Strait of Hormuz Monitor — 13 Jul 2026

READ — Openness · phase · velocity

• IS IT OPEN? FORMALLY 'CLOSED' BY IRAN — BUT PHYSICALLY STILL MOVING — Two answers, and both matter. LEGALLY: on 12 Jul the IRGC Navy declared the Strait 'closed until further notice' after warning shots — the first formal Iranian closure claim of the cycle. PHYSICALLY: it is NOT shut — CENTCOM denies the closure, runs freedom-of-navigation ops, and the southern route still moves a (thin, mostly dark) flow; no mining, no terminal struck, no seizure campaign. straits.live's 'CLOSED — Day 134' remains editorial. Contested and dangerous, but open.
• TRANSITS — collapsed to a trickle; the DARK flow carries what moves (LOWER BOUNDS) — AIS-ON transit has all but stopped (Lloyd's List: ~zero >10k-dwt AIS-on crossings of the Southern Highway since ~9 Jul). TOTAL observed collapsed to ~6-9 crossings/day over the weekend strikes (vs ~18-22 earlier this month, ~130 pre-war). No fresh HARD daily print exists for 12-13 Jul — PortWatch's last is 5 Jul = 34 (~39% of the ~88/day norm), now 8 days stale; Kpler counts ~108 ships crossing 'over the weekend' (a multi-day aggregate, not a daily). OUR VIEW: ~7/day observable; dark share ~57-60% (Vortexa, off the 65.2% May peak); AIS-traceable crude ~2.5 mb/d (ShipFinder) + ~2 mb/d dark implies ~4.5 mb/d all-in. CAVEAT: GPS-spoofing (30+ Gulf jamming clusters), 'zombie-ship' fraud and ~half of traffic AIS-off make every count a LOWER BOUND.
• HOW OPEN — implied ~65-70%, physical ~20-25% and falling — IMPLIED openness (pricing) sits in the high-$60s%/low-70s% — Brent ~$79 carries a war premium that has RE-WIDENED on the flare-up, but the market is pricing a contested corridor, NOT a supply catastrophe (no $85+ break). OBSERVABLE physical throughput ~20-25% of normal and falling as the strikes re-shutter AIS-on traffic — but read that as a FLOOR (dark barrels + AIS gaps understate it). Both numbers down; the gap is the value of the monitor.
• PHASE — DOWNGRADE — Phase 3 Partial reopening -> Phase 2 Fragile ceasefire (COLLAPSED). The durability vector has collapsed (a formal closure declaration + a struck vessel + a third US strike round drive the diplomatic composite well below the -0.5 downgrade line), and the physical gate fails hard (throughput ~4.5 < 12, dark ~60% > 45). Phase 2, not 1, only because flows are not YET fully cut and no terminal is hit.
• VELOCITY — SHARPLY NEGATIVE. The pause is dead: kinetically the exchange is in its heaviest round yet, diplomatically Tehran has declared a closure, and the war premium is re-widening. All three vectors point the WRONG way. The swing is whether it stabilises at a contested Phase 2 or tips to Phase 1 on a terminal strike, mining, or a runaway oil break.

OFFICIAL RECORD · SoH — Statements · decisions as regards the Strait

• GFS GALAXY — a tanker/boxship struck, the pause broken (11 Jul) — The IRGC struck the UAE-owned, Cyprus-flagged containership GFS Galaxy ~9nm east of Oman for using an 'unauthorized route' — an engine-room fire, the crew abandoned ship, one crew member missing (10 of 11 Indian nationals rescued). This is a STRIKE, not a boarding/seizure — but it broke the 10-11 Jul silence and re-armed the whole cycle.
• FORMAL CLOSURE DECLARATION — the first legal claim of the cycle (12 Jul) — The IRGC Navy declared the Strait 'closed until further notice' after firing warning shots; Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said vessels on 'unauthorized routes' lose 'safe-passage guarantees'. This is the single most important development — the first FORMAL Iranian closure order this cycle (prior 'closed' reads were editorial). No Western authority recognises it; CENTCOM says the Strait stays open.
• US THIRD STRIKE ROUND + CENTCOM DENIAL (12 Jul) — The US struck ~140 targets around the Strait (missile batteries, air defences, IRGC fast-attack boats, comms; Qeshm Island) — ~300+ cumulative across the cycle; an Iranian navy officer (Lt. Dehghani) was killed at Jask. CENTCOM says forces are 'postured to ensure freedom of navigation' and the southern route is available — an explicit rejection of the closure.
• NO TERMINAL, NO MINING — the line to Phase 1 UNFIRED — Critically: NO oil-export terminal has been struck (Kharg is intact), NO mining is confirmed, and there is NO seizure/detention campaign. These are the triggers to Phase 1 (active closure) — all unfired. Trump is weighing a renewed naval blockade (USS Abraham Lincoln + USS George H.W. Bush moved into the Gulf of Oman; 20+ warships in theatre), which would be the escalation to watch.
• PRICE — a bump, not a shock — Brent ~$79 (+~4%, highest since 22 Jun), WTI ~$74 (+4%) — the war premium re-widened, but this is ~9% above pre-conflict, not a supply-loss blowout; the glut + OPEC+ (a fifth straight monthly hike) + record UAE output cap it. War-risk cover has re-spiked (~8x pre-crisis, ~$2.5m/VLCC; up to 5% of hull / $5-7.5m for US/UK/Israel-nexus vessels). The market is NOT pricing a closure.
• DIPLOMACY — strained, not (yet) collapsed — Araghchi was in Muscat (11-12 Jul) with Oman's FM; Oman floated a TWO-ROUTE split, Iran wants single joint management (fears being bypassed) — UNRESOLVED, but talks continued through the strikes. Trump calls the MoU 'over' yet keeps the channel open, demanding Iran formally state the Strait is open; US officials say Iran privately called the ship attack a hardliner 'mistake'. A collapse of THIS channel would be the next leg down.

WHERE WE'VE COME FROM — Trajectory

• 2026-07-07/08 — IRGC strikes three tankers (first ceasefire-era attack); a two-way US-Iran exchange (US strikes 80+ targets, Iran hits Gulf bases). DOWNGRADE Phase 4 -> Phase 3.
• 2026-07-09/10 — The contained exchange runs a second/third day through the mourning week; oil FALLS to ~$76, no terminal struck. Phase 3 HELD, tilting to de-escalation.
• 2026-07-11 — The guns fall silent, talks reportedly restarting (Araghchi to Oman); Phase 3 held, de-escalation tilt firming — with the caveat that a fresh strike would re-open the escalation path.
• 2026-07-11/12 (the reverser) — The pause COLLAPSES: IRGC strikes the GFS Galaxy (11 Jul), the US runs a third strike round (~140 targets, Qeshm), and the IRGC Navy FORMALLY declares the Strait 'closed' (12 Jul). The exact tail the 11 Jul read flagged.
• 2026-07-13 — DOWNGRADE Phase 3 -> Phase 2. Formal closure + struck vessel + third strike round; but physically open, Kharg untouched, no mining, Brent ~$79 (not a shock). Contested and dangerous, not shut.

WHERE IT'S HEADED — Direction · accelerants · reversers

• DIRECTION — ESCALATION, contained for now. The pause is dead and Tehran has declared a closure, but the Strait is physically open and the hard Phase-1 triggers are unfired. The swing is the next 24-72h: does it stabilise at a contested Phase 2 (talks limp on, no terminal hit), or tip to Phase 1?
• TIP TO PHASE 1 (active closure) — A confirmed strike on an oil-export terminal (Kharg), OR confirmed mining of the Strait, OR a vessel-seizure/detention campaign, OR a US naval blockade actually imposed, OR a Brent break well through $85. Any of these takes it to Phase 1 and a supply-loss repricing. Watch the two US carriers in the Gulf of Oman.
• PATH BACK TO PHASE 3 — A strike-pause + an Oman-brokered route understanding (the two-route vs single-management dispute resolved) + Tehran rescinding the closure order. Possible, but the channel is now under heavy strain and the burden of proof has flipped to escalation.

SCENARIOS — Base · Bear · Bull

• BASE — A contested Phase 2 holds: strikes continue at a controlled tempo, no terminal is hit, dark barrels keep the corridor at ~20-25% of normal, talks limp on in Muscat; Brent holds high-$70s/low-$80s with a ~$8-12 premium.
• BEAR — Phase 1: a Kharg/terminal strike, confirmed mining, or a US blockade shuts the corridor; the dark flow halts, Brent +$15-25 to $95-105, a supply-loss shock. The two carriers + Trump's blockade talk make this a live tail.
• BULL — A fast re-pause: an Oman route deal + a strike halt + Tehran rescinding the closure re-establishes Phase 3 within 1-2 weeks and bleeds the premium. Harder now that a formal closure is on the table.

Bottom line. DOWNGRADE — Phase 3 -> Phase 2 (Fragile ceasefire, COLLAPSED). The pause broke: the IRGC struck the containership GFS Galaxy (11 Jul), the US ran a third strike round (12 Jul; ~140 targets, Qeshm), and the IRGC Navy FORMALLY declared the Strait 'closed'. But Phase 2, NOT Phase 1: CENTCOM denies the closure, the Strait is physically OPEN, no terminal struck (Kharg intact), no mining, and Brent only ~$79 — the market is not pricing closure. The tip to Phase 1 (a Kharg/terminal hit, mining, a US blockade, or Brent >$85) is not in evidence. And into Monday's session the market SHOOK OFF the headlines as DE-ESCALATION SIGNALS re-emerged — Qatar/Pakistan mediating, US 'technical talks continue', Brent easing off its spike — so Phase 2 holds but the vector is turning less negative. A collapsed pause, formally 'closed' but physically open, with talks alive — possibly a brief one. Watch the two US carriers in the Gulf of Oman.