' but NO oil-export terminal has been struck (the March Kharg strike deliberately spared oil infrastructure). This is the single line to Phase 2/1 — unfired, so Phase 3 holds.
• PRICE — reasonably well-behaved — Brent ~$80 (+~8% intraday, some fade off the peak), WTI ~$75 — elevated but NOT a supply-loss spike; the glut + OPEC+ spare capacity still cap it. The tell: gold FELL to ~$4,030 (lowest since 2 Jul) on the hawkish-Fed dollar + higher yields — energy-inflation, not a refuge bid. Residual premium ~$10-12/bbl. A terminal strike or formal closure would be a $10-20 further leg — not the base case today.
• DIPLOMACY — frozen for the funeral, off-ramp post-burial — Doha talks stay suspended through Khamenei's burial (Mashhad, 9 Jul); Trump calls them a 'waste of time' but keeps the door ajar. The key window is AFTER the mourning week — whether the parties reconvene or the friction hardens.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-06-17 — Islamabad/Versailles MoU signed; toll-free 60-day reopening clause starts the recovery.
• 2026-06-22/26 — Switzerland Round 1 + Hormuz de-confliction → UPGRADE to Phase 4; the glut takes over.
• 2026-07-07 — IRGC strikes three tankers — the first ceasefire-era attack; the US revokes the Iran oil waiver. Brent +3% to $74. Phase 4 → FRAGILE.
• 2026-07-08 — TWO-WAY EXCHANGE: US strikes 80+ Iranian targets, Iran hits Gulf bases. Brent +6% to $78.78. DOWNGRADE to Phase 3 (partial reopening).
• 2026-07-09 — Contained second cycle during the mourning week: Trump says ceasefire 'over', a second US strike round, a second Iran Gulf barrage; oil well-behaved (~$80, gold fell), transits softer (~18/day) but not shut, no terminal struck. Phase 3 HELD.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction · accelerants · reversers

• DIRECTION — FRAGILE, two-sided, decided post-mourning. The exchange is contained (no terminal strike, no formal closure, oil orderly) but live. The swing is AFTER the 9 Jul burial: an off-ramp re-stabilises Phase 3; a continuation or a terminal strike takes it to Phase 2, then 1.
• TIP TO PHASE 2 — The altercations continue PAST the mourning week without a Doha resumption, OR a confirmed strike on a Gulf export terminal, OR a formal Iranian closure order, OR a runaway Brent break well through $85. Any of these downgrades to Phase 2 (fragile ceasefire) and, if a terminal is hit, Phase 1.
• THE OFF-RAMP — The mourning week ends 9 Jul; a Qatar/Oman-brokered pause + a post-burial Doha resumption before a terminal is hit stabilises Phase 3 and bleeds the premium. Given oil's orderly behaviour and the transition-week framing, this remains a live path.

SCENARIOS — Base · Bear · Bull

• BASE — The mourning-week friction subsides after the 9 Jul burial; the exchange stays on military targets, no terminal is hit, transits recover off the ~18/day soft patch; Brent holds high-$70s/low-$80s with a ~$10-12 premium; Phase 3 holds and firms.
• BEAR — The friction hardens into a genuine resumption post-burial, OR a terminal is struck / a formal closure declared; Phase 3 → 2 (and 1 on a terminal hit), the dark flow halts, Brent +$10-20 to $90-100, a supply-loss shock.
• BULL — A fast post-funeral off-ramp: both sides declare the exchange concluded, Doha resumes, the fleet re-enters and the premium bleeds; Phase 4 re-established over 2-3 weeks.

Bottom line. Phase 3 (Partial reopening) HELD — fragile / on-watch, not downgraded. The 8-9 Jul altercations (Trump's ceasefire-'over' rhetoric, a second US strike round, Iran's second Gulf barrage — Kuwait intercepted 2 ballistic + 13 drones) are noisy but CONTAINED, and coincide with the mourning week for the late Ayatollah Khamenei (burial Mashhad, 9 Jul) — this is NOT an all-out resumption of the war. The Strait is OPEN (contested, softer at ~15 visible transits/day + a dark flow, no terminal struck, no formal closure). Oil is REASONABLY WELL-BEHAVED: Brent ~$80 (+~8% but no supply-loss spike) and gold FELL to ~$4,030 (hawkish-Fed dollar, not a refuge bid) — the market is pricing transition-week friction, not a durable closure. We HOLD Phase 3 for another day or so. The downgrade to Phase 2 fires only if the altercations persist past the mourning week without an off-ramp, a terminal is actually struck, or a formal closure is declared. For now: fragile, but holding.